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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo Investors Thread

DieAppleDie on 08 January 2013

i guess its time to buy?



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TheLastStarFighter on 08 January 2013

It's a great time to buy. Yeah the key for upward movement is really that 3rd quarter report and if they are returning to profitability. Sooo... close...



coolguy on 08 January 2013

I wish i could have reggies job...



VITA 32 GIG CARD.250 GIG SLIM & 160 GIG PHAT PS3

TheLastStarFighter on 08 January 2013

You mean cause it would be fun, because it pays alot or because you could do a better job of promoting WiiU?



chriscox1121 on 08 January 2013

yeah, if i could buy all over again i would. 12.39 a share is crazy! When are the dividend payouts? and what qualifies you to receive them? or is it as simple as having them when they do the payouts?




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Vinniegambini on 08 January 2013
chriscox1121 said:
yeah, if i could buy all over again i would. 12.39 a share is crazy! When are the dividend payouts? and what qualifies you to receive them? or is it as simple as having them when they do the payouts?


same here -_- ex dividend date is March 31st. Payment is in June if that helps :)



chriscox1121 on 08 January 2013
Vinniegambini said:
chriscox1121 said:
yeah, if i could buy all over again i would. 12.39 a share is crazy! When are the dividend payouts? and what qualifies you to receive them? or is it as simple as having them when they do the payouts?


same here -_- ex dividend date is March 31st. Payment is in June if that helps :)


it does, thanks so much




Augen on 08 January 2013

When was the last time Nintendo paid out a dividend? How much was it?



OceanJ on 08 January 2013

In preparation for the Q3 & Annual Reports here's a consolidation of the good & bad for Nintendo - on the numbers:

  Projection April 1 2012 - March 2013 As of December 29th My Estimate
Wii U Hardware 5.5 Million 2.45 Million 4.75 Million (Miss by 750K)
Wii U Software 24 Million 5 Million 15 Million (Miss by 9 Million)
3DS Hardware 17.5 Million 10.97 Million 15 Million (Miss by 2.5 Milion)
3DS Software 70 Million 32.48 Million 55 Million (Miss by 15 Million)
Wii Hardware 5 Million 3.57 Million 5.2 Million (Exceed by 200k)
Wii Software 50.5 Million 57.78 Million 80 Million (Exceed by 29.5 Million)
DS Hardware 2.5 Million 2.8 Million 3.8 Million (Exceed by 1.3 Million)
DS Software 37 Million 35.5 Million

43 Million (Exceed by 6 Million)

 

Inferences:
  • The cheaper Wii and DS systems are exceeding expectations and cannibalizing to an extent, 3DS & Wii U sales, due to price-points and a weak global economy.
  • Wii & DS Software sales balance out Wii U & 3DS software misses
  • Overall Hardware Unit Sales will miss projections
Also of Note:
  • Nintendo projected a Yen of 80/$1 US, and 100/ 1 Euro.  Actual figures closer to 85 & 110, translating to higher profits.
  • 3DS sales are down in 2012 year-over-year in the U.S. by 600,000 units, even though it had 3 more months on sale vs. 2011.  Disconcerting.
  • 3DS sales similarly are down in Europe by 3,000 units YoY - though it had 3 more months on sale vs 2011. Bad.
  • Wii U is selling poorly in Europe.  The price is too high, economy is hurting, marketing is lacking.
  • Given the inevitable misses on 3DS & Wii U hardware & software, despite better than expected sales for Wii & DS, Net Sales projection of 800 Billion Yen will be missed.  Nintendo posted 200B Net Sales as of Sept 30.  They've never posted a 4x multiple of Net Sales as of March 31.
  • 3DS sales globally are up YoY by 500k units, thanks only to massive numbers in Japan.  But Japan cannot keep carrying the load for decline in US & Europe.
  • 3DS hardware has been selling for a profit since September. With the majority of sales over the holidays, a big win for Nintendo translating to big profits.
  • It was reported that the Wii U in fact is not profitable after 1 game sale.  We don't know how much money Nintendo is losing per console, and if it will be profitable in Q3.
What can we conclude from this?
A) Nintendo should post a profitable Q3 overall.  It's nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where this doesn't happen, given the weakening Yen, the offset of expenses from respectable (though off-pace) Wii U sales,  strong Wii, DS, & 3DS sales
B) There is a reasoned chance given the poor showing of Wii U & 3DS per Nintendo's own projections, that Nintendo will not post an Annual Profit for FY2012, and instead post the 2nd back-to-back annual loss, the first time in company history that would happen
C) There is also a reasoned chance Nintendo will turn in an Annual profit and meet the 6 Billion profit projections, given the weakening Yen and better than expected Wii & DS sales.
For Nintendo's Shares, I expect them to decline further from today's 52 week low, and bottom out close to $11 / share.  But once Nintendo posts Q3 profits they should see a bump with everything else remaining the same.  The biggest ongoing risk for Nintendo are weekly Wii U sales numbers.  If they do not hold steady investors may choose to abandon the stock regardless.


OceanJ on 09 January 2013
Augen said:
When was the last time Nintendo paid out a dividend? How much was it?


Previous Dividends and Forecast

 Dividend per share
(in yen)		Annual
dividends
in total
(in mil yen)		Consolidated
payout ratio
(%)		Consolidated
dividends on
net assets
(%)		Adopted standard for annual dividends in total
[Dividend Policy]
Interim
(End of
2nd
quarter)		Year-endAnnual
The 66th
Fiscal
Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2006)		 70
(*1)		 320 390 49,886 51.2 5.3 50% consolidated payout ratio
The 67th
Fiscal
Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2007)		 70
(*1)		 620 690 88,253 50.6 8.5 50% consolidated payout ratio
The 68th
Fiscal Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2008)		 140
(*1)		 1,120 1,260 161,141 62.6 13.8 33% of consolidated operating income
The 69th
Fiscal Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2009)		 660 780 1,440 184,154 66.0 14.8 33% of consolidated operating income
The 70th
Fiscal Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2010)		 270 660 930 118,930 52.0 9.2 33% of consolidated operating income
The 71st
Fiscal Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2011)		 140 310
 450
 57,545 74.1
 4.4 33% of consolidated operating income
The 72nd
Fiscal Year
(Year ended
Mar. 2012)		 0 100
(*2)		 100
(*2)		 12,787 - 1.0 -
The 73rd
Fiscal Year
(Year ending
Mar. 2013)		 0 100
(*3)		 100
(*3)		 - 213.1
(*3)		 - -
(*3)

(*1) For those fiscal years, interim dividends per share were not performance based.

(*2) No year-end dividends are supposed to be distributed based on the following dividend policy. However, as the minimum dividend was set for the 72nd fiscal year during the term, 100 yen per share was distributed.

(*3) Forecasts are based on the following dividend policy and the financial forecasts contained in the earnings release dated October 24, 2012. The minimum annual dividends per share are set to be 100 yen for the 73rd fiscal year.