the only problem is 2-3 ps2's were 2nd and 3rd buys when their first one died. secondly casuals bout the ps2 cause of the dvd player. alot of those people that bought a ps2 has bought a wii and is only gonna buy one console. for example where i work (factory) at least 4 people own a ps2 in my department and none of them is interested in the ps3. but they are all interested in the wii. just ask around and you will notice this is happening world wide

 Yeah, because they couldn't release a new bundle, dvd drive, colored systems, or lower the price of the Wii ever. 

Even if they did, it's not like a $199 or $149 Wii would sell, right?  Yeah, that certainly wouldn't do anything for demand.

This is getting to become a bit rediculous. I am so sick of hereing that if the 360 and PS3 cut thier prices, Wii will follow suit and nothing will change. Get a grip on reality. Right now the PS3 and 360 are priced beyong a casual consumers price point. 349 and 399 are not impulse buy prices. Get a 2 as the first number and that changes real quick. When GTA4 hits and Wii is 249, and PS3 and 360 are at 299 things are going to change. Even if Wii then moves to 199, it will still have lost a lot of momentum due to the other two consoles beingon the edge of the acceptable price range.

GTA only sells to current PS3 and 360 owners? That is news to me. I guess all 19M people that own a copy of SA have already purchased a PS3 or 360. Kinda like every MGS, GT, Socom, Jak, Killzone, Getaway, Fable, and Too Human fan have already purchased either a PS3 or 360. Wait a second though, how come I am always hereing I will get this console when X game comes out? Everyone that has any intrest in any game should pick up the console it is in on day one according to this GTA idea. You can deny GTA all day, but come 4/28/08 you will see that HD consoles will move.

Blu-ray and digital downloads will have an impact on this race. Both Sony and MS will have Blu-ray and DDL services before the end of the year. It will effect console sales to a large extent. Their is to mcuh quality and conveince thier for the masses to pass up. Especially PSN, were else are people going to be able to stream movies and not have to pay a general service fee? Even XBL is cheaper than paying the cable company for on demand every month. Weather some people on these boards like it or not the major gaming markets, the major TV channels, The major movie companies are all going high def. So yet again, downplay Blu-ray and DDL as much as you want, but it is innevatable that they will have an impact on this generation.

Could the Wii reach 50%? Yes. Based on what is possable and veryb probable in the coming months and year? Highly doubtful. If it does not happen this year will it ever? Not a chance.

Ummm...250 is not the mass market sweet spot KBG, $199 and below is, over 70% of PS2's were sold after it dropped below $200, Wii sales will likely explode once Nintendo decides to drop, right now all Nitnendo needs to worry about is getting enough production made, PS3 and 360 likely have nothing capable of stopping Wii at this point based on everything we've seen, the games and hardware aren't going to push them beyond Wii sales, if you're hoping they will you will probably be disappointed

I am glad to see that you have in your sig the year 2015 an Wii in the same sentence. That had better still be this generation, because their is no reason for new consoles any sooner than that.

Now as far as prices go. 249 is a hole hell of a lot more casual then 349 or 399. I don't care if it is not the absolute threshhold price, but it is significatly more acceptable than the other two. Another thing, the only reason the PS2 sold so many units at 199 and under is because Sony dropped the price to 199 after the first year it was on the market. had they waited a year longer they would have only sold 60% at 199 or below. really that is jut like saying in 2013 that Sony sold 96% of PS3's at 499 or under. Of course they did, because they sold less than 4m at 599.

As far as the games and hardware not pushing consoles, I hole heartedly agree. IS the attatch rate on the PS2 20+ to 1? Not even close. However I do not personally know a PS2 owner with less than 25 games. I have over 150, my dad, brother, and grandpa are over 100. In my extended family we have 57 PS2's, we all played online together, and we all have over 40 games. Out of all of my friends I know over 20 people that own PS2's, about 3 that own Xboxes and 3 that own Gamecubes. Everyone of those people had at least 30 games for their systems, execpt the Gamecube guys how have about 12-15 each. This tells me based on my limited data that games do not sell systems, unless it is a nintendo system. If games were selling systems, the attatch rates would be significatly higher. So then what sells systems? In the case of the last generation, DVD's. Even if some people don't want to believe it, more than 50% of PS2's are exclusive DVD players. Now mabye these people sometimes rent a game, but for the most part that thing is a DVD player.

No move to this gen, which consoles play HD content or are content connected with the internet? The PS3 and the 360 are the correct responses. But no one cares about HD content, and not enough people have high speed internet. Take a look at the year 2000. Most people were just getting into dial-up, and almost no one High Speed internet, and DVD was only 5% of the market. Now look at 2008, 10% of people have HD-DVD or Blu-ray, DVD is the new king of movies, only a select few don't have at least dial-up, and High Speed internet is only becoming more, and more widespread with 100Mbps connections by years end for the US. So what will things look like in 2016, well no one can tell for sure, but their is a logical theory. Blu-ray is the King of Movies, Digital Downloads are about 15%, Only a select few have low speed broadband, and many have High Speed broadband at over 256Mbps. Were is the cheapest and easiest way to get what the people need? The PS3 and 360, and for the Technophiles a PS4 or a Xbox3 or a Wii 2.

I gotta disagree, DVD was already popular by the time that PS2 came out, peeople wnated it, msot people aren't interested in the Blu-ray, in fact a recent survey showed most HD TV owners aren't interested in upgrading, so it will be a long time before Blu-ray hits the big time, and by then PS3 will not be the cheapest blu-ray drive, so it wont benefit from the media format as much as you think, also HD doean't seem to matter, as history has shown never has the most powerful systme won, so that knocks PS3 out, 360 is only popular in NA, so that gets knocked out leaving only the Wii, and the Wii will likely sell 70% plus after it drops below $199, the machine targets such a vast audience that it will be a good long time before demand goes away

Also Interestingly in spite of the fact that you say all your friends have doxzens of PS2 games, you know that PS2 had low attach rates last gen, even its most popular games didn't get above 15% attach rate, now they still sold, but it is interesting to note that likely most PS3 games have a ceiling which likely won't allow them to push the PS3 beyond the Wii, since like we saw with DMC4, it may be that those who want the hardcore games already have the hardcore systems, especially if only 15-30 million pople bought most of the hardcore titles

@KBG29 "Another thing, the only reason the PS2 sold so many units at 199 and under is because Sony dropped the price to 199 after the first year it was on the market."

Ahem, Ps2 costed US$299.99 October 26, 2000 and was dropped to US$199.99 May 14, 2002, just to correct you. (At N.A.)

In Europe it was €500 November 23, 2000 and sales exploded when new price €299 was intoduced September 28, 2001. (This in less than year, so which region are you talking about ?)

@Avin
If games did not push the PS2 to the sales it currently has, then what is going to push the Wii to the hights of even the PS2. You also have to remember that PS1and 2 were also very unreliable systems, and that accounted for a very high amount of people buying 2 or 3 each. The Wii has neither of these advantages. The 360 has both, and the PS3 has 1. As far as Blu-ray goes, yes people do want it they just don't know it yet. It is the same thing that happens at the generation shift in any media. Record to Tapes, Tapes to CD's, CD's to DDL, VHS to DVD, DVD to Blu-ray, SDTV to HDTV, PS1 to PS2, PS2 to PS3. When you ask a general audiance if they care about somthing the first year or two after its launch the majority will always say no. That is why their are early adaptors, thouse who can wait, and thouse that will grab it once it is on its way out. In the Case we have right now their is a format that refuses to wave the white flag, which is not helping matters any. Once they are gone the move will begin to happen rapidly.

@Punisher
Well oct 2000 to may 2002 is 1 year 6 months, and from nov 2000 to spet 2001 is10 months, so I guess on average I was about 4 months off. I don't really think that makes a big deal. Sony had a rediculous amount of momentum at that point and all they did was add to the fire. It would be the same as if Nintendo all of the sudden started producing 4m Wii's a month and dropped the price to 149. The only differance is Sony had the momentum, and when thier rivals even hinted Sony slammed the door in their face.

Did I say games didn't push PS2, nope, i said its most popular games, the hardcore games have a cieling which will prevent PS3 from reaching Wii heights, no what pushed PS2 was shovelware/non-hardcore games.

it will be a long time before Blu-ray becomes big, and by then, PS3 will not be the player of choice

I would like to see the sales of dvd players worldwide weekly, because I would be blown away if any sinlge standalone outsells PS2 even today.