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Forums - General - Sony / Ninty Yen boost. Markets finally catch up with me ;-)

Wlakiz on 01 February 2013
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
I think you should recommend people to sell some stocks before Jan 31st (Sony's quarterly update). Yen didn't depreciate until January which means any benefit from the weaker yen would not be reflected in their Q4 earning report. Not to mention they are still restructuring so it is likely they will still report large losses.


it went from 100 to 115 in Q4, and has gone from 115 to 123 since january 1st.


it went 100 to 115 near the end of Q4..

sony gains something like 6B yen per point....what's yours?

6 billion per point is only true if yen is held there throughout the quarter.. having the yen spike to 115 near the end the quarter means they get little to no benefit of the yen depreciation.



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Kasz216 on 01 February 2013
Mr Khan said:
ninetailschris said:
Mr Khan said:
chocoloco said:

I am worried of a delay on the US working out the fiscal cliff quickly because Beohner (pronounced boner) is still the leader of a largely Republican dominated US House. Though the Democrats have gained ground in the Senate and and retained the White House, the political picture remains the same as it was two years ago. The House has little reason other than the good of the country to cooperate with the President Obama. The last go at this only resulted in a long standing stalemate that pissed off the entire country. My outlook is that the dollar would more likely fall if it is not resolved soon than it is to gain immediately.

As far as the Republicans are concerned, the key sticking point is the Norquist Pledge, which a lot of major Republicans and almost all Tea Partiers have signed, declaring that they will never agree to raise government revenues by one cent (that is NO tax rate raises forever, but also NO closures of loopholes or deductions, ever) This makes them fundamentally unable to govern, because even the most hardened fiscal conservative who hasn't signed that lunatic's pledge will now that revenue increases are sometimes necessary.

The point of hope here is that several senate republicans have been seen backing off from the Norquist pledge in the past couple weeks.

I'm independent voter. But lately I notice you seem kinda bias towards republicans and believe democrats are here to save the world when there just as bad.

You just noticed that?

I'm a social democrat, who occasionally has Marxist-Leninist outbursts calling for various fire and brimstone against the idle classes.

But i think we can agree, objectively, that the Norquist Pledge has been bad for the United States of America.

In other times yes...

Currently?

People like to call the Democrats Keynsians... but JMK would of slapped you silly if you claimed we should be raising taxes on anybody now.

Closing the deficit by raising taxes in a very weak economy is an action unsupported by any major economic theory.

It's essentially ignoring all economic research.

 

Politcians be for Spending cuts, or for no spending cuts and no tax increases.... depending on if you take a long term (Hayek) or short term (Keynes) view at economics.

Being for tax increases is illogical from an economics perspective.

You can make a social justice arguement... but make a social justice arguement.... since the entirity of economic science is against such a position.   Keynes, Hayek, Friedman... pretty much EVERY notable historical economist would suggest raising taxes now is a bad idea that will hurt the economy short term and actually decrease revenue.



Kasz216 on 01 February 2013

As for how long the yen differential lasts... it really depends on just how cowed the BoJ is.

While Abe is taking a short term look at the situation, the BoJ is looking at a larger longterm issue which is their aging population, compounded by the fact that their aging population tend to work even past their "mandatory" retirement age.

Meaning less and less money will be able to finance their debts... which could spiral and REALLY lower the Yen's value.



theprof00 on 01 February 2013
Wlakiz said:
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
I think you should recommend people to sell some stocks before Jan 31st (Sony's quarterly update). Yen didn't depreciate until January which means any benefit from the weaker yen would not be reflected in their Q4 earning report. Not to mention they are still restructuring so it is likely they will still report large losses.


it went from 100 to 115 in Q4, and has gone from 115 to 123 since january 1st.


it went 100 to 115 near the end of Q4..

sony gains something like 6B yen per point....what's yours?

6 billion per point is only true if yen is held there throughout the quarter.. having the yen spike to 115 near the end the quarter means they get little to no benefit of the yen depreciation.

during q4, when 75% of the sales happen in the last three weeks.



Train wreck on 01 February 2013

Panasonic and Sharp both announced operating income for the most recent quarter due to the yen gains (even late in the quarter), I except the same for Sony.



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Wlakiz on 01 February 2013
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
I think you should recommend people to sell some stocks before Jan 31st (Sony's quarterly update). Yen didn't depreciate until January which means any benefit from the weaker yen would not be reflected in their Q4 earning report. Not to mention they are still restructuring so it is likely they will still report large losses.


it went from 100 to 115 in Q4, and has gone from 115 to 123 since january 1st.


it went 100 to 115 near the end of Q4..

sony gains something like 6B yen per point....what's yours?

6 billion per point is only true if yen is held there throughout the quarter.. having the yen spike to 115 near the end the quarter means they get little to no benefit of the yen depreciation.

during q4, when 75% of the sales happen in the last three weeks.

Where did you get that info? according to the charts, in USA, November sold just as much as December for the Ps3 console. Yen didn't depericate pass 86 against the dollar till december 31st. 

You should remove japan sells from the count because yen inflation would not affect them. 



Train wreck on 01 February 2013

Where did you get that info? according to the charts, in USA, November sold just as much as December for the Ps3 console. Yen didn't depericate pass 86 against the dollar till december 31st. 

You should remove japan sells from the count because yen inflation would not affect them. 

according to what charts?  Sony sells tv, computes, cell phones, movies and music.  All these things are sold during the holidays more than the rest of the year



Wlakiz on 01 February 2013
Train wreck said:

Where did you get that info? according to the charts, in USA, November sold just as much as December for the Ps3 console. Yen didn't depericate pass 86 against the dollar till december 31st. 

You should remove japan sells from the count because yen inflation would not affect them. 

according to what charts?  Sony sells tv, computes, cell phones, movies and music.  All these things are sold during the holidays more than the rest of the year


according to vgcharts' hardware year-on-year charts. Yeah, things get sold more during holidays.. but i have yet to see the "q4, when 75% of the sales happen in the last three weeks."



theprof00 on 02 February 2013
Wlakiz said:
Train wreck said:

Where did you get that info? according to the charts, in USA, November sold just as much as December for the Ps3 console. Yen didn't depericate pass 86 against the dollar till december 31st. 

You should remove japan sells from the count because yen inflation would not affect them. 

according to what charts?  Sony sells tv, computes, cell phones, movies and music.  All these things are sold during the holidays more than the rest of the year


according to vgcharts' hardware year-on-year charts. Yeah, things get sold more during holidays.. but i have yet to see the "q4, when 75% of the sales happen in the last three weeks."

I was just making a point. The last weeks of the year are huge for sony, but according to you the increase shouldn't affect anything....except you just admitted that december is more than a third.

 

oct
    Diff Revenues Total system Rev Forex modified rev
PS#3 66.9 66.9
psv 2.739 2.739
psp 75.12 75.12
nov
           
ps3 68.1 68.1 1.2 300000000
psv 2.9 2.9 0.161 40250000 360650000 373272750
psp 75.29 75.29 0.17 20400000
dec
           
ps3 70.19 69.7 1.6 400000000
psv 3.5 3.4 0.5 125000000 538200000 565110000
psp 75.47 75.4 0.11 13200000
jan
           
ps3 72.1 72.1 2.4 600000000
psv 4 4 0.6 150000000 807600000
928740000
psp 75.88 75.88 0.48 57600000
september avg 100
oct 1 103.5 103.5
nov 105 105
dec 115 115

No, not 75%, just 50%.

Additional revenue from market change:
Oct: 13m
Nov: 27m
Dec: 121m



Wlakiz on 02 February 2013
theprof00 said:
Wlakiz said:
Train wreck said:

Where did you get that info? according to the charts, in USA, November sold just as much as December for the Ps3 console. Yen didn't depericate pass 86 against the dollar till december 31st. 

You should remove japan sells from the count because yen inflation would not affect them. 

according to what charts?  Sony sells tv, computes, cell phones, movies and music.  All these things are sold during the holidays more than the rest of the year


according to vgcharts' hardware year-on-year charts. Yeah, things get sold more during holidays.. but i have yet to see the "q4, when 75% of the sales happen in the last three weeks."

I was just making a point. The last weeks of the year are huge for sony, but according to you the increase shouldn't affect anything....except you just admitted that december is more than a third.

 

oct          
    Diff Revenues Total system Rev Forex modified rev
PS#3 66.9 66.9        
psv 2.739 2.739        
psp 75.12 75.12        
           
nov          
           
ps3 68.1 68.1 1.2 300000000    
psv 2.9 2.9 0.161 40250000 360650000 373272750
psp 75.29 75.29 0.17 20400000    
           
dec          
           
ps3 70.19 69.7 1.6 400000000    
psv 3.5 3.4 0.5 125000000 538200000 565110000
psp 75.47 75.4 0.11 13200000    
           
jan          
           
ps3 72.1 72.1 2.4 600000000    
psv 4 4 0.6 150000000 807600000
928740000
psp 75.88 75.88 0.48 57600000    
           
september avg 100        
oct 1 103.5 103.5        
nov 105 105        
dec 115 115        

No, not 75%, just 50%.

Additional revenue from market change:
Oct: 13m
Nov: 27m
Dec: 121m

I said the yen deperciation would not have much affect on Sony's performance in Q4. Sony's revenue comes from shipping consoles to distrubutors. Most of the shipment transcations would have happened in november in preperation for the xmas holiday - hence it would be using November's exchange rate over december's aka before the big spike?