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Reasonable said:
On current trends Wii might well reach 50%, but I doubt it will hold 50% and it will finish with less than 50%.

I doubt GTA IV or any individual game will make the difference.

The biggest threat to Wii is growth in HD TV and HD equipment and if BR sales start to grow (which will happen once format war is declared fully over). Looking at increasing growth of HD TV adoption its pretty obvious that many will be tempted to also have HD content to see on their expensive new TV. Now that might just be a standalone player, but it will likely boost PS3 sales and to a lesser extend 360 sales (I say this as really 360 doesn't hold up well right now as a choice for combined HD game console and player while PS3 does).

I was planning to get a Wii then a PS3 later but ended up getting new HD TV and reversed my order - now I'll get a Wii in a few months and it'll sit in one room with my widescreen CRT TV while the PS3 is already tucked below my HD TV.

 Actually

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=16584

 

Most HD TV owners don't use HD signals or service and have no interest in upgrading any thime soon, by the time they do,  it will be too late for the PS3, you sir are the minority

 

http://www.tvpredictions.com/hdwatching121006.htm 

 

HD service and HD discs are still a long way from being the majority, by that time, the PS3 will have been likely surpassed, both in quality and in price 

 

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)