Mario 64 won in N64, Mario Kart won in GC, Smash will win in Wii

Damn, I neve realized MKDD outsold SSBM. 

I think MKwii has the potential to beat SSBB because it is a game that would be easier for a casual gamer to play but we won't know until Nintendo tells us more about it. I will but both.

the only post-snes, pre-wii game my wife played was Mario Kart
the only post-snes, pre-wii game my sis-in-law played was Mario Kart

EVERYONE likes mario kart, except maybe some 'uber-hardcore'...while SOME casuals and most hardcore like SSBB

as for the non-gamers, mario kart will have an edge there as well...and even more so when u look at sales of MK:DS...some non-gamers were introduced to it on the DS and will now buy it for the Wii

it can be NO BETTER than double dash and it'll still outsell Brawl...casuals/non-gamers won't care about how much better it is than DD...only gamers will care about that...it can get a 7.5 rating and still sell >10mil copies

no it wont, i think they'll both have the same legs but SSBB will have much stronger opening, also SSBM was best selling game on gc.

WTF?! Why is there so much bigotry on this site? I don't know whether sexism is acceptable in the US but it isn't in the UK. Would you put "Smash Bros wont get gays, they don't like fighting much" or Smash Bros wont get Asians, they don't like fighting much"? I certainly hope you wouldn't so don't generalise about women either. We are all individuals and lumping us all together just because of the shape of our genitals is bigoted and insulting. FYI fighters are my favourite genre but my fiance hates them. Less of the generalisations please!

Well MK has outsold SB on the last two systems on a worldwide basis (though just barely on the GC), so I wouldn't expect that trend to stop now. Especially, as you've pointed out, that the Wii appeals to more casual gamers and MK is more accessible to that group.

incorrect; Mario Kart DD outsold SSBM by 200k

the closeness of the 2 was because gc only sold 22mil and had a much higher % of 'gamers' and 'core gamers' than wii has/will have

last I checked, Mario Kart DS wasn't doing too shabby at 9.5 mil sales

the snes/n64 karts also sold around 9mil each thanks to a more casual user base and more console sales

mario kart wii will only be beaten by wii fit, wii play of the currently announced games (including any ps360 games as well)...ssbb will be 4th behind mario kart, but it won't beat mario kart

Right there goes your point about girls, Origin

 Seriously, I personally would also think that Mario Kart should appeal to more people, but the opposite seems to be the case. I guess that quite a lot hardcores prefer Smash by a wide margin, so more hardcores will buy Smash in the end. Also, I think that amongst the gamers formerly known as casuals and now self-called hardcores (i.e. the playstation crowd) Smash is way more popular than Kart which will help Smash's sales of course. On the other hand, Kart will appeal to more casuals as you said, so it'll probably be close.

My math says that while both franchises were equal in sales on the Cube, the PS2 owners that changed ship and own a Gamecube now will make Smash the winner.