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Forums - Gaming - Possible 7th gen scenario

zorg1000 on 07 August 2013
Mensrea said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.

but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?

Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.

At the very least it's going to come close. It's already done ~5 million this year, so hitting at least 83-84 million after the holidays should be no problem. Then it'll probably drop to 6-7 million or so in 2014, which would put it at around 90 million (though a significant price drop could actually result in higher numbers). Another 10 million after that point is a completely reasonable estimation.


I think PS4 + lack of software after the holiday will cripple it more than you think.

Regardless if it makes it or not, it will come close which is all hes saying



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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DucksUnlimited on 07 August 2013
Mensrea said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.

but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?

Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.

At the very least it's going to come close. It's already done ~5 million this year, so hitting at least 83-84 million after the holidays should be no problem. Then it'll probably drop to 6-7 million or so in 2014, which would put it at around 90 million (though a significant price drop could actually result in higher numbers). Another 10 million after that point is a completely reasonable estimation.


I think PS4 + lack of software after the holiday will cripple it more than you think.

It's possible. But it will still be getting lots of third party support for quite a while, and that coupled with price drops makes reaching around 100 million units seem like a pretty likely outcome. The Ps2 sold close to 50 million units after the PS3 came out, so I don't see doing less than 1/3 of that number when the PS4 comes out as some crazy notion for the PS3.



zorg1000 on 07 August 2013
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.

but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?

Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.

At the very least it's going to come close. It's already done ~5 million this year, so hitting at least 83-84 million after the holidays should be no problem. Then it'll probably drop to 6-7 million or so in 2014, which would put it at around 90 million (though a significant price drop could actually result in higher numbers). Another 10 million after that point is a completely reasonable estimation.


I think PS4 + lack of software after the holiday will cripple it more than you think.

It's possible. But it will still be getting lots of third party support for quite a while, and that coupled with price drops makes reaching around 100 million units seem like a pretty likely outcome. The Ps2 sold close to 50 million units after the PS3 came out, so I don't see doing less than 1/3 of that number when the PS4 comes out as some crazy notion for the PS3.

one thing to consider is since this gen lasted so long, it might cut into PS3 post gen sales. But I do agree that it will continue to get solid support from 3rd parties next year and a price cut to $200 will def give it some extra life. Regardless if it makes 100m or not, it will come very close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DucksUnlimited on 07 August 2013
zorg1000 said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.

but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?

Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.

At the very least it's going to come close. It's already done ~5 million this year, so hitting at least 83-84 million after the holidays should be no problem. Then it'll probably drop to 6-7 million or so in 2014, which would put it at around 90 million (though a significant price drop could actually result in higher numbers). Another 10 million after that point is a completely reasonable estimation.


I think PS4 + lack of software after the holiday will cripple it more than you think.

It's possible. But it will still be getting lots of third party support for quite a while, and that coupled with price drops makes reaching around 100 million units seem like a pretty likely outcome. The Ps2 sold close to 50 million units after the PS3 came out, so I don't see doing less than 1/3 of that number when the PS4 comes out as some crazy notion for the PS3.

one thing to consider is since this gen lasted so long, it might cut into PS3 post gen sales. But I do agree that it will continue to get solid support from 3rd parties next year and a price cut to $200 will def give it some extra life. Regardless if it makes 100m or not, it will come very close.

PS2 was on the market for 5 years before the first next gen console came out. PS3 was on the market for 6 years before the first next gen console came out. it's really only a year difference. But I agree. While it could very well miss the 100 million mark, it will almost certainly get close.



platformmaster918 on 07 August 2013
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.

but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?

Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.

let's say about 6m more this year.  That puts it over 84m.  Next year it gets 7m so 91m total.  Then 5m for 96m total.  Then 3 then 1.  That's conservative considering it still has price drops to go and third world distribution.  So far it's having an awesome end of lifecycle.




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