Interesting analysis, but hard to judge Wii because this month was a supply constrained month, next week will likely be a large bump week for Wii sales, but as you admitted it will be higher than your annualized adjusted, your 25 million is more likely for Wii than your 20 million analysis. As for price drops, Wii is unlikely to drop this year, merely because they have no need to, they have yet to achieve any where near satiation at this price point
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)
