@Crazzy: Over 900,000 with only Japan launch, a country which has had a declining hardcore gamer market for years--the American launch will be MUCH bigger if they have enough supply.

@thekitchensink,
With 5 mln. GC LTD SBM reached 1.44 mln.
With 5 mln. Wii already, SSBB will easy reach 1.5 mln. and then DECLINE.

@crazzyman
WHAT?! I sometimes wonder if your name is actually true.
Super Mario Sunshine sold that much in its whole lifetime, of around 4-5 years. Super Mario Galaxy has sold more than half of that in 3 MONTHS, and the userbase will finish much higher. Super Smash Brothers Brawl sold a million in the first week, and you think it will sell less than 2 million units? Do you have any evidence for these claims? Are you saying that within 3 weeks, it will sell like utter crap? Nothing you say makes sense.

And to your previous post with Final Fantasy: Yeah, you're right, but Final Fantasy first week sales have declined since VIII. Yes, it will still probably beat Smash Brothers, but not by a huge margin. Can any game that's not Final Fantasy beat it, besides Pokemon? I don't remember any other series doing that.

^Dragon Quest can do that.

Now that I think about it, Dragon Quest IX first day sales will probably beat anything ever released in Japan.

You're right. I forgot about them. Still, there are very few series, and Final Fantasy XIII is probably the only one on a Sony system that can beat Brawl. It's actually possible that in Japan Brawl could become the best selling non-RPG ever. Any series not made by Square that will sell better?

@ikilledkenny, SMG reached SMS numbers so FAST, because Wii already reached 5 mln. number of GC LTD AND because ALL mariofans already bought Wii.
yeah, pokemons, yeah DQ. Still SSBB numbers are not THAT impressive compared to FFX.
Every FIRST FF game on system sells MORE, then next games.

i say there are more marioboys than finalfantasyboys.

WHY would all Mario fans buy a Wii so quickly when they weren't willing to buy a Gamecube so quickly?

Face it, it will do quite a bit better than SMS(heck, it will overtake it world-wide within the next few weeks) and is likely to do better than SM64.  There's even a slim chance it'll outsell NSMB. 

So Crazzy, you are saying that SSBB will sell 500K more in Japan, then it is over. FFXIII will sell more than 2M in its first week.

Another interesting thing, FF series have sold about 60M over games, over 54 games. http://vgchartz.com/games/index.php?page=2&name=final%20fantasy&console=&keyword=&publisher=&order=Sales&picture=

14 million sellers for FF series, and 57.5M in total sales.


Then Mario Party + Mario kart. Mario Kart has sold 40.5M over 5 games. Mario party has sold 22.11M over 9 games. That totals 62.61M over 14 games, more than 5M higher than FF.

So thereby we can see, MK and MP series combined, who are just a fraction of the Mario franchise, is beating FF in every way.

Attachment rate? Mario Party: 22M over 74M consoles. Mario Kart 40M over 110M consoles. Overall MP + MK: 62M over 110M consoles.

And FF? Have a laugh! It has been at almost all systems, and loses easily. :):):):)

T

I suppose since all the Mario fans have bought the game, no more will be sold? So if the Wii sells another 15 million units, SMG won't even sell another 100,000 units?

And SSBB numbers ARE impressive, since it's not a RPG, and also, it has doubled every single PS3 game LTD sales in Japan in one week (link), not to mention all but 7 of the PS3s games LTD total sales from all regions (link), and SSBB is only Japan numbers! And please don't say "well the Wii has a higher install base, because the PS3 has 2x the install base WW compared to Wii Japan, yet a Japan Wii game sold on par with every PS3 game WW totals.

As for the FF games, yes they do sell a lot, as your (incorrect) sig shows (go to your PS2/PS3 comparison thread to see fixed sig).  FFVII sold 2 million first week on an install base of 5 million, which is double of SSBB, but the Japanese have a love of RPGs it seems. FFX sold 1.9 million first week with an install base of 5 million. I would expect FFXIII to sell at least 1.5 million first week, but since it holds a 40% attach rate first week, I'll have to wait until we know FFXIII release date. If the PS3 is at 5 million by the time FFXIII is released, I would expect it to do the 1.5 million, if it's released sometime this year, then I'd expect it to do roughly 40% of however many PS3s there are in Japan at that time, which I'll expect to be close to 3.2 million (end of year), so I would say 1.28 million for the FFXIII, which still beats SSBB. So yes, I actually agree with you, the FF games are big. First week at least.