you never know what kind of games are being prepared to be launched there, also the lack of consoles in china has driven them towards PC gaming, there might be a potential market for consoles after all. and if they manage to hack the thing it might sell like hot cakes. 

Its not necessarily about sales right now but setting the console up for the future. There may not be a lot of people who will want to buy consoles and console games at the moment but that will come eventually as China's economy keeps growing and gaming becomes more popular. Similar to cars and iphones, people will want the best of any tech and if sony market it right and keep the price reasonable then you may see good sales. And the same is true for the other BRIC countries. We already know that the ps2 is the most popular console in India and there are indian game developers making WW games now and in Brazil we have both MS and Sony opening game factories.

The PS3 has been readily available in China by import since it's release in all but the very smallest cities. Importing is much more common there relative to Australia, for example, simply because official releases for so many products are significantly delayed. I had numerous students (rich kids) who had PS3s and PSPs within days of their US releases and I lived way, way 'off the map' in central China. There was plenty of awareness among my students of all the consoles but ownership was still very, very low. With this in mind i don't know if availability or accessibility to the product has ever been a big issue.

Price on the other hand is a different story. The city that I lived in was pretty much exactly on the nationwide average in terms of earnings , $700-$800 per month. So even accounting for rapidly expanding wealth you are talking about 1/3-1/2 of an average monthly salary to purchase a PS3 i.e. out of the reach of the average person in China by a significant margin. It's not like the PS3 has finally hit the sweet spot for Chinese buyers, it is still much a purchase for the wealthy.

Imagine dropping the equivalent of several thousand dollars on a 'kids toy' in a population where there is such a huge focus on school studies for all teens and very little time afforded for leisure in the group who would otherwise be most likely, playing games.

On top of that you are competing against the HUGE PC gaming which can be paid for on an hourly basis at the cost of about 30 cents to a dollar per hour (depending on where you live) in the ubiquitous WangBa (internet cafes)

My take: Sony will certainly garner some sales due increased product awareness via official advertising etc. but many of those who want and can afford a PS3 have already gotten them as they've been readily available since release.

million

Billion. With a "B".

Additional PS3s will be sold, but Sony had better not sell them at a loss, as theyll be copied en masse now

This could be just what sony needs to overtake that 1 year advantage Xbox got over them.

In my opinion, Sony doesn't need China to overtake the Xbox anyways, but China will help the PS3 overtake the Xbox more quickly, I'll give you that.

You touched on a very key point regarding the huge focus on studies and self improvement. Although this contrast the fact that China has more online gamers than anyone else I do believe the mentality is different.

I have met Chinese business clients you seriously believe "xbox Britain and America" is a bad thing for the future of both countries.  Chinese students are pushed so hard to succeed in academics and sports that the last thing many want is for their kids to spend a few wasted hours on console gaming. This I think is the biggest challenge.

As for the rest of it I very much doubt that personal economics will be a problem for the PS3 in a country that buy and import more cars and luxury goods than any other. That doesn't make sense.

What is forgotten is Hong kong has been a major gateway for Western products , legit and counterfeit into mainland china for most of it's history ,so many would have them already , still this gives them access and they get at least a small slice of the console market and hopefully grow it in future using the perceived advantages of buying legit to take a cut from the grey market , also and this is a long way off but the more western products sold straight up might help with future negotiations with the Government , about patents etc especially if it can in the long term create benefits in the form of tax revenue ,increased retail employment and the like to show that opening up can be more beneficial to the Government , than allowing the black/grey markets to dominate.