SplatO_On wow...
Although, I'm wondering if spla2oon will slow down on comg when the pre-orders ( currently only comg accept pre-orders for it ) will open for all of the other major retailers... I guess it should!
| the_dengle said: I don't really get the Yokai Watch 2 comparison. That game launched 3 years into the 3DS's life. It sold over 1.3 million first week. That's practically impossible for Splatoon 2 to manage just a few months after the Switch launch. For comparison, Monster Hunter 3G released mid-Holiday season like 10 months after the 3DS launched, and sold about 525k first week. Mario Kart 7 was around 430k first week. It's hard to imagine Splatoon 2 can beat either of those! I don't know how they fared on COMG though. |
I mostly wanted to compare them because their original releases went through very similar trends. Splatoon opened up decently, sold over 90% of its lifetime numbers through legs (word of mouth). YW1 sold pretty bad first week, but the anime gave it legs even better than Splatoon. They even ended with fairly close LT numbers (1.34m for YW1, 1.52m for Splatoon).
And like Ryng Tolu said, the Switch should be nearing 2 million units by the time Spla2n releases. It isn't completely impossible to match YW2 numbers.
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| Ryng_Tolu said: At this point, 5 million is starting to looks like a pecsimist prediction, AND before someone tell me that's not gonna happen, i was thinking 5 million lifetime with 500k first week. Now we are looking at one million sold only first week, so... |
You're fucking alive again, Ryng! We missed you.
| the_dengle said: I don't really get the Yokai Watch 2 comparison. |
We're on COMG! thread so, I don't think we are comparing (even though they're important) FW sales, but COMG! points trend for those games. Firstly, is because it's the second entry of a big franchise; secondly, that entry sold a lot of times more FW than its predecessor; and ultimately, they're franchises people never expected to be that big, in terms of LTD, and with possibilities to enter in the Pokémon, Monster Hunter and Animal Crossing club.
| tak13 said: SplatO_On wow... |
More than it will slow down, other retailers will be bigger than COMG! on such days.
Ryng_Tolu said:
First week of sales is gonna be hard for Splatoon 2 beat Yokay Watch 2. Yokai Watch 2 sold around 1.3 million first week. With the current trend, Switch will probabily be in the 1.7-2 million range during the Splatoon launch week. Of course Splatoon is gonna have an insane attach rate, but for beat Yokay Watch 2 it should have an attach rate of 65-75% ONLY in one week. Don't know, is possible, but would be insane if that's happen, i know many Japanese already bought Switch only for Splatoon, but some people also should wait the August holidays.
Lifetime... yes, no fucking way Splatoon 2 sells less than Yokai Watch 2. At this point, 5 million is starting to looks like a pecsimist prediction, AND before someone tell me that's not gonna happen, i was thinking 5 million lifetime with 500k first week. Now we are looking at one million sold only first week, so... |
Yeah, you're completely right! After all, the first game sold ~1.7 million, and this game has been doing well in pre-orders for a couple of weeks. Based on those two things, which of course no other franchise has ever done before, 5 million is definitely low-balling it.
And, of course, there's just so much logic in the second part I've highlighted. After all, if one random person thought 500K week one = 5 million life time, then if it gets 1 million week one, it'll definitely get like 10 million life time, right?
I expect Splatoon 2 to beat Pokemon Red/Blue numbers pretty easily tbh. Since 10 million is already a lock, and this game's legs will easily be three times as good as the first's (because of how early it is in the system's life), I'd say Splatoon 2 will most likely sell between 15-35 million in Japan alone.
I don't really see much of a reason yet to expect 1 million first week sales for Splatoon. But I'll revise my expectations after we have MK8D numbers. Splatoon should definitely beat that by a fair amount.
horuhe said:
You're fucking alive again, Ryng! We missed you.
We're on COMG! thread so, I don't think we are comparing (even though they're important) FW sales, but COMG! points trend for those games. Firstly, is because it's the second entry of a big franchise; secondly, that entry sold a lot of times more FW than its predecessor; and ultimately, they're franchises people never expected to be that big, in terms of LTD, and with possibilities to enter in the Pokémon, Monster Hunter and Animal Crossing club.
More than it will slow down, other retailers will be bigger than COMG! on such days. |
Horuhe <3 thanks for the reply expert ;) !
So because of that situation is not very right to come into conclusions for splatoon sales perfomance from the current splatoon pre-ordering perfomance on comg... What do you think?
| horuhe said: You're fucking alive again, Ryng! We missed you. |
It's sad i have not much time for stay here like one time, i'll do my best xD
| Dreamcaster said: Yeah, you're completely right! After all, the first game sold ~1.7 million, and this game has been doing well in pre-orders for a couple of weeks. Based on those two things, which of course no other franchise has ever done before, 5 million is definitely low-balling it. And, of course, there's just so much logic in the second part I've highlighted. After all, if one random person thought 500K week one = 5 million life time, then if it gets 1 million week one, it'll definitely get like 10 million life time, right? I expect Splatoon 2 to beat Pokemon Red/Blue numbers pretty easily tbh. Since 10 million is already a lock, and this game's legs will easily be three times as good as the first's (because of how early it is in the system's life), I'd say Splatoon 2 will most likely sell between 15-35 million in Japan alone. |
Did you finished yet? Good, now if you have done with the sarcasm, i hope you'll start to be serius.
The fist game has sold over 1.75 million on a platform which only sold 3.3 million. Now, i don't care what you guys think, but so far, Switch is Showing a sales potential similar to 3DS, so 20-25 million is the most realistic prediction for the Switch.
We saw how crazy were Splatoon 1 legs on Wii U, and, considering this game will launch very soon in the life of this system, amazing legs for this game too are guaranteed.
Let's look at Animal Crossing, this game sold what, 600k first week? And ended with over 5 million.
Splatoon 2 is on the road for sells over 1 million first week (if not more?), and will be launch way earlier in the system life than Animal Crossing on 3DS.
Say what you want, if you are joking for that 5 million goal, AFTER what's happen with the first Splatoon, then you guys never learn the lesson lol.
| tak13 said: Horuhe <3 thanks for the reply expert ;) ! So because of that situation is not very right to come into conclusions for splatoon sales perfomance from the current splatoon pre-ordering perfomance on comg... What do you think? |
Well, I do think (quite sure) when pre-orders open outside Niigata the behaviour of Splatoon 2, will be (if not equal) bigger than it's on COMG!. But this info we have is very baised, because COMG! is the only store in japan where the game can be pre-ordered so extrapolating that to the nationwide behaviour will be nonsense. Outside Niigata will be a lot times bigger (not only in net numbers, somenthing obvious, but in scaled comparing numbers) than it's on COMG! Quite sure!
| Ryng_Tolu said: It's sad i have not much time for stay here like one time, i'll do my best xD Did you finished yet? Good, now if you have done with the sarcasm, i hope you'll start to be serius. Say what you want, if you are joking for that 5 million goal, AFTER what's happen with the first Splatoon, then you guys never learn the lesson lol. |
...and you returned as always! #TheSplatoonCrazyPredictionUserOfGAF.
| the_dengle said: I don't really see much of a reason yet to expect 1 million first week sales for Splatoon. But I'll revise my expectations after we have MK8D numbers. Splatoon should definitely beat that by a fair amount. |
Splatoon is Competing with both version combined of Dragon Quest on COMG, and every day is closing the gap, this game isn't easy gonna sell over one million first week?
Didn't we also saw some 1.5-2 million predictions? Then here will start the argument that COMG points =/= sales, indeed i'm not saying this, but it's surely a sign.
Splatoon 2 is getting always 7/8 points per day, with some 20-30 ponits boosts, so at least 1000 points looks easy, and the first game goot a 1:987 ratio, another sign.
selling over Monster Hunter 3G is a lock, that game ended with 971 points, and we all know Monster Hunter has a bad ratio, this is not a good comparation.
Imo, 1 million as for now is the most realistic prediction. like i said, 500k was my first bet, but now after saw what Breath of the Wild did in the west (in term of attach ratio), and after was this pretty strong trend at COMG, i believe 700/800k is the minimum. Would be really the lower end.
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