There are different levels of success, and different ways of measuring them... I wouldn't exactly call 40 mil as a flat number a "success," but I wouldn't call it a failure, either. It's just kinda... meh. I would call it a success if it retains the same market share vs the 3DS as the PSP held against the DS -- something like 33%. So if the 3DS sells 80 million lifetime, the Vita has to sell at least 40 million lifetime to be a market success in my opinion. If the 3DS sells 120 million, Vita has to sell 60 million, and so on.

To be a financial success, it basically just has to be profitable for Sony, but that's even harder to predict at this early stage.

If it hits 30M in the next 4 years it would of made a healthy profit overall... that's a total guess though. Depends on what happens next year. The manufacturing costs will definitely be significantly lower, but will the price cut take it to "breaking even or small less" territory again? If they have some powerful software for late next year they don't need to sell it at a loss.

I'd say not in sales but in market share. %35.

It could sell 10 million and still be a huge success.

That's because Sony makes money on software, not hardware. As long as they can continue to release big budget exclusives that turn a profit the Vita is succeeding.

Well you really need about 75% of your predeccesor to be not called a failure I'd say...so about 50mil?

So we ignore the hundreds of millions spent on R&D, the advertising campaign, and the market and even though the Vita likely won't have made any real money back for Sony we'd still call it a "huge success"? I think not.

JoeTheBro said:
It could sell 10 million and still be a huge success.



That's because Sony makes money on software, not hardware. As long as they can continue to release big budget exclusives that turn a profit the Vita is succeeding.

This is true but as it is PS3 is making the money this way not Vita unfortunately. Vita software should reach over 9million this week and close to the 4mil mark in hardware. But dont forget the bundling of AC liberation and some for COD and Madden bundles wont really count as software making money so i say made a profit of 8mil software. Thing is thats a 2game per system ratio. But at least they make money off of ps+ right!?

Conegamer said:



JoeTheBro said:
It could sell 10 million and still be a huge success.

That's because Sony makes money on software, not hardware. As long as they can continue to release big budget exclusives that turn a profit the Vita is succeeding.



So we ignore the hundreds of millions spent on R&D, the advertising campaign, and the market and even though the Vita likely won't have made any real money back for Sony we'd still call it a "huge success"? I think not.

I forgot about the advertisement. That will eat up their profits. Like PSASBR their marketing it but the sales aren't impressive.

After it sells more than the Dreamcast and the Vita team throw a party in celebration.

Panama said:
After it sells more than the Dreamcast and the Vita team throw a party in celebration.

Whats crazy is it might not happen next year!!!
estimated 4.2 mil this year +4.0mil next year doesn't beat dreamcast!