So you're assuming that the Wii won't outsell the Gamecube? And that SMG won't continue to track above New Super Mario Brothers, which looks to be a 15+ million seller easily?

SMG is a game that will have legs as long as the Wii itself. And if the Wii sells strong for 6 years (which I'd expect), SMG will likely show its legs that long. I assure you that SMG will sell more than 4.1 million in the US. That's just silly!

If SMG averages 100k world wide per week in 2008, that means it would sell over 5 million during 2008. And averaging 100k/week almost looks like a foregone conclusion for a game of this quality.

One of the trump cards SMG has right now is that the Wii is still selling out. Therefore, some people who want SMG literally have to wait before they can buy SMG and a Wii -- this means the attach ratio per new console sold will be higher than it otherwise would.

"@Rath, games sell 80% of it LTD sales in first 12-16 weeks."

Brain Training, Nintendogs, New Super Mario Bros, Wii Play, Wii Sports (in Japan).

You know what? Nintendo first party games seem to disagree with you

 I will admit something, Nintendo has found a way to take my money becasue i bought the DS, and so far the only good games are Mario and mario cart.  Not worth the $130 i paid for it.  And so far the only good thing i've played on the wii is wii sports, maybe mario cart and brawl will make that 3 games.

I forgot i'm not allowed to disagree with the wii fans, i may get stoned.

This post just cements my belief that Griffin is our very own version of the SDF.  He's such a perfect parody it's uncanny.

@Topic:

I bought Galaxy but didn't buy Sunshine.  I hated the F.L.U.D.D. and the camera.  I refused to buy it.  It's the only main Mario game I never owned.  I just proved Rol's point.

It won't beat Sm64 in Japan? Why? It has sold 870K, with good legs, while Sm64 had 1M in the same time... Sm64 sold 23k in its 12th week. SMG sold 16k and it is Januray. I'd say that is pretty much the same.

All we need to know is that it's tracking above New Super Mario Brothers and there's no /good/ reason to suspect it will stop.  

And if it continues tracking well above a 15+ million seller, why not come to the conclusion that it very likely could sell 15+ million itself? 

It is tracking way over NSMB in Japan? I always thought that 2.797M was more than 0.877. (source: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=Japan&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=Japan&game3=&weeks=20)

Crazzyman, you crazzy. You certainly don't have an agenda when you created this thread, right?

Nope, it doesn't look like it's tracking above NSMB in Japan. I guess that's a good, but unrelated point to the one I was making, which is that SMG is tracking above NSMB:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=New+Super+Mario+Bros+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg3=Japan&game3=&weeks=16

On a note related to your post, I don't think SMG will make 15+ million sales in japan alone, nor do I believe NSMB is approaching 15+ million sales in Japan alone. I guess when you read my entire post that makes sense.

Although if you want to compare the Wii and DS in Japan, it's worth noting that the DS reached 5 million just a little bit faster than the Wii (56 weeks vs 60 weeks, I believe).   

Very true, we also need to remember that the 64 had good start in Japan, and Mario 64 was the ONLY game for like 1 year... The fact that SMG is keeping pace with Mario 64 should bode well for it, as the Wii's userbase is growing rapidly. Also, couple that with the fact that SSBB will boost the size of the "real" gamer market in Japan, Galaxy should sell above 10k for a good while, and then find eternal legs at 5-8k. It will sell over Million in Japan before all is said and done.