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I gotta disagree, DVD was already popular by the time that PS2 came out, peeople wnated it, msot people aren't interested in the Blu-ray, in fact a recent survey showed most HD TV owners aren't interested in upgrading, so it will be a long time before Blu-ray hits the big time, and by then PS3 will not be the cheapest blu-ray drive, so it wont benefit from the media format as much as you think, also HD doean't seem to matter, as history has shown never has the most powerful systme won, so that knocks PS3 out, 360 is only popular in NA, so that gets knocked out leaving only the Wii, and the Wii will likely sell 70% plus after it drops below $199, the machine targets such a vast audience that it will be a good long time before demand goes away

 

Also Interestingly in spite of the fact that you say all your friends have doxzens of PS2 games, you know that PS2 had low attach rates last gen, even its most popular games didn't get above 15% attach rate, now they still sold, but it is interesting to note that likely most PS3 games have a ceiling which likely won't allow them to push the PS3 beyond the Wii, since like we saw with DMC4, it may be that those who want the hardcore games already have the hardcore systems, especially if only 15-30 million pople bought most of the hardcore titles



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)