The  Wii U wasn't out two years ago, so that really doesn't matter.  I do agree about your last two paragraphs.  Price drop without 3D Mario or Zelda would do nothing past the first few weeks after the cut, then sales would drop again. It is also entirely true that people buy the system to play the software.  Without software, consoles are merely expensive paper weights.

^And that's exactly why I don't have a Wii U atm.

It doesnt really make sense to do a price cut in November, retailers will already be doin there own discounts/bundles for black friday/holidays. If they do a price cut I think it will be in Aug/Sept when Pikmin, Wind Waker and possibly Wii Fit come out or wait til after the fiscal year ends, Apr/May.

What I'm saying is that a price cut on Wii U in the near term would be less painful than a cut on 3DS was in 2011; that price cut pushed Nintendo's operational business into the red, excarbating net losses caused by a strong yen. Nintendo's operations have been running at a loss, but a small net profit due to a weak yen, which also increases the value of Nintendo's cash pile and assets, means a price cut for Wii U would be less painful for Nintendo's bottom line, especially now that 3DS is building momentum in Western markets, selling at a profit, and harbouring a fast growing digital business. The problem is, any Wii U cut in the immediate term would likely impact on Nintendo's ability to reach next year's operating profit target, so Nintendo will have to wait, see how 3DS does in the West, see where the yen stabilises (if it does at all), and bring down Wii U manufacturing costs as much as they can.

The difference though, is the when 3DS was originally released, it was sold at a high margin, and Nintendo was making a profit on each unit sold.  Wii U is currently sold below cost, and Nintendo is losing money on each system sold.  You can't do a price cut on a system that is already sold below cost.   Luckily for NIntendo, at the time when they decided to do a markdown on 3DS, they could afford to do so, because the intial cost was so high.  They never would have done it if it was already sold below cost. 

If the reality ever turned out to be that Nintendo consoles only sell well if they're sold below cost, then I think that is the end of their business model. 

Can you really consider this lasting though? The 3ds never dropped this low

It's been consistently selling, terribly yes, but still selling, so yeah. :L

I can definitely see them cutting it in November, assuming that 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8 are released around that time. August/September coinciding with the launch of Wind Waker HD wouldn't make a great deal of sense because it isn't a high profile and system selling title.

Plus they'll probably stop selling them at a loss by then due to manufacturing costs being reduced after being on the market for a year.

And then they've got the added benefit of retailers cutting their own prices further during Black Friday. It's exactly the right time to cut the price imo, as long as it coincides with the releases of system selling software such as 3D Mario and Mario Kart 8.

They're not cutting the price this year. I wish everyone would stop thinking they will.

I get where ur coming from but the way I see it, there going to want to build as much momentum going into the holidays as they can. A price cut to $249.99 for basic and $279.99 for deluxe in aug to coincide with Pikmin 3 and Wii Fit U. This could make Nintendo core that have been waiting finally take the plunge and possibly lure in some casuals. Follow that up in Sept with Wind Waker and Wii Party U. Things could slow down a bit in Oct as people get ready for the holiday shopping season. Release holiday bundles, basic with NSMBU for $249.99 and deluxe with Mario Kart U for $299.99, in time for black friday. Save 3D Mario for Feb to keep post holiday momentum. Either that or hope the games alone push consoles and wait til this time next year to cut price.