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Ucell on 09 February 2013
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saicho said:
Ucell said:
platformmaster918 said:
Ucell said:

 

Hi guys, I just wanted to share my estimated sales for select titles in 2013 and what I think they might sell like. I would also like your estimations on the topic:

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (12.4m on PS3, 11.5m on Xbox 360, 23.9m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (11.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.8m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.6m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.4m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (2.9m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (0.9m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 1.7m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.5m on PS3, 0.5m on Xbox 360, 0.2m on PC, 1.2m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.1m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.1m on Wii U and in total)

So what do you think about the accuracy of my estimates? Also you can post your own estimates here.

 

THAT is a bold prediction for Soul Sacrifice.  It's tough to judge Japanese hype (where handhelds sell the most), but unless we get a price drop I don't see Vita's install base being high enough for those sort of numbers this year.   Splinter Cell should sell more on 360 shouldn't it?  I thought that franchise was xbox geared didn't they get an exclusive entry or something?  Other than that I mostly agree.  I think one of these early PS exclusives will be bundled come Christmas or maybe PSallstars to boost sales for a PS4 sequel.

I think that Soul Sacrifice might sell at the level of MH games in Japan, due to heir similarity and he fact that its being developed by Keiji Inafune. Also I remember that Soul Sacrifice has had a huge response at TGS 2012. As for Splinter Cell, I think that by the time of its release the PS3 install base will surpass Xbox 360 install base. So I estimated the relative sales considering that its an Xbox-geared franchise.

Soul Sacrifice would be lucky to sell 1/10th of what MH4 will sell this year in Japan. And I'm not sure where the "huge response" for Soul Sacrifice at TGS 2012 came from. Even if it's the case, it means nothing for its sale potential in Japan. The game has been avalable for pre-order for a long time and has not generated any hype in any pre-order charts (COMG, Amazon JP) in Japan.

 

Ucell said:

I'm revising my estimates, based on your responses:

 

1. Grand Theft Auto 5 (10.3m on PS3, 10.1m on Xbox 360, 20.4m total)

2. Pokemon: X/Y (5.6m on 3DS and in total)

3. God Of War: Ascension (4.7m on PS3 and in total)

4. The Last Of Us (3.5m on PS3 and in total)

5. Soul Sacrifice (3.2m on PSV and in total)

6. Gears Of War: Judgement (3.2m on Xbox 360 and in total)

7. Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (1.1m on PS3, 1.0m on Xbox 360, 2.1m in total)

8. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist (0.7m on PS3, 0.8m on Xbox 360, 0.4m on PC, 1.9m in total)

9. Killzone: Mercenary (1.2m on PSV and in total)

10. Rayman Legends (1.0m on Wii U and in total)

Based on everyone's esponses, that's what you came up with? I didn't see any response suggesting close to either number.


I still have brains to estimate myself.