whats the european one that happens in august, GDC?

Sony's got too many AAA PS3 titles coming next year to make it a necessary year for PS4 to launch. I still say fall 2014 for PS4. 2013 for Xbox 3 for sure, though. There's nothing on the first-party release calendar after Gears Judgement.

GamesCon...or GC for short.  Usually held in Cologne, Germany

They better.

I don't see how releasing a bunch of AAA exclusives early next year stops Sony from releasing a new console in Fall.  They have just as many first party studios who haven't announced anything in awhile and they said there were games in development for it at last year's E3.  Also some first parties like Media Molecule and ND have 2 teams and 1 has an announced project.  I'm expecting a CES hint with E3 giving the full details.

I say the next xbox has a 99% chance at being announced sometime next year, while the PS4 has a 60% chance.

I didn't say they wouldn't announce at E3 or sometime next year, I just said they wouldn't release next year.  I stand by that.  They'll release in 2014.

I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft goes the Apple route and announces something outside of E3 for the 720. A special event a month or 2 before E3 like they did with their tablet. Then they use E3 to show off the new games and go more in depth about the 720.

I agree about Sony. They have The Last of Us, Beyond Two Souls, and God of War next year. God of War drops in March. So unless Sony continues to drop exclusives on top of each other I don't see how they could release those 2 games and then a few months later have a new console come out.

IMO I see this hapenning. I see The Last of Us coming out sometime in May or maybe June. I then see Sony releasing Beyond Two Souls around the holiday season to try and get people to buy that game to take game sales away from the 720.

Sony would be sending those games to die if they have them come out a few months before their new console drops.

I think ps4 will come spring 2014 at the latest. I know they lost a lot of money on ps3 but they can't drag it on forever. They will fall behind again if they do.