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Forums - Sales - My Estimated Sales For Some Major Games In 2013

italo244 on 05 February 2013
Aielyn said:
italo244 said:

Pokemon 11m? LULZ i really doubt!

You seriously don't think the first Pokemon of the next generation will sell over 11 million?

Here's the new-gen pokemon title sales for the first five generations:

Pokemon R/G/B: 31.37 million    - Gen 1

Pokemon G/S: 23.10 million       - Gen 2

Pokemon D/P: 18.04 million       - Gen 4

Pokemon R/S: 15.85 million       - Gen 3

Pokemon B/W: 14.59 million      - Gen 5

Note the sales of Gen 4, which made a few major changes to the franchise. Pokemon X/Y are set to make such changes, too. They're also the first Pokemon in 3D, and have garnered far more excitement based on 5 unveiled pokemon than the entirety of Gen 5 got.

Pokemon X/Y selling 11 million is only ludicrous because it's a lowball value. It'll probably hit 11 million by the end of the year. Why do I say this? Because B/W sold over 5 million in its launch year in Japan, it sold 3.5 million in the first 9 weeks in America, and it sold 1.7 million in the first 9 weeks in Europe. Just based on B/W alone, without factoring in the extra hype or the fact that it's releasing just before Christmas in America and Europe, and ignoring all of the "other" regions, you'd be expecting over 10 million by the end of the year. Factor in Christmas, and it's already over 11 million. Factor in the "other" regions, and it's probably going to hit 12 million by the end of the year. And we still haven't factored in the hype.

I said that the prediction was actually low. :*



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Aielyn on 05 February 2013
italo244 said:
I said that the prediction was actually low. :*

You did? Where? I went looking, and couldn't find it.

You're Brazilian, perhaps you didn't mean it the way it looked. You never actually said it was a low prediction, from what I can see, and your somewhat unclear comment of "Pokemon 11m? LULZ i really doubt!" would be far more likely to be interpreted to mean "that's way too high" - mostly because doubting 11 million would usually mean expecting it not to make 11 million... otherwise, you'd use the word "only", as in "only 11m?"

Or perhaps I'm wrong, and just didn't see the clarification.



italo244 on 05 February 2013
Aielyn said:
italo244 said:
I said that the prediction was actually low. :*

You did? Where? I went looking, and couldn't find it.

You're Brazilian, perhaps you didn't mean it the way it looked. You never actually said it was a low prediction, from what I can see, and your somewhat unclear comment of "Pokemon 11m? LULZ i really doubt!" would be far more likely to be interpreted to mean "that's way too high" - mostly because doubting 11 million would usually mean expecting it not to make 11 million... otherwise, you'd use the word "only", as in "only 11m?"

Or perhaps I'm wrong, and just didn't see the clarification.

Yep, actually it can be interpreted both ways, "no way it can reach 11m" and "no way, 11m too low". But given that no main pokemon games sold less than 11m, X Y is a new generation on a new handheld, some people could have been more clever. Had doubts? Ask first, don't need to write a wall text.



Aielyn on 05 February 2013
italo244 said:
Yep, actually it can be interpreted both ways, "no way it can reach 11m" and "no way, 11m too low". 

It can be interpreted both ways, but one way is the more natural interpretation - in the context of sales, "11m, I doubt it" interprets to "I doubt it will reach 11 million". This is because it would need to pass 11 million in order to achieve a higher number, and so it would be at 11 million at some point along the way.

Kind of like how, if someone were to go "You've slept with 100 girls? I doubt it", the natural interpretation wouldn't be "I think you've slept with a lot more than that", but "I doubt it's anywhere near that high".

Either way, another person asserted that they expected Pokemon X/Y to sell just 5 million. Even if the wall of text wasn't useful in response to you, it was useful as part of the response to that person. So I don't feel that it's wasted. This post, on the other hand... :P



Ucell on 05 February 2013

Guys, if you think my predictions are low, then why don't you post some of your own? Your estimates are welcome.



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Aielyn on 05 February 2013
Ucell said:
Guys, if you think my predictions are low, then why don't you post some of your own? Your estimates are welcome.

Well, I'm not going to make predictions for Sony or MS games, since I don't own those consoles, don't expect to within this year, and have a policy of not trying to judge something that I don't have at least a little experience with.

But here's a few of my own predictions...

Pokemon X/Y: 19 million (12 million by end of year, about 6 million in next year, then 1 more million for rest of lifetime)

Lego City Undercover: 3.5 million (based on exclusivity boosting sales relative to Wii Lego game sales)

Wii Fit U: 12 million (includes both upgrades from Wii Fit/Wii Fit Plus and new owners)

The Wonderful 101: 1-2 million (it's hard to predict sales of a completely new franchise, hence the range)

Wind Waker HD: 3.5 million (a little less than the original, which is typical for remakes - well above half because a lot of people didn't own a GC)

Pikmin 3: 2 million (A little more than previous entries, as many people didn't own a GC and this game has good synergy with TW101)

Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon: 4 million (another example of higher sales due to bigger install base)



NintendoPie on 05 February 2013
JustThatGamer said:
Are those estimates lifetime sales or just for sales in 2013?

Here's my estimates for 2013 sales only.

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (7m on PS3 / 7.5m on Xbox 360, 12.5m total)
2. Pokemon: X/Y (5m on 3DS)
3. God of War: Ascension (4.0m on PS3)
4. Gears of War: Judgement (3.0m on Xbox 360)
5. The Last of Us (2.5m on PS3)
6. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (0.9m on PS3 / 0.7m on Xbox 360 / 1.6m in total)
7. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.5m on PS3 / 1.0m on Xbox 360 / 1.5m in total)
8. Killzone: Mercenary (0.55m on PSV)
9. Rayman Legends (0.5m on Wii U)
10. Soul Sacrifice (???????Not a clue???????)

That would only happen if Nintendo would be stupid enough to have the smallest shipment ever...

... Hrm, Maybe you're right...



kolbykooz on 05 February 2013

A lot of these look about right, others look way off!



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Check out my Youtube gaming channel here!

saicho on 05 February 2013
Ucell said:
platformmaster918 said:
Ucell said:

 

Hi guys, I just wanted to share my estimated sales for select titles in 2013 and what I think they might sell like. I would also like your estimations on the topic:

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (12.4m on PS3, 11.5m on Xbox 360, 23.9m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (11.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.8m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.6m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.4m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (2.9m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (0.9m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 1.7m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.5m on PS3, 0.5m on Xbox 360, 0.2m on PC, 1.2m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.1m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.1m on Wii U and in total)

So what do you think about the accuracy of my estimates? Also you can post your own estimates here.

 

THAT is a bold prediction for Soul Sacrifice.  It's tough to judge Japanese hype (where handhelds sell the most), but unless we get a price drop I don't see Vita's install base being high enough for those sort of numbers this year.   Splinter Cell should sell more on 360 shouldn't it?  I thought that franchise was xbox geared didn't they get an exclusive entry or something?  Other than that I mostly agree.  I think one of these early PS exclusives will be bundled come Christmas or maybe PSallstars to boost sales for a PS4 sequel.

I think that Soul Sacrifice might sell at the level of MH games in Japan, due to heir similarity and he fact that its being developed by Keiji Inafune. Also I remember that Soul Sacrifice has had a huge response at TGS 2012. As for Splinter Cell, I think that by the time of its release the PS3 install base will surpass Xbox 360 install base. So I estimated the relative sales considering that its an Xbox-geared franchise.

Soul Sacrifice would be lucky to sell 1/10th of what MH4 will sell this year in Japan. And I'm not sure where the "huge response" for Soul Sacrifice at TGS 2012 came from. Even if it's the case, it means nothing for its sale potential in Japan. The game has been avalable for pre-order for a long time and has not generated any hype in any pre-order charts (COMG, Amazon JP) in Japan.

 

Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

Based on everyone's esponses, that's what you came up with? I didn't see any response suggesting close to either number.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Ucell on 09 February 2013
saicho said:
Ucell said:
platformmaster918 said:
Ucell said:

 

Hi guys, I just wanted to share my estimated sales for select titles in 2013 and what I think they might sell like. I would also like your estimations on the topic:

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (12.4m on PS3, 11.5m on Xbox 360, 23.9m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (11.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.8m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.6m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.4m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (2.9m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (0.9m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 1.7m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.5m on PS3, 0.5m on Xbox 360, 0.2m on PC, 1.2m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.1m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.1m on Wii U and in total)

So what do you think about the accuracy of my estimates? Also you can post your own estimates here.

 

THAT is a bold prediction for Soul Sacrifice.  It's tough to judge Japanese hype (where handhelds sell the most), but unless we get a price drop I don't see Vita's install base being high enough for those sort of numbers this year.   Splinter Cell should sell more on 360 shouldn't it?  I thought that franchise was xbox geared didn't they get an exclusive entry or something?  Other than that I mostly agree.  I think one of these early PS exclusives will be bundled come Christmas or maybe PSallstars to boost sales for a PS4 sequel.

I think that Soul Sacrifice might sell at the level of MH games in Japan, due to heir similarity and he fact that its being developed by Keiji Inafune. Also I remember that Soul Sacrifice has had a huge response at TGS 2012. As for Splinter Cell, I think that by the time of its release the PS3 install base will surpass Xbox 360 install base. So I estimated the relative sales considering that its an Xbox-geared franchise.

Soul Sacrifice would be lucky to sell 1/10th of what MH4 will sell this year in Japan. And I'm not sure where the "huge response" for Soul Sacrifice at TGS 2012 came from. Even if it's the case, it means nothing for its sale potential in Japan. The game has been avalable for pre-order for a long time and has not generated any hype in any pre-order charts (COMG, Amazon JP) in Japan.

 

Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

Based on everyone's esponses, that's what you came up with? I didn't see any response suggesting close to either number.


I still have brains to estimate myself.