In rumors all people speak like the dates for launch are already set in stone for the MS and Sony next home consoles.
I on the other hand, feel like the Wii U still might have a saying in terms of what the others might do, launch time wise.
E3 is the place to announce this things and it is in early June, 6 months and a few days from today.
I believe MS and Sony can still evaluate this 6 months of sales to make a better decision about a more beneficial launch window.
The reception of Wii U its still very "green" and its hard to see if the hype will translate into actual sales.
What do you guys think will be the lower Wii U sales number (by end of May) that makes them ("call" each other and) definitively push to a later date and having more time to create a better machine; and what is the "enough" Wii U sales number (also by end of May) that will make them "jump the gun" (that is a over statement, since, IMO, Nintendo were the ones that really "jump the gun") and bring the next home console early, to fight Wii U in the 2013 holidays?

My guess for low is 2.5M... if sells that or lower MS/Sony might delay the announcement (not in 2013 E3), and push the launch to 2014.
Enough is 6M... that number will put lots of pressure in MS/Sony to release in 2013.

in between... MS/Sony will carry away with normal business and launch at their own pace with little regard to what Wii U sale numbers are...

whats your guess for end of May Wii U sale number?

I would say that Wii U sales numbers won't actually have much of anything to do with the launch of the nextbox or ps4. As it is, I believe both Microsoft and Sony will release their next systems in late 2013 regardless of what Wii U's sales are. Both of their systems have started to hit their decline, so they need to release a new system in 2013 anyway.

If both companies intend to launch their system by the end of 2013 there is no turning back without loosing money. Games are already being made and both companies have spend too much money to just "delay" the new consoles. So imo it doesn't matter if the Wii U sales are good or not, Sony and MS won't push there consoles launch (unless something major happens).

But to answer your question I believe the lowest the Wii U will do is 4m. Nintendo forecast 5.5m units by March and I believe they can achieve that goal. After that is pretty hard to say without knowing which games will be release.

chances are that next box and PS4 will be sold at a loss... PS3 and Xb360 sell at profit right now... if Wii U flop hard, they might milk this gen a little bit more... lots of AAA, quality wise and dev cost wise, games still to come in HD twins that will need legs to be profitable... so even 3rd party devs want to squize a little bit more the HD twins...

I honestly doubt it will do anything.

but it still won't magically decrease initial production costs.

Because they still need to setup the facorites and chances are they already got initial contracts in place for components they need. So those prices are locked in anyway.

That just means they would continue to sell the old systems when the new systems hit the market.  Prolonging the gen to stay profitable one more year doesn't mean they still aren't going to have to face a loss when the new system hits the next year.  No, that doesn't make any sense at all.  

Like I said, no matter what the Wii U does Microsoft and Sony will release next year.   Especially since all the profitable part of the video game industry like software and accessory sales are so closely tied to system sales.  If 360 and ps3 sells continue to dry up, which they will, Microsoft and Sony will be faced with smaller revenues, less profit, and less brand power.  

really? Xbox 360 took a full year to do that in much better economic times and nintendo wants to do that in 4 months? Bold forecast...

Hopefully early, cant stand this gen as it is.

nah. By now, each one allready has a concrete schedule.