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Forums - Sony Discussion - Will Killzone Mercenary for the PS VITA be a flop?

 

Will Killzone Mercenary be a flop?

Yes, it will be very bad. 73 39.67%
 
No, the game will be awesome! 111 60.33%
 
Total:184
Jaywood2010 on 07 January 2013
Jay520 said:
JayWood2010 said:

Yes i do.  This was dubbed as Vita's savior.  It has done nothing for the vita. it is currently a 410k and this is during the holiday season.  That is not good at all.  Someone brought up the attach ratio, but that attach ratio will have a huge decline as time goes on which was ignored in previous posts.  Call of Duty games sell above 20 million copies and this game is pegged to be a big title for the vita but cant even manage 1 million during the holiday season is an embarrassment to the company themselves.  The only good thing going for this game is 410k is more than what it deserved.  It sold strictly off of Call of Duty's brand name alone.

It would be impossible for this game to sell 1 million units during the holiday considering the Vita hasn't even sold 4 million units. That's over a 25% attach ratio!

Also, the game stopped being dubbed as the Vita's savior/big title once people realized who the developer was and that they developed the game in 5 months. The hope for this game dropped weeks before release.

The attach ratio is probably going to hover in 7-10% range until next year which is great for any game.


410k for a new title in the holiday season .  No it should of managed at least 700k.  Liberation outsold this game by 200k which released in a similar time frame.  That is what successful looks like on the vita.  now 400k and a 33 metacritic.  Like i said, it's attatch ratio will drop hard if the vita ever takes off.  If it continues to put up mediocre sells then sure it will hover aroun 7-10% but if the vita ever takes off then you are looking at a much lower number. 




       

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Jaywood2010 on 07 January 2013
Godchild1020 said:
JayWood2010 said:
Mmmfishtacos said:

Call of duty is reaching half a million sold. 15 percent attach rate is hardly a flop. Critically sure.

Anyway, Killzone should do pretty well.


The savior of the vita and a game that usually sells more than 20 million copies, yes 500k is a huge flop

I think that is a unfair comparison on your part. You are comparing a game that should 20 million on the PS3, 360, PC and Wii U to a game that is selling on one console. Not only is that comparison off because of that, but what you really should be doing is comparing Declassified to the first COD to reach the PS3, 360, PSP and Wii.

I'm not saying it's not a flop, but I think it just above the flop level and could reach the sales of the Call of Duty games or could come near a million sold.

Call of Duty: Roads to Victory - PSP 471,149 - First Year 2,057,844 - Lifetime Sales - - After 6 Years
Call of Duty 3 - PS3
 134,090  1,378,046 - After 7 Years
 Call of Duty 3 - WII
 262,414  2,18X,XXX - After 7 Years
 Call of Duty 2 - X360
  265,734  1,818,144 - After 8 Years
 Call of Duty Declassified  414,137  414,137 - After 1 Year

 

 

 

 

 

I think the Vita version is on track to sell well. As much as I hate to say it, because I don't want Sony nor Activision to put out a like this again.


Bring up the metacritic of each one of those games.  You are going to notice those games sold well partially because they were good games and people talked about them.  This is not the case with declassified.




       

Jay520 on 07 January 2013
JayWood2010 said:


410k for a new title in the holiday season .  No it should of managed at least 700k.  Liberation outsold this game by 200k which released in a similar time frame.  That is what successful looks like on the vita.  now 400k and a 33 metacritic.  Like i said, it's attatch ratio will drop hard if the vita ever takes off.  If it continues to put up mediocre sells then sure it will hover aroun 7-10% but if the vita ever takes off then you are looking at a much lower number. 


CoD first six weeks: 414,137

Liberation's first six weeks: 480,549

Cod only sold 65k less than Liberation. 

As for attach ratio, you have to remember this is a title that launched in beginning of the Vita's life. Of course it's attach ratio is going to drop as the hardware sells more. That happens with nearly every launch title. 

And as Godchild pointed out, this game is selling similar to the PSP's CoD which went on to sell 2m.



Godchild1020 on 07 January 2013
JayWood2010 said:

Bring up the metacritic of each one of those games.  You are going to notice those games sold well partially because they were good games and people talked about them.  This is not the case with declassified.

I also want to mention the DS versions of COD, each one released around the same time frame as Declassified.

True, but by that logic, Call of duty 4: Modern Warfare should have sold the best on all platforms and not MW3 or BO1/2. Also Roads to Victory has a 64 MC score and sold better than the PS3 version of COD 3. You might say the install base is higher, then I would say, I was always told metacritic doesn't equal how well a game would sell. Either way, I still stick by what I first said, your comparison was unfair and off.



Jaywood2010 on 07 January 2013
Godchild1020 said:
JayWood2010 said:

Bring up the metacritic of each one of those games.  You are going to notice those games sold well partially because they were good games and people talked about them.  This is not the case with declassified.

I also want to mention the DS versions of COD, each one released around the same time frame as Declassified.

True, but by that logic, Call of duty 4: Modern Warfare should have sold the best on all platforms and not MW3 or BO1/2. Also Roads to Victory has a 64 MC score and sold better than the PS3 version of COD 3. You might say the install base is higher, then I would say, I was always told metacritic doesn't equal how well a game would sell. Either way, I still stick by what I first said, your comparison was unfair and off.

Call of duty is the biggest name in the industry now.  This is not even the same as comparing it to cod3.  Cod 3 was before it got insanely popular..  And Roads of Vitory wasnt a good game but it was still much better than declassified.  

We will revisiti this discussion in a year or so as this conversation is quickly going no where.




       

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Jaywood2010 on 07 January 2013
Jay520 said:
JayWood2010 said:


410k for a new title in the holiday season .  No it should of managed at least 700k.  Liberation outsold this game by 200k which released in a similar time frame.  That is what successful looks like on the vita.  now 400k and a 33 metacritic.  Like i said, it's attatch ratio will drop hard if the vita ever takes off.  If it continues to put up mediocre sells then sure it will hover aroun 7-10% but if the vita ever takes off then you are looking at a much lower number. 


CoD first six weeks: 414,137

Liberation's first six weeks: 480,549

Cod only sold 65k less than Liberation. 

As for attach ratio, you have to remember this is a title that launched in beginning of the Vita's life. Of course it's attach ratio is going to drop as the hardware sells more. That happens with nearly every launch title. 

And as Godchild pointed out, this game is selling similar to the PSP's CoD which went on to sell 2m.


Holiday season.

Anyways like i told godchild we will revisit this discussion next year as this conversation is going no where.




       

Godchild1020 on 07 January 2013
JayWood2010 said:
Jay520 said:
JayWood2010 said:


410k for a new title in the holiday season .  No it should of managed at least 700k.  Liberation outsold this game by 200k which released in a similar time frame.  That is what successful looks like on the vita.  now 400k and a 33 metacritic.  Like i said, it's attatch ratio will drop hard if the vita ever takes off.  If it continues to put up mediocre sells then sure it will hover aroun 7-10% but if the vita ever takes off then you are looking at a much lower number. 


CoD first six weeks: 414,137

Liberation's first six weeks: 480,549

Cod only sold 65k less than Liberation. 

As for attach ratio, you have to remember this is a title that launched in beginning of the Vita's life. Of course it's attach ratio is going to drop as the hardware sells more. That happens with nearly every launch title. 

And as Godchild pointed out, this game is selling similar to the PSP's CoD which went on to sell 2m.


Holiday season.

Anyways like i told godchild we will revisit this discussion next year as this conversation is going no where.


Holiday season or not, The game is selling decently. Roads to Victory was released in March and sold 60k less than a game that only had 2 months on the market. Holiday season or not, I think that is better than expected, no matter the popularity. Yes, it is a flop when you consider the MC score, but it's on par with the install base of the Vita.

I agree, we should revisit this a year or so from now.



NintendoPie on 07 January 2013

It will be the worst selling Killzone, that's for sure. If that's a flop though I don't know.



Corey on 07 January 2013

It might have some good legs if it can establish itself as the best fps experience on the vita, it will be moderately successful with the size of the install base and I think it will be able to go up to 1m lifetime sales.



SnakeDrake on 07 January 2013

Cant wait for this game. The game looks set im hoping for a Q2-3 release, but the game might sell better during the holidays.



 

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