Not pessimistic at all.

Look at Socom Confrontation/(4), MAG, Modnation Racers, Motorstorm Pacific Rift or other (not necessarily exclusive) games with similar or even better launches/first holidays that barely made it over 1 million.
They needed much more time to get to that point than just 13 1/2 months.

Also SW sales will continue to decline this year, surely even more when the new consoles arrive and then hit a new low in 2014. Don't expect the legs to be as good as the games I meantioned earlier.


Since you didn't specify if only the PS3 version or both versions reach 1m in 12 months, everything I just said is only applicable to the PS3 version.

It will make it to 1million, how long it will take who knows :/

Socom and MAG are shooters and had no chance in competing with Call of Duty so its not surprising those didn't perform well...
Motormstorm is like the 3rd/4th sequel to a franchise that has been on decline for years. Actually the racing genre as a whole has been in decline this gen...

But there is nothing like All-Stars on PS3 and it has an advantage since it will probably get great DLC support unlike all those other games you mentioned. I still think it'll reach 1m by this time next year ,but we'll have to observe its legs in the coming weeks to get a better picture on how it'll sell lifetime.

2 million maybe?

Being heavily bundled of course.