zorg1000 said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
DucksUnlimited said:
Mensrea said:
platformmaster918 said:
Mensrea said:
Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.
360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.
I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime. |
but PS3 is probably going to end up at 100m NOW so being cheaper and keeping more market from MS wouldn't change anything?
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Yeah, I don't see it making 100 million. Everyone says that, but I'm going to call bullshit.
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At the very least it's going to come close. It's already done ~5 million this year, so hitting at least 83-84 million after the holidays should be no problem. Then it'll probably drop to 6-7 million or so in 2014, which would put it at around 90 million (though a significant price drop could actually result in higher numbers). Another 10 million after that point is a completely reasonable estimation.
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I think PS4 + lack of software after the holiday will cripple it more than you think.
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It's possible. But it will still be getting lots of third party support for quite a while, and that coupled with price drops makes reaching around 100 million units seem like a pretty likely outcome. The Ps2 sold close to 50 million units after the PS3 came out, so I don't see doing less than 1/3 of that number when the PS4 comes out as some crazy notion for the PS3.
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one thing to consider is since this gen lasted so long, it might cut into PS3 post gen sales. But I do agree that it will continue to get solid support from 3rd parties next year and a price cut to $200 will def give it some extra life. Regardless if it makes 100m or not, it will come very close.
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PS2 was on the market for 5 years before the first next gen console came out. PS3 was on the market for 6 years before the first next gen console came out. it's really only a year difference. But I agree. While it could very well miss the 100 million mark, it will almost certainly get close.
