This was reported around E3 but we now have reaffirmation. This is purely 1st party titles! We also have confirmation that new titles will be announced at Gamescon.

"I’m sure you heard from [SCE Worldwide Studios boss] Shu [Yoshida] that he has—just his studios—he has 30 games in development. 20 of them are going to ship within the first year of the console’s life, and of those, 12 are new IP.

A couple things to consider:
1) This does not mean PS4 exclusive, they could appear on psvita or ps3 aswell.
2) Year one may include this holiday.

Old IP:

1.Killzone Shadow Fall
2.Infamous Second Son
3.? (GT6.5/PS4 edition)
4.? (The Last of US PS4 edition)
5.?
6.?
7.?
8.?

New IP

1.The Order 1886
2.Hohokum 
3.Doki Doki Universe
4.Knack
5.Driveclub
6.?
7.?
8.?
9.?
10.?
11.?
12.?

I'm almost more excited for the establish IPs, reason being they are more likely to be huge AAA titles as sony doesn't tend to make sequels for their smaller indie titles. I do love Indie titles though.

Source: http://uk.ign.com/articles/2013/06/24/20-games-12-new-franchises-coming-to-playstation-4-in-year-one

Froget about the Last of us, unless it just a port, wich sounds like a waste of time.

The sequal wont be ready for another 2 to 3 years. GoW4 isnt gonna happen aswell until another 2 years. Quantic dream is still finishing beyond two souls, so its a no-go for another 2 years.

TLOU port would be quite a big deal IMO. I know a lot of 360 owners who really want this game but are unwilling to buy a PS3 (which is still rather expensive) just for one title, the generation is at an end, theres almost no point investing in a ps3 with next gen mere months away. A Next gen port could act as a bigger system seller for the PS4 than the current game is for the PS3, it could be the game to push current 360 owners to pick a PS4 over a X1. Just my take on it.

It won't require that much effort because they've already got the engine working on PS4. A small team from naughty dog could work on it for 6month whilst the others help with team 2's project or start planning another new IP or sequel to TLOU.

You're just saying that because of the current hype for the game. It will die out. Besides the PS4 is garanteed to get the sequal. Thats all the motivation you need if you're a fan. Besides, Sony wants you to buy PS3's. Thats why they still support it. The console is still gonna last another 2 years. buying a new one now is actually a really good idea.

The hype will of course be reignited if a next gen port was announced. Core gamers won't wanna pick up a ps3 this holiday or in 2014, not when there are shiny consoles out with such stella line ups. And its not like the ps3 will be $99 any time soon.

However, I did forget that sony have gaikai lined up, so I guess a port won't be necessary. Still, I believe that game could offer a lot to the ps4 early in its life.