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Forums - Sales Discussion - COMG! Japan Pre-order Chart Thread - Daily updates!

benji232 on 20 November 2013
Yakuzaice said:
benji232 said:

It definetly won't push/need to push that much hardware for it to pull 150k+ FW in Japan. Let's assume that it will finish at around 80 points which would equate to a first week of around 100-110k. By then, you merely need another 40-50k new wiiU purchasers in order to achieve that 150k first week. Not 145k/230k/308k. 

You're still acting like that is a unique factor for the Wii U.  Sure, if 3D World reaches 80 points and has the same units to points ratio as 3D Land, it would have a first week around 105k (though neither of these things are guaranteed).  However you are neglecting the fact that such a ratio was also achieved with 145k 3DS sales that week.  The hardware boost is already factored into the numbers listed for the last four Mario games.  If you removed the 80k increase the 3DS received that week (and assume none of the baseline purchasers also got 3D Land), you would have 1004 units per point.  If this were applied to 3D World it would give about 80k+hardware boost.

Well it kinda is, because 3D world is launching on the smallest installbase by far out of those 3 games you mentionned (please correct me if I am wrong, however I am almost sure that this is the case). And I can not see someone preordering 3dworld and just wait for it to release to buy both the system and the game itself. They will most likely just purchase the game and the console at the same time or simply preorder the game and buy the console at the same time.  



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

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Yakuzaice on 20 November 2013
benji232 said:

Well it kinda is, because 3D world is launching on the smallest installbase by far out of those 3 games you mentionned (please correct me if I am wrong, however I am almost sure that this is the case). And I can not see someone preordering 3dworld and just wait for it to release to buy both the system and the game itself. They will most likely just purchase the game and the console at the same time or simply preorder the game and buy the console at the same time.  

The install base for the Wii U was zero before NSMBU was out.  Also, while the install base for the 3DS was larger when 3D Land released, that week saw a 6.6% increase in install base.  That is quite a bit larger than the 40-50k increase you postulated for the Wii U.  The equivalent would be ~76k for the Wii U.

Regardless of that, those factors you mention are true for every game in varying degrees.  When we compare COMG points to first week results, any additive effect of hardware sales has already been factored in.  You can't just add another boost due to hardware without correcting for the hardware boost for other games.

So to get to 150k+ you are using

1. Ending at 80 points.  Possible, but it would require a very substantial final day.
2. Having a unit to point ratio equivalent to the highest of the last four Mario platformers.
3. A 40-50k hardware increase.
4. This hardware increase will result in a sales increase above and beyond that of 3D Land despite it having its own substantial hardware bump.

Now maybe it will get 40 points tomorrow and all of these comparisons will be for naught.  However, as it stands, there is little to no evidence using COMG numbers that it is a given that 3D World will have a first week of 150k+.



Michael-5 on 20 November 2013
Yakuzaice said:
benji232 said:
Mario 3D world 150k+ first week seems like a given at this point. Hopefully it will have some very long legs.

While on the one hand, it seems hard to believe Mario could do less than 150k, none of the numbers make this a given.

COMG/Media Create

NSMBU: 200 pts, 164k
NSMB2: 384 pts, 408k
3D Land: 262 pts, 343k
Galaxy 2: 313 pts, 340k

The best units per point ratio was 1309.  The worst was 820.  If 3D World matches the best ratio, it will need 115 points to hit 150k, or a 49 point increase tomorrow.  If it matches the worst, it will need 183 points, or a 117 point increase.

Also the only Wii U game to break 150k first week so far is NSMBU.  The next highest were Monster Hunter and Pikmin.  Monster Hunter was 75 pts, 106k.  Pikmin 74 pts, 93k.  While I still think 150k is possible, the data here does not indicate that.

So SM3DW is looking to finish in the 70 pt range, which according to your data suggests around 100k week 1.

I think SM3DW will do above 150k though because it's not the type of game you pre-order. Wii Party U ended with what 32 pts? sold 76k week 1.



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Yakuzaice on 20 November 2013
Michael-5 said:

So SM3DW is looking to finish in the 70 pt range, which according to your data suggests around 100k week 1.

I think SM3DW will do above 150k though because it's not the type of game you pre-order. Wii Party U ended with what 32 pts? sold 76k week 1.

It's not like I'm comparing it to other series or genres, all the other games are Mario platformers.  Why is 3D World not the type of game you preorder, but 3D Land or NSMBU are?

Why would Wii Party U be a better comparison?  Wii Party U sold as it did because of bundles that included 2-3 games+wii remote+karaoke subscription for only slightly more than the previous Wii U SKUs which contained none of that.  Let's put it this way.  If Wii Party U had been swapped out for Sonic Lost World, how much do you think the bundles would have sold?  If it is around the same, do you think 100% of those buyers would have purchased Wii Party U?



GuyDuke on 20 November 2013

Curious to see what 3D World's sales will be with such a low COMG score.



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kopstudent89 on 20 November 2013
Yakuzaice said:
benji232 said:
Mario 3D world 150k+ first week seems like a given at this point. Hopefully it will have some very long legs.

While on the one hand, it seems hard to believe Mario could do less than 150k, none of the numbers make this a given.

COMG/Media Create

NSMBU: 200 pts, 164k
NSMB2: 384 pts, 408k
3D Land: 262 pts, 343k
Galaxy 2: 313 pts, 340k

The best units per point ratio was 1309.  The worst was 820.  If 3D World matches the best ratio, it will need 115 points to hit 150k, or a 49 point increase tomorrow.  If it matches the worst, it will need 183 points, or a 117 point increase.

Also the only Wii U game to break 150k first week so far is NSMBU.  The next highest were Monster Hunter and Pikmin.  Monster Hunter was 75 pts, 106k.  Pikmin 74 pts, 93k.  While I still think 150k is possible, the data here does not indicate that.

I think it will have a much higher ratio than those games since preorders won't determine the SM3D World's fate as mch as other games. 

Prediction:

140k FW

Wii U = 50k for the week



ktay95 on 20 November 2013

when do we find out what God Eater 2 sold FW??
I know not really where I should ask but Im sure someone knows here??



BaldrSkies on 20 November 2013
ktay95 said:
when do we find out what God Eater 2 sold FW??
I know not really where I should ask but Im sure someone knows here??


4Gamer.net should post Media Create numbers in about 2 hours.



SnakeDrake on 20 November 2013

Its here!!!!

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=172645



 

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benao87 on 20 November 2013

Well, it appear that some people will be dissapointed. I wasn't that off with PSV, but overestimated PSP.



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