PS2 had games to push its sales, the DVD player was secondary for most people, with PS3 it has a lack of games, at leas tthe non-hardcore/shovelware types

On current trends Wii might well reach 50%, but I doubt it will hold 50% and it will finish with less than 50%.

I doubt GTA IV or any individual game will make the difference.

The biggest threat to Wii is growth in HD TV and HD equipment and if BR sales start to grow (which will happen once format war is declared fully over). Looking at increasing growth of HD TV adoption its pretty obvious that many will be tempted to also have HD content to see on their expensive new TV. Now that might just be a standalone player, but it will likely boost PS3 sales and to a lesser extend 360 sales (I say this as really 360 doesn't hold up well right now as a choice for combined HD game console and player while PS3 does).

I was planning to get a Wii then a PS3 later but ended up getting new HD TV and reversed my order - now I'll get a Wii in a few months and it'll sit in one room with my widescreen CRT TV while the PS3 is already tucked below my HD TV.

 Actually

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=16584

Most HD TV owners don't use HD signals or service and have no interest in upgrading any thime soon, by the time they do,  it will be too late for the PS3, you sir are the minority

http://www.tvpredictions.com/hdwatching121006.htm 

HD service and HD discs are still a long way from being the majority, by that time, the PS3 will have been likely surpassed, both in quality and in price 

That seems to be US centric (second link didn't work). Sorry but US trails Japan, Scandanavia and some European countries with adoption of home entertainment tech = hell look at iPhone, all that hype and when they launch in Europe its like 'hell, this thing is cool and all but its not even 3G!'. I'm thinking globally. I'm pretty sure that current analysis is going to look off by middle of year (at least outside US).

 And the PS2 had lots of great games when it launched?  I don't think so Tim.   Compared to the games that came after a year on the market, the first year was full of bad software with the occasional gem in the mix.   And now, there are quite a few bad games for the PS3, but there are gems out there.  Sure, some are multi-plat games, but you can't deny that they are on the PS3 and are good games. 

 Prior to November, you could have gotten away by using the "PS3 has no games", but now there are enough good games out already and NONE of the big established series have released yet. (With exception of DMC4 which just did release).   This year, we have GTA4, MGS4, Socom, GT5, and potentially FF, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.   Just because there are only "roughly" 10 million PS3 owners doesn't mean that the games will stop coming out. 

 And you want to bring up the "Shovelware" arguement while touting the Wii?  Take a look at the majority of 3rd party games for the Wii.. They are mostly shovelware and/or PS2 ports that have been tweaked to use the Wiimote. 

I don't see the shovleware argument being as logical as DVD pushing sales. Plus it is not like shovleware is a good thing. I don't want the game industry to have a reputation for crapy quality. Just look how NFS, MOH, Madden, aand so many other terrible products sell millions. It is not like these are making a good impresion on use as fans, or devs and the industry.

Now one thing I would like to know is what product is going to come out in the next 7 years that will be more feature packed than the PS3 or 360. What other products will have:

-IPTV
-DVR
-Digital Downloads Service for HD movies/TV, music, games, and more
-Blu-ray player
-HD Games
-Internet

Their will be no ther products that can do all of that for under 200 dollars in 2010. The HD systems are the best of all worlds, and they are only getting better with time. People will get on board it just does not happen over night as I stated previously. The majority is never ready to move forward within the first year or two, but give them five and you will see a completly differant market.

Look historically the winning console always has the largest library and the larget amount of shovelware/nongamer games, hardcore gamers are a small fraction of the market jusding by the historical data, and likely even smaller this gen, and a lot of sales are probably going to be made off of games that most gamers would likely never buy

I mean even technophiles and early adopters aren't looking forward to switching over to Blu-ray or HD according to the surveys and you really think the average consumer is likely to make the switch, probably not, and by the time they do, it won't be able to help the PS3 or the 360

THis makes no sense to me whatsoever - why would you set a Wii up in the corner and an old CRT TV.  I've just bought a new HD TV last month and the Wii with the component cables looks beautiful.  It's about 10 times sharper than my old widescreen CRT TV.  The wife actually said to me "you go on about the HD TV and the 360 being HD - I cannot tell the difference between the two".

 You also state that Us is behind a lot of Europe with HD TV - In the UK I have 102 TV stations and only 2 is in High Def, the downloadable movies all have a HD equivelant and cost £1 more and I wont pay the extra £1.  People on here sate way too much importance on HD, not saying it's not important to some people but what I am saying is I cannot see the majority of people that opted for the Wii choosing to ditch Wiimote and non HDTV for the HD TV and standard controller to be honest.

KBG29 said

Now one thing I would like to know is what product is going to come out in the next 7 years that will be more feature packed than the PS3 or 360. What other products will have:

-IPTV  I already have this - get it with my Cable company, also has a 80GB HDD and can rec 3 progs at same time
-DVR dont even know what this is so I can live without it
-Digital Downloads Service for HD movies/TV, music, I have 13 movie channels and get a TV on Demand service with my Cable that offers me all of this, has over 500 movies and a vast selection of best TV programs.
-Blu-ray player This is a selling point and I do know people that own a PS3 for this reason alone.
-HD Games Will appeal to the more traditional gamer but I think this gen when it's a hard choice between Nintnedo's gameplay plan or Sony HD plan - the majority will go to Ninty.
-Internet dont even go there - I now have it on my Wii, DS, 2 laptops, desktop pc and works PC - guess which 2 dont get used?

Although the PS3 is a fantastic machine and it's gonna do well this gen I dont think the masses are gonna flock to it in a couple of years just cos they get a new TV and want these things.  All in one solutions are very rarely massively popular - if they were we'd all have TV DVD combi's  and one things thats always happened is people buy games consoles for games. 

 I personally cannot ever see that changing.

A good question would be this:

How many XBox owners actually exist to buy a Xbox360?

How many PS2 OWNERS (Meaning, subtract double buys, replacements, etc) to buy a PS3?


How many XBox/PS2 owners will actually buy an XBox360/PS3??? More? Less? 24 million XBox's? In about a year we will hit the XBox1-2 threshold.

@KGB29

You are letting your feelings run away with your analysis.

Accoridng to this cite, there are only 15.24M copies of GTA: SA -- almost 4M less than the number you quoted. (I might be slightly off on the decimal places, but the point remains salient, nevertheless).

You might be right on some of these points. But if you can't get the numbers right (at least close given that they are on the site), it is hard to take you seriously.

Related to that, many of the claims made in your sig. are speculation which may or may not happen. No one knows if Sony plans PS2 emulation -- unless you pay for it. EA games have heretofore been better on 360 this generation. And the PS3 BluRay better be as upgradable as they say since chipset 2.0 is coming (which will make 1.1 obsolete).

Mike from Morgantown