You really shouldn't.

First off, I think some people misunderstand the intention of this analysis of January sales data ...

With that said, I think people should be cautious if they expect dramatically higher sales than this from multiple consoles. Without including the PS2, this analysis represents a 2.5% growth in the ammount of hardware sold in the industry this year; if you add 10,000,000 units to represent the number of PS2 (5,000,000), GBA (1,000,000), and additional units of these systems (4,000,000) there would be a full 15% growth in the industry.

So you really think that Sony will cut $200 from the PS3's price in 24 months while MS only cuts $100 from the 360's price in 36 months? The Wii might drop to $199 late in the year but it has to reach retail saturation before price drops are even considered.

Anyway, Sony's quarterly is only two hours away!

*looks at my sig*

Somebody's on to something here...

:P 

Interesting analysis, but hard to judge Wii because this month was a supply constrained month, next week will likely be a large bump week for Wii sales, but as you admitted it will be higher than your annualized adjusted, your 25 million is more likely for Wii than your 20 million analysis. As for price drops, Wii is unlikely to drop this year, merely because they have no need to, they have yet to achieve any where near satiation at this price point