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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Official 2013 Console sales prediction thread- It's Nearly Over!

daveJ on 27 January 2013
Farsala said: I am assuming everyone predicted that a pricecut and GTA5 and other software support would keep it from getting that bad.

Yes thats what Im betting on, pricecuts for PS360 and the PS3 has especially a stronger software lineup in 2013 than 2012.

My wiiU 5.9 million prediction is looking good, maybe a little high.



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ said: True the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

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Conegamer on 27 January 2013
AstroGamer said:

PS3: 10m
360: 7.5m
Wii U: 8.5-9.5m (depending on the other next gen consoles release and Windwaker HD release)
PS4: 1.8m
720: 2m
3DS: 16m
Vita: 3m
DS: 3m
PSP 1.9m
Wii:2.5m

Edit: I missed the update in the OP. Whatever, I'll just keep this here as my own record of what I predicted

I'll be sure to record the numbers, but sadly it won't affect the OP :/



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

DanneSandin on 28 January 2013
Conegamer said:

So the OP is now updated with averages. In addition, the table is now in alphabetical order. 

 

 

Notes:

 

  • There are 76 participants, of whom 15 predicted the PS3 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • This compares to only 2 users who predicted the 360 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • However, 32 users predicted the WiiU to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • Only 4 users believe the Wii will sell over 4 million units this year.
  • The highest 3DS prediction is 28 million units; the same as its current LTD. 
  • 4 users predict the 3DS to sell more than 20 million units this year, with no users predicting below 10 million for the year.
  • Contrast this to the highest prediction of the Vita, which is below 9.5 million (the next highest is 8.5 million below this). So, Vita's absolute best-case is the 3DS' absolute worst-case.
  • 26 people predicted PS4 sales for the year, compared to 46 for the 720. So more people believe the 720 will arrive this year than the PS4.
  • The difference between the highest and the lowest Wii U prediction is 10.6 million, more than the highest 360 prediction
  • On average, people predicted the 3DS to outsell the Vita by 3:1. However, the most extreme example is 14:1.
  • The lowest complete set of data with all console totals added together comes to less than the Wii+DS in 2007, 2009, and is 10 million lower than in 2008.
  • Indeed, the average total sales for each person is less than 1 million above the Wii+DS in 2008.
Averages (with YoY predictions):

PS3- 9.40 (-18%)

360- 7.67 (-22%)

Wii- 2.64 (-46%)

Wii U- 9.30 (+413%)

3DS-15.66 (+12%)

PSV-5.60 (+62%)

DS-1.93 (-44%)

PSP-1.43 (-51%)

 

Total-55.92 (+7%)

 

Haha funny facts!!

I think the numbers for PS360 is too high... They will fall a lot more than people think; something I neglected to update in my predictions ^^

and btw, I can't see the 720 numbers in the OP =/



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

Conegamer on 28 January 2013
DanneSandin said:
Conegamer said:

So the OP is now updated with averages. In addition, the table is now in alphabetical order. 

 

 

Notes:

 

  • There are 76 participants, of whom 15 predicted the PS3 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • This compares to only 2 users who predicted the 360 to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • However, 32 users predicted the WiiU to sell over or including 10 million this year.
  • Only 4 users believe the Wii will sell over 4 million units this year.
  • The highest 3DS prediction is 28 million units; the same as its current LTD. 
  • 4 users predict the 3DS to sell more than 20 million units this year, with no users predicting below 10 million for the year.
  • Contrast this to the highest prediction of the Vita, which is below 9.5 million (the next highest is 8.5 million below this). So, Vita's absolute best-case is the 3DS' absolute worst-case.
  • 26 people predicted PS4 sales for the year, compared to 46 for the 720. So more people believe the 720 will arrive this year than the PS4.
  • The difference between the highest and the lowest Wii U prediction is 10.6 million, more than the highest 360 prediction
  • On average, people predicted the 3DS to outsell the Vita by 3:1. However, the most extreme example is 14:1.
  • The lowest complete set of data with all console totals added together comes to less than the Wii+DS in 2007, 2009, and is 10 million lower than in 2008.
  • Indeed, the average total sales for each person is less than 1 million above the Wii+DS in 2008.
Averages (with YoY predictions):

PS3- 9.40 (-18%)

360- 7.67 (-22%)

Wii- 2.64 (-46%)

Wii U- 9.30 (+413%)

3DS-15.66 (+12%)

PSV-5.60 (+62%)

DS-1.93 (-44%)

PSP-1.43 (-51%)

 

Total-55.92 (+7%)

 

Haha funny facts!!

I think the numbers for PS360 is too high... They will fall a lot more than people think; something I neglected to update in my predictions ^^

and btw, I can't see the 720 numbers in the OP =/

Yeah I feel as though people were perhaps being a tad too generous with the PS360 predictions; if not overall. Looking at the predicted YoY changes over the current ones...it'll take a hefty price cut in order for the systems to come close to the average.

Don't know about the 720 numbers, will try and edit the OP to see if that gets it to work.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

NintendoPie on 16 February 2013

NinPie's adjustments:

3DS ~ 18 Million
Wii U ~ 6 Million (This is not a guess...)

Edit: These are my personal predictions, then. I'm going with which ever is closest at the end of the year.



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Conegamer on 16 February 2013

You can't just rock up in here and make adjustments after the deadline, this isn't how these things work!

Though it looks like everyone will be wildly off of Wii U and PSV at least....



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

NintendoPie on 16 February 2013
Conegamer said:
You can't just rock up in here and make adjustments after the deadline, this isn't how these things work!

Though it looks like everyone will be wildly off of Wii U and PSV at least....

The average for the Wii U really is quite high. I don't know how some of us came up with those numbers. -.-



Conegamer on 16 February 2013
NintendoPie said:
Conegamer said:
You can't just rock up in here and make adjustments after the deadline, this isn't how these things work!

Though it looks like everyone will be wildly off of Wii U and PSV at least....

The average for the Wii U really is quite high. I don't know how some of us came up with those numbers. -.-

Clearly our imaginations ran wild, or we were all stuck in holiday fever.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 18 May 2013
pezus said:

Looking at this again is interesting.

Here's how the 2012 totals look now:

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 14,406,901 (+9%) 27,656,963
PS3 12,734,949 (-13%) 73,830,282
X360 11,097,669 (-20%) 74,867,113
Wii 5,246,228 (-54%) 98,674,459
PSP 4,328,993 (-42%) 77,504,985
PSV 3,705,007 (+669%) 4,186,580
DS 3,012,615 (-66%) 152,996,125
WiiU 2,247,216 (-66%) 2,247,216
Total56,779,578(-19%) 

Before: 

PlatformYearly (change)Total
3DS 13,993,602 (+6%) 27,243,664
PS3 11,277,199 (-20%) 71,784,934
X360 9,806,002 (-29%) 73,575,446
Wii 4,911,170 (-58%) 98,574,693
PSV 3,454,534 (+617%) 3,936,107
DS 3,434,070 (-61%) 153,743,293
PSP 2,915,105 (-60%) 75,774,585
WiiU 2,245,161 / 2,245,161
Total52,036,843(-25%) 

 

With this in mind, I think my PS3 prediction will end up too low, 360 probably too, Wii is slightly too high, WiiU is way too high (!), 3DS too high (damn all of yous making me adjust!), Vita is too high, PSP way too low. Oh and I believe PS4 will sell more than 1.4m if it launches WW (but that prediction was really without Europe).

User PS3 360 Wii Wii U 3DS Vita DS PSP PS4 720 Total
Pezus 9.3 7 2.5 9 16.5 5.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 56.5

Yeah, interesting to note the differences in sales increases really. Everyone really overpredicted Wii U and arguably Vita, maybe 3DS as well. 

I think PS3 will end up around 9mil when all is said and done. But it could be higher, depending on a price cut. More than 10mil seems unlikely though.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer on 18 May 2013
spurgeonryan said:
Nice looking OP!

I do try

A shame that the final column is cut off though unless you view the post. Damn excel!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.