I expect Sony to put out some 2D games/PSN games or sth in 4K and make sure the PS4 plays 4K videos from discs and as files/stream, but real high cost 3D games will probably be 1080p 30/60 possibly with stereoscopic 3D.

Yup in the beginning of the next gen dev costs will stay very similar to this gen. Reason being is because they will use the same engines but now they will use them to a much greater extent. For example Frostbite 2 I read somewhere that Dice only uses like 30% of Frostbite 2. Next gen maybe the better tech on consoles will allow them to use it to it's maximum capabilities. 

And who's going to be able to afford those 4k TVs?  HDTVs in households only started becoming standard halfway through this generation, and 1080p in videogames isn't even standard yet, and now you expect everone to make the jump to 4k a mere 5 years later?

Besides, you can't even tell the difference between 1080p and 4k unless you have screen 60 inches or bigger and you're sitting a few feet away from it.

people said the same shit for this gen

Just because most people can't afford 4k TV's doesn't mean it won't make it's way into gaming. People say the same thing everytime something new comes about in technology. 

Believe it or not, average tv screen sizes are getting bigger and bigger. How many of us had 1080p tvs when the PS3 came out? 4K will definetly be mainstream in 5 years time, I'm confident to say 4K tvs should be under €1000 by 2018. Tablets start to have 2540x1440 res screens, its only natural tvs make the transition to pixelwars  aswel.

Yeah, that was a little mistake.

How will Sony and MS survive?

No more used games, consoles always online, microtransactions, monthly fee for online.
Console gaming is doomed.

Yes. That is because their budgets are already next gen. 

The GamePad isn't expensive as people think. It's a standard controller with a resistive touchscreen and cheap camera. It doesn't even have it's own CPU. It realistically shouldn't cost more than $60 to make, and that's moderately high. It would probably retail for about $100 because of how badly controllers are marked up these days ($55 for a DS3??), and everyone does it. 

And 4k won't happen next gen because the tvs aren't mainstream yet. 4k is 3-4x the resolution on 1080p. Just look at the power jump it took to get to 1080p (and still after 7 years, most games aren't in true HD). 

If Sony gives us 4k, it'll be the bare minnium watered down "almost" 4k like 1080p now. If they somehow manage to give us true 4k, it'll be prohibitively expensive and will bite them in the butt in the end.