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Forums - Nintendo - Put a fork in the Wii U, it is done. [Sensible discussion only, no flaming]

Mr Khan on 22 March 2013
Captain_Tom said:
Mr Khan said:
Nintendo can overcome with some properly-executed expanded-market games. NSMBU was a solid start, but it needs supplemented. The expanded market of Wii Sports/Fit may be lost to tablets, but people looking for the classic Nintendo experience (not the N64/GameCube nintendo experience) still have only one place to turn, and Nintendo has but to answer them.


Exactly so expect a survivable but sad 15-40 million.

No, you misunderstand me. The core gameplay formulas that, between them, are the reasons that any and all of us are here at all, have an enduring capacity that no competitor has yet to replicate. Sometimes Nintendo ignores them (though they seem to be getting their ducks in a row on Zelda), but hopefully Nintendo being thrown into "desperation mode" means that we'll get an even more robust response from Wii U than we did for 3DS.

Only Nintendo has the franchises and gameplay techniques that built this industry, and they can bring them back.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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JoeTheBro on 22 March 2013
Captain_Tom said:

 

-PSN and LIVE have a loyal fanbase built up that want to keep their accounts.  They will not switch to the Wii U.

People really don't care about that crap. Consumers are not loyal just because on one system they have trophies.

[Just because you own both, does not mean most do.  You are the minority]

-It is effectively the same strength as current consoles with a little extra ram.

It's fairly more powerful. The architecture is fresh so we won't see a leap but it will continue to grow and look better. Similarly to the PS3 and 360 looking better today than at launch.

-The touchpad is not enough to justify its price premium, and the PS4 will have Vita/720 will have tablets.

It's a premium over current gen, not next gen. PS4 and XBOX: GOLD will both cost more. Also tablets will not replicate the pad since they lack buttons. Vita will not replicate the pad since it lacks sales. Only advantage is off screen play.

-No compelling third party games you can't get elseware

So? Third party exclusives are no different than first party exclusives. As long as Nintendo can pump out games this is a non issue.

 

Third Parties will not support it well because:

-Since no version has enough storage there will effectively little to no DLC,and no games can be installed.  This means longer load times and its extra power is completely bottlenecked by the lack of storage.

DLC is slowly going to be ported. Only problem is it will lack exclusive DLC. Also games don't need to be installed because the disc read speed is 22.5 MB/s. The PS3 had a disc read speed of 9 MB/s.

-Large updates are not feasable.  BF3's total update space is around 7 GB before DLC.

Most Wii U owners will have an external drive plugged in.

-The Next Gen consoles will be easy to program for like PC versions of games, and the PS360 have already been completely figured out.  There is no reason to figure out another IBM CPU for an install base of a few million, when an install base of 150 Mil is sitting around.

At launch the Wii U instal base will be 7 million while the other two will be at 0. Devs will be able to make a fair amount of money supporting it, at least for the time being.

A price cut and games will not change this because:

-If it is cut to $200 when the PS4 comes out, PS360 will be $100-$200 and have a 7+ year library of great games.

PS360 won't be getting all the great new games. Also the people who buy a system near launch are not the same market as current PS360 buyers.

-The PS4 will be about 10 times stronger and far more capaple.  This is where the hardcore will go.

By that logic, hardcore will go to PC.

-Great games will sell some consoles but remember I said 15-40 million.  I doubt it will be as bad as the dreamcast.

15-40 million is still better than putting a fork in it. Honestly I expect them to pull a three pillars strategy again if sales stay low. In 3 to 4 years they could launch a HD 4K system that's way more powerful than the PS4 and come up with a better gimmick. At the same time they'd keep supporting the Wii U, just like they did with GBA and DS.

 





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Trunkin on 22 March 2013

Wow. I don't know what to say. I disagree with most of your points, but 40mil really isn't all that bad, anyway.

I guess there is the price cut issue. I do think it would help sales, and I do think that the tablet controller makes it worth the asking price. If they're able to somehow differentiate themselves enough from the PS3/360, they should be able to carve out a market for themselves. It shouldn't be too hard for them, all things considered. PS4+Vita is gonna set you back a good $600 at least, so I doubt that's gonna do much to deter anyone from going Nintendo. You could buy two Wii U's for that price!

Also, more games always makes a difference, and there will always be at least a few third parties who are willing to take a chance on a system--especially once it breaks the 10mil mark. In addition to that, new games means more marketing for those games, which will translate to more publicity/sales, and should go a ways towards fixing the misconception that the Wii U is just a Wii peripheral. Actually, even multiplats with "Wii U" at the end of their ads should help with that.



nuckles87 on 22 March 2013

It is far too early to claim any system is doomed, let alone one that is only just now recovering from a long post launch software drought. People said the same thing about the 3DS, PS3, and even the original DS, and in the end it proved false.

The console race is marathon, not a sprint. Only time will tell what will happen to Wii U. Personally, I'm waiting until at least the end of the Wii U's next holiday season before making these kinds of judgements.



Trunkin on 22 March 2013
Captain_Tom said:
brendude13 said:

Vita is doomed.

IT'S ALL DOOMED!

I am seriously concerned about the Vita too, but it seems price cuts and games are going to make a huge difference; whereas we have just learned the massive Wii U cuts have made little to no difference.

 

Having said that I see the Vita doing a similar 20 - 40 million.

Vita had all sorts of unofficial price cuts as well, but the sales didn't really pick up (in Japan) until the official price cut. I don't see why it should be any different with the Wii U.



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TruckOSaurus on 22 March 2013
Captain_Tom said:
brendude13 said:

Vita is doomed.

IT'S ALL DOOMED!

I am seriously concerned about the Vita too, but it seems price cuts and games are going to make a huge difference; whereas we have just learned the massive Wii U cuts have made little to no difference.

 

Having said that I see the Vita doing a similar 20 - 40 million.

One retailer (ShopTo) recuding the price of the basic model does not constitute a "massive Wii U cut".



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Captain_Tom on 22 March 2013
JakDaSnack said:
thekitchensink said:
You're right. Nintendo's new system is tanking horribly. It's only somewhat more powerful than Sony's previous-generation effort, has almost no good games and a 'gimmick' that supposedly adds nothing to gameplay, and is going to be demolished by an upcoming competitor with a stronger lineup that is orders of magnitude more powerful than it. This new system also has the benefit of maintaining the online accounts people have become so attached to.

Yes, the 3DS is so screwed when the Vita comes out.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA,

As for the OP, 

40 is actually pretty good.

Name one gen that Nintendo had "good" 3rd party support, that had at least 1 other decent competitor, AND they sold more than 60 million units?  Can't think of any?  That's right, CUS THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED AND HAS NEVER STOPPED NINTENDO.  Nintendo thrives off of their first party support, the casual gamer bougth the wii for wii sports, wii fit, mario kart and NSUMBW.  When they launch wii fit, wii sports, mario kart and have a decent price drop in a year or 2, I bet you anything that the casual audience will buy a lot of wiiU's.

You are trying to argue that the ps4 and 720 will take away Nintendo's loyal fanbase, keep in mind a couple things, how many sony fans abandoned Sony from last gen to current gen?  That's right, HALF OF THE SONY FANBASE LEFT SONY FOR MICROSOFT.  Why did they do this?  Because Sony abandoned all of their platform and rpg games for shooters.  Ok, that may not be true, in actuallity, because the xbox 360 was getting better 3rd party support, and because it's cheaper, and because games were ported from the 360 to the ps3 so the ps3 was getting bad ports, the fanbase left.  Will they come back?  Maybe, too early to tell, so far we have yet another shooter....a couple new IP's that don't seem to be attracting a lot of attention, and an eye that spies on you. 

Name one gen where the most powerful console won the console wars?  Can't think of any?  THATS BECAUSE IT NEVER HAPPENED!!!!  maybe if you go back to the pre Nintendo error, but whatever, the point is that the weakest console typically wins.

The cost of gaming has gone up a lot, and even if Nintendo doesn't get a lot of AAA games, they will still get a lot of games from indie developers(which they currently are getting).  Only time will tell whether or not they get AAA games, but keep in mind that the power difference of the wiiU-ps4 is much smaller than the wii-ps3, which is definitely a plus, and because of the high development costs, it would definitely be wise for companies to port their games on every platform to maximize their profits.

Anyways i'm going off here, but I'm interested in a debate, not some flame war, sorry for my caps in certain places.  And for the record my point isn't that Nintendo will get 90+ million units, or that it will win next gen, even though I made some points that it might>.>  my point is that, compared to the ps4 and 720 it will do well, so if the other two consoles sell 40-60 million units in their life time, I would suspect the wiiU will sell at least 30-50 million units.

So much fail!  Where do I start:

-First you start by basically admitting my 15-40 mil is probably right

-People left for the 360 since they had no accounts to leave behind.  Now they do.

-This gen isn't over.  The Wii will probably reach ~102m, and the PS3 WILL reach 90m and could reach 105m to just barily win this gen.  The entire time it has sold for far more than the Wii.  The fact that it will even come close basically debunks your price claim.

-PSN and LIVE have far more indy support now than Nintendo EVER will.  Also PC is the home of indy.  It feels like a new indy game comes out every other day on steam (Not exagerating) .



Mr Khan on 22 March 2013
spurgeonryan said:
This sounds like sensationalism to me Mr. Khan. Better do an across the board lock.

40 million would not be bad. It would not be stellar like last gen, but this past gen has been pretty spectacular! Hard to beat.

15 million -25 million who'd be disappointing though.

You don't get how it works. If i lock an anti-Vita thread, it stops the people from complaining of me being a biased mod, for a couple days.

If i lock this thread, there will be more calls for my ouster.

Will admit that it's an annoyingly structured thread...



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Captain_Tom on 22 March 2013
Mr Khan said:
Captain_Tom said:
Mr Khan said:
Nintendo can overcome with some properly-executed expanded-market games. NSMBU was a solid start, but it needs supplemented. The expanded market of Wii Sports/Fit may be lost to tablets, but people looking for the classic Nintendo experience (not the N64/GameCube nintendo experience) still have only one place to turn, and Nintendo has but to answer them.


Exactly so expect a survivable but sad 15-40 million.

No, you misunderstand me. The core gameplay formulas that, between them, are the reasons that any and all of us are here at all, have an enduring capacity that no competitor has yet to replicate. Sometimes Nintendo ignores them (though they seem to be getting their ducks in a row on Zelda), but hopefully Nintendo being thrown into "desperation mode" means that we'll get an even more robust response from Wii U than we did for 3DS.

Only Nintendo has the franchises and gameplay techniques that built this industry, and they can bring them back.

I would propose that SONY has done just as much to build up this industry as Nintendo.  The PS1 and PS2 basically brought gaming to adults en mass.  Without them it would be all kiddy games and odd JRPG's.  

Xbox modernized online gaming, so that was important too, but not as important as making gaming something anyone can do.



Max King of the Wild on 22 March 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Captain_Tom said:

 


15-40 million

That's not too bad for a Nintendo system.

NES: 62

SNES: 49

64: 33

GameCube: 22


I don't think it's bad for the system either but it's definatly not what people expected coming off of the Wiil... Just look at what everyone was saying aboutthe Ps3 during this generation "Lost the biggest user base yadda yadda yadda." I'd also would like to point out the gaming as grown awhole bunch since NES and SNES so getting less than those isn't a good thing either. (I think it will settle around SNES)