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Forums - Sales Discussion - Complete Sales Comparisons, Part 2

Stever89 on 19 January 2008
darthdevidem01 said:
well...

Ps3 will just about beat GC's TOTAL sales in other within 1 year..

an impressive feat considering "people" here say it's doing worse than the GC

 Point them to this thread the next time someone says that...

That's why I posted this stuff... one stop shop for anything numbers. 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 19 January 2008
Played_Out said:

Ah yes. Very impressive too. Saw a much bigger % increase than any console last gen. Interesting stuff.

As for my wii-wager, I don't expect the Wii to experience the same trajectory as the PS2. It will peak much earlier IMO. Should be close though.


 Doubtful, very doubtful, as the Wii still has a tone of unsatisfied Demand at this price point, no Wii will likely experience a much larger rise WW than the PS2 did, and with Wii fit leading the charge in Japan, I expect a large rise even there



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Stever89 on 19 January 2008

If anyone would like a copy of this (which includes graphs), download it here



Played_Out on 20 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Played_Out said:

Ah yes. Very impressive too. Saw a much bigger % increase than any console last gen. Interesting stuff.

As for my wii-wager, I don't expect the Wii to experience the same trajectory as the PS2. It will peak much earlier IMO. Should be close though.


Doubtful, very doubtful, as the Wii still has a tone of unsatisfied Demand at this price point, no Wii will likely experience a much larger rise WW than the PS2 did, and with Wii fit leading the charge in Japan, I expect a large rise even there

 

To clarify: I do believe the Wii will experience more growth than the PS2 in it's 2nd year (>39%) due to the supply contraints it suffered in year 1, but I expect the Wii's sales to decline year 3, which was the peak year for the PS2 (it saw another 15% growth on Y2).

On the other hand, I expect Wii to experience lower growth rates than the PS360. 360 sales grew 54% in it's second year. To match that, the PS3 would have to sell 11.47m and the Wii would have to sell 22.87m. I think the PS3 has a better chance of achieving that than the Wii.



Stever89 on 20 January 2008

I am working on a year by year increase for the consoles, course, it won't be much good until we can have a second year for the PS3/Wii to compare everything to. I'll probably do another analysis after this year (2008). Once we can compare second years for each consoles, the comparisons will be much more interesting.



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darthdevidem01 on 20 January 2008

@stever

brilliant analysis though....



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Avinash_Tyagi on 20 January 2008
Played_Out said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Played_Out said:

Ah yes. Very impressive too. Saw a much bigger % increase than any console last gen. Interesting stuff.

As for my wii-wager, I don't expect the Wii to experience the same trajectory as the PS2. It will peak much earlier IMO. Should be close though.


Doubtful, very doubtful, as the Wii still has a tone of unsatisfied Demand at this price point, no Wii will likely experience a much larger rise WW than the PS2 did, and with Wii fit leading the charge in Japan, I expect a large rise even there

 

To clarify: I do believe the Wii will experience more growth than the PS2 in it's 2nd year (>39%) due to the supply contraints it suffered in year 1, but I expect the Wii's sales to decline year 3, which was the peak year for the PS2 (it saw another 15% growth on Y2).

On the other hand, I expect Wii to experience lower growth rates than the PS360. 360 sales grew 54% in it's second year. To match that, the PS3 would have to sell 11.47m and the Wii would have to sell 22.87m. I think the PS3 has a better chance of achieving that than the Wii.


 I think the Wii will an easy time of passing 23 million WW this year



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)