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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

schuelma on 13 August 2019
HylianSwordsman said:
schuelma said:

There is no need to get hostile. I certainly wasn't. 

I've been tracking comgnet for years- I still use it as a very rough reference but its completely factual to point out that its ratio is not nearly what it used to be and especially for Switch games they are especially off.

I'm not trying to convince Boutros of anything- just making the point that if we're going to look at preorders compared to Lets Go (which, IMO is be far the best comparison to use), double packs on comgnet will count as 2 game sales on famitsu and the comparison with Lets Go looks better. That's all.

I call BS. You've been here for years, but only come out of the woodwork today because someone slighted Pokemon? I've been following this thread since its current inception when I was a lurker, and with an account for years, this isn't the first double pack, it's just the first double pack that didn't completely sell out by now. I've never seen the non-double versions take this long to catch up to the double version before, they should both have surpassed it by now. The ratio is about 1:2000 now instead of 1:1000 like before, but even if you double the points of the Switch games, they still wouldn't even be on track to outsell Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon. That's excusable with a spinoff like Let's Go, but it's just weird to see it happen with a mainline entry, especially the first mainline entry both for a new gen and for a new system. I'm sure the title will sell fine worldwide, but the brand actually seems to have been damaged by the failure to bring the national dex to the new gen, and Nintendo and the Pokemon Company will not be happy with Game Freak to see that.

Again, we'll see in November but in my opinion straight comparisons to non-Switch titles are just not going to have as much value. We've seen it time and time again over the past 2 years that comgnet is even less reliable for Switch titles. 

I'll put it this way- even with another decline in mainline sales, there is absolutely zero conceivable scenario where Sword and Shield sells less FW than ultra sun/ultra moon. Yes, we could see a decline from sun and moon- but there is no chance we are going to see FW sales halved, which is what you're claiming is likely based on comgnet points 3 months before release.



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HylianSwordsman on 13 August 2019
schuelma said:
HylianSwordsman said:

I call BS. You've been here for years, but only come out of the woodwork today because someone slighted Pokemon? I've been following this thread since its current inception when I was a lurker, and with an account for years, this isn't the first double pack, it's just the first double pack that didn't completely sell out by now. I've never seen the non-double versions take this long to catch up to the double version before, they should both have surpassed it by now. The ratio is about 1:2000 now instead of 1:1000 like before, but even if you double the points of the Switch games, they still wouldn't even be on track to outsell Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon. That's excusable with a spinoff like Let's Go, but it's just weird to see it happen with a mainline entry, especially the first mainline entry both for a new gen and for a new system. I'm sure the title will sell fine worldwide, but the brand actually seems to have been damaged by the failure to bring the national dex to the new gen, and Nintendo and the Pokemon Company will not be happy with Game Freak to see that.

Again, we'll see in November but in my opinion straight comparisons to non-Switch titles are just not going to have as much value. We've seen it time and time again over the past 2 years that comgnet is even less reliable for Switch titles. 

I'll put it this way- even with another decline in mainline sales, there is absolutely zero conceivable scenario where Sword and Shield sells less FW than ultra sun/ultra moon. Yes, we could see a decline from sun and moon- but there is no chance we are going to see FW sales halved, which is what you're claiming is likely based on comgnet points 3 months before release.

I hope you're right. And welcome to VGChartz. Sorry if I came across as hostile. I mostly just meant it to be snarky, because lots of people like to defend their favorite games and consoles against even the slightest negative interpretation, and while I've definitely been guilty of that at times, I get tired of it sometimes if I think things really just do seem that bad and feel like people are just trying to deny bad news. Don't let me scare you away. Honestly, I think Pokemon Sw/Sh will do fine worldwide overall, but that the controversy will put a noticeable dent in things, and while I personally don't support the controversy because I'm just too excited to play the first proper home console Pokemon game to care, I am concerned on how it might impact Game Freak.



schuelma on 13 August 2019
HylianSwordsman said:
schuelma said:

Again, we'll see in November but in my opinion straight comparisons to non-Switch titles are just not going to have as much value. We've seen it time and time again over the past 2 years that comgnet is even less reliable for Switch titles. 

I'll put it this way- even with another decline in mainline sales, there is absolutely zero conceivable scenario where Sword and Shield sells less FW than ultra sun/ultra moon. Yes, we could see a decline from sun and moon- but there is no chance we are going to see FW sales halved, which is what you're claiming is likely based on comgnet points 3 months before release.

I hope you're right. And welcome to VGChartz. Sorry if I came across as hostile. I mostly just meant it to be snarky, because lots of people like to defend their favorite games and consoles against even the slightest negative interpretation, and while I've definitely been guilty of that at times, I get tired of it sometimes if I think things really just do seem that bad and feel like people are just trying to deny bad news. Don't let me scare you away. Honestly, I think Pokemon Sw/Sh will do fine worldwide overall, but that the controversy will put a noticeable dent in things, and while I personally don't support the controversy because I'm just too excited to play the first proper home console Pokemon game to care, I am concerned on how it might impact Game Freak.

Fair enough and its absolutely fair to wonder whether the controversy will impact sales. I'm not a diehard Pokemon fan or anything- I just think its too early to say anything definitive, especially when comgnet has absolutely lost some of its predictive value this generation.

cheers.



ZODIARKrebirth on 14 August 2019

Great day for persona, seems the persona ip is the new FF in Japan😄



Bofferbrauer2 on 14 August 2019

Seems to me like Switch gamers want to buy DQ XI S first. Maybe Pokemon preorders will rise after that game released?



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Rob5VGC on 14 August 2019

AL, SST, and Ryza increase. Dat P5 BOOSTO! Nice.



outlawauron on 14 August 2019

It kinda funny to see the random boosts for some games. 5 orders for a niche visual novel??



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Boutros on 14 August 2019



ZODIARKrebirth on 14 August 2019

Getting over 100 Points shouldn't be a Problem now for iceborne



DreadPirateRoberts on 15 August 2019

In terms of Pokemon, one of the challenges right now is that we don't know how much of an impact the digital vouchers are having on these games. The vast gulf between physical sales and overall shipments for SMM2 suggests that it is significant. Odds are high that Fire Emblem is also being dramatically impacted. Between that and the ever increasing unreliability of COMGNet as a proxy for the Japanese market as a whole, it is just about impossible to draw any huge conclusions here. As it is, SwSh is tracking well ahead of LGPE.