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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Official 2013 Console sales prediction thread- It's Nearly Over!

HikenNoAce on 18 May 2013

PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.



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Conegamer on 18 May 2013
HikenNoAce said:
PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.

Not really. It's more than possible PS3 sales are overtracked now looking at NPD figures, so if we assume it's at 3.2mil, it would hit around 6mil come the end of October/early November if sales continue at this rate (most unlikely, they'll continue to fall over the summer), then selling 500k a week when your successor has just launched it highly unlikely. 

As I said, possible but unlikely in my eyes.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 18 May 2013
kowenicki said:
Conegamer said:
HikenNoAce said:
PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.

Not really. It's more than possible PS3 sales are overtracked now looking at NPD figures, so if we assume it's at 3.2mil, it would hit around 6mil come the end of October/early November if sales continue at this rate (most unlikely, they'll continue to fall over the summer), then selling 500k a week when your successor has just launched it highly unlikely. 

As I said, possible but unlikely in my eyes.


I sticking with my 8m and 6.5m (i think thats what it was)

Close enough:

kowenicki 8.00 6.40 2.50 9.00 14.50 3.50 1.50 1.50 / /

Both systems would have to be done around 35% YoY for that to happen. Which is possible I guess, depends on how much of an impact next gen has on this one towards the end of the year.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 18 May 2013
kowenicki said:
Conegamer said:
kowenicki said:
Conegamer said:
HikenNoAce said:
PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.

Not really. It's more than possible PS3 sales are overtracked now looking at NPD figures, so if we assume it's at 3.2mil, it would hit around 6mil come the end of October/early November if sales continue at this rate (most unlikely, they'll continue to fall over the summer), then selling 500k a week when your successor has just launched it highly unlikely. 

As I said, possible but unlikely in my eyes.


I sticking with my 8m and 6.5m (i think thats what it was)

Close enough:

kowenicki 8.00 6.40 2.50 9.00 14.50 3.50 1.50 1.50 / /

Both systems would have to be done around 35% YoY for that to happen. Which is possible I guess, depends on how much of an impact next gen has on this one towards the end of the year.

well the impact in the US and UK will be quite large I think and they are the biggest holiday hot spots. 

Definitely. Also interesting to note how high everyone was with predicting Wii U sales. Goes to show really.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

HikenNoAce on 18 May 2013
Conegamer said:
HikenNoAce said:
PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.

Not really. It's more than possible PS3 sales are overtracked now looking at NPD figures, so if we assume it's at 3.2mil, it would hit around 6mil come the end of October/early November if sales continue at this rate (most unlikely, they'll continue to fall over the summer), then selling 500k a week when your successor has just launched it highly unlikely. 

As I said, possible but unlikely in my eyes.

NPD doesn't mean anything when we're talking about worldwide numbers. PS3 + PS2 sold 16.5M during FY2012 and yet VGChartz has it at 75M? Seems like 2M+ are missing from the total.

Edit: I didn't realise that they fixed the numbers. Still about 500,000 to 1M lower than current PS3 sales.



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HikenNoAce on 18 May 2013

One more thing - people need to stop assuming that the release of the PS4 will heavily impact the PS3 sales. What will impact PS3 sales more than anything is the current price point which has been around for 2 years now. In about 4 years (since 2009), the PS3's price has dropped by $20. It is reaching saturation point at that particular price range.



HikenNoAce on 18 May 2013
pezus said:
Conegamer said:
pezus said:

Looking at this again is interesting.

Here's how the 2012 totals look now:

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 14,406,901 (+9%) 27,656,963
PS3 12,734,949 (-13%) 73,830,282
X360 11,097,669 (-20%) 74,867,113
Wii 5,246,228 (-54%) 98,674,459
PSP 4,328,993 (-42%) 77,504,985
PSV 3,705,007 (+669%) 4,186,580
DS 3,012,615 (-66%) 152,996,125
WiiU 2,247,216 (-66%) 2,247,216
Total56,779,578(-19%) 

Before: 

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 13,993,602 (+6%) 27,243,664
PS3 11,277,199 (-20%) 71,784,934
X360 9,806,002 (-29%) 73,575,446
Wii 4,911,170 (-58%) 98,574,693
PSV 3,454,534 (+617%) 3,936,107
DS 3,434,070 (-61%) 153,743,293
PSP 2,915,105 (-60%) 75,774,585
WiiU 2,245,161 / 2,245,161
Total52,036,843(-25%) 

 

With this in mind, I think my PS3 prediction will end up too low, 360 probably too, Wii is slightly too high, WiiU is way too high (!), 3DS too high (damn all of yous making me adjust!), Vita is too high, PSP way too low. Oh and I believe PS4 will sell more than 1.4m if it launches WW (but that prediction was really without Europe).

User PS3 360 Wii Wii U 3DS Vita DS PSP PS4 720 Total
Pezus 9.3 7 2.5 9 16.5 5.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 56.5

Yeah, interesting to note the differences in sales increases really. Everyone really overpredicted Wii U and arguably Vita, maybe 3DS as well. 

I think PS3 will end up around 9mil when all is said and done. But it could be higher, depending on a price cut. More than 10mil seems unlikely though.

Around 10m is all but guaranteed with GT6 combined with a price cut in NA. Sony themselves predicted 10m for the fiscal year, so the real year should be a bit higher because the fiscal year includes months where PS3 should suffer bigger drops than this year.


Don't forget that they exceeded their forecast for FY2012 so exceeding 10M for FY2013 isn't out of question. I also think that they are purposedly forecasting lower numbers since the Vita forecast debacle.



Conegamer on 18 May 2013
pezus said:
kowenicki said:
Conegamer said:
HikenNoAce said:
PS3 already sold 3.4M according to VGChartz, which has a history of undertracking PS3 sales. I think 10M is an easy feat to achieve.

Not really. It's more than possible PS3 sales are overtracked now looking at NPD figures, so if we assume it's at 3.2mil, it would hit around 6mil come the end of October/early November if sales continue at this rate (most unlikely, they'll continue to fall over the summer), then selling 500k a week when your successor has just launched it highly unlikely. 

As I said, possible but unlikely in my eyes.


I sticking with my 8m and 6.5m (i think thats what it was)

Not going to happen. Quote me

Bu...bu...there's two of them, so which do I quote?

I'm so confused!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 18 May 2013

The Excel I use is just the free starter edition which came with my laptop, which is Word Starter, Excel Starter and Powerpoint Viewer...gets the job done I guess.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 19 July 2013

Looking at this point, I think we've done quite well if we take the averages (aside from Wii U, and PSP). Taking the average of PS4 figures is about 1.6mil, and the Xbone is around 1.4mil. I think these should be pretty close to the actual figures, perhaps slightly under for the PS4.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.