A while ago I made a topic explaining what was actually happening in the background of the DRM annoucement : Console manufacturer are negotiating to find a compromise (or not) to please the stakeholders (government agencies, copyrights lobbies, big publishers) and gamers (more or less).

But that was kind of hypocritical of me because I know exactly what is happening and also what WILL happen, because if follows the same patterns as any other corruption of laws, conditions, relations between citizens/consumers and state/corporations, here's what you can see :

1. Will the PS4 have same said restriction? Close enough : the camera will always watch you play, the game will require an online installation (which is the activation equivalent), most publishers will chose to have DRM and fees for used-games because it goes with the times and the stakeholders behind.

2. Will Xbone and PS4 be successful then? At the beginning yes. I'm not allowed to describe what I think of people who will buy the Xbone, like the many who bought Sim City, but people who will buy the PS4 thinking it'll be different will probably fall in the same trap.

3. So will manufacturers and publishers make more profits ? No. It will be the end of them as we know it, of course for many market changes that are unevitable and already here, but mainly because they'll be their own reason of demise.

Because a console release is a HUGE investment on the long term, everybody who has the money and the low IQ to buy these console will do so not far from the initial release. Has for games, only wealthy people will be able to buy lots of them at the release fee. Except most people won't be able to. And also that's why most other non-AA or well advertised games won't sell a lot.

4. So most gamers in this recession who will see these console has completely screwing their rights, but also simply being way too expensive will turn to Wii U and PC (unless there's a homebrew which is unlikely), the rise of profit for the consoles and their games will be slow, then stagnating, then will completely fall.

5. Other upcoming mobile platform, alternative media boxes, or consoles, and PCs will completely canibalized consoles with their diversified, lower priced, open and hackable platforms. There will be a gap between big publisher and their AA title that they'll have to sell at a higher premium price to fewer people, and all the competing F2P or cheap or sales offers on mobile or PC platforms.

lol no.

And lol @ "low IQ".

Hah, no. Once everything is digital--like on the devices you claim will destroy consoles--none of this will matter very much. Consoles will still be the most simple and the most accessible, which is what is the most important to the consumer base in general.

People complain about it, they will bitch about it for like a year. When the next Call of Duty, Mass Effect, Halo, Battlefield or whatever comes out, gamers are going to buy the console, they might not like it, but they are going to do it anyway. And at the end of the gen not many people will even mention DRM.

Companies know this, and they will take advantage of it.

I love the notion that "only wealthy people will be able to afford games" in the upcoming generation, because reasons dammit!

Pop quiz... do you know how much the average SNES / Genesis game cost in the US back in the early - mid 90's?

A: $59.99 MSRP, same as today. Except that if you take inflation into account, games back in the 16-bit era were WAY more expensive.. a $60 game back when the SNES launched in 1991 for example would be the equivalent of $100 in today's money!

Meanwhile, $60 in today's money is like $35 in 1991 money... meaning, today's games cost $5 more than what freaking GAME BOY games cost back in the early 90's!

But yeah, I can totally see how nobody will be able to afford $60 games, and yet magically still be able to afford $300-$500 tablets and cellphones every couple of years.

I loved that part.

I don't agree with his analysis either. There's no logic in that DRM will lead to higher prices.

Because in their minds, having digital-only games or games that can't be traded or purchased used will mean that publishers can charge whatever the hell they want for their games.

Just look at those sky-high prices on Steam for example...