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Forums - Politics Discussion - Debunking the "weaker currency = more exports" myth in 2 seconds...

SamuelRSmith said:

I don't even need any words for this one, just graphs.

 


Name 1 fiat currency that still has its original purchasing power...you can't



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Mr Khan said:

You're vastly oversimplifying, you know.

And Tonestarr is right (which is why i'm not going to moderate him), not that you "don't" understand economics, but you know you understand economics better than this. Pretty much everyone's got inflation to some degree or other, and any currency that has existed as long as the US dollar is going to have lost more or less as much value. Especially egregious because you're comparing the dollar across FOUR major international currency exchange schemes (gold standard, interwar currency wars, Bretton Woods, and the current Floating regime) and confusing inflation for depreciation which, while related, are not one in the same at all. Aside from the fact that running across such a large period of time entails significant changes in global systems

You can do better than this.


Oh yeah, the point of the OP as to generate a response. I'm sure if I had a lengthy OP, people would just open it, and not bother reading it, and nobody hears the Austrian arguments to these things. I create the thread with something simple, get controversy, and then open up to debate. I may get my arse handed to me, but that's a risk I take, in just trying to debunk some of the myths (note: even I do get my arse handed to me, doesn't mean I'm wrong... just means that I'm not as versed in that area as the opponent).

Moderate Tonestarr? Did somebody report him, then?



Train wreck said:

Name 1 fiat currency that still has its original purchasing power...you can't

Did I claim that I could?



I can demonstrate why it doesn't work ...

If the USA devalued their dollar by 40% they would increase the cost of foreign goods and services, and all commodities by 66%. Gasoline prices (for example) would increase from $4 per Gallon to $6 to $7 per gallon, food bills will skyrocket, and most people will be forced to cut back or demand higher salaries. If people cut back all the currency devaluation did was lower the standard of living of the people in your country (essentially cutting their wages), and if people get a salary increase to maintain their standard of living their goods and services cost as much as they did prior to the currency devaluation.

In general, people who earn more have more negotiating power and will likely be able to get increased salaries while people who earn less will not be able to. The net result of this is that most currency devaluation results in less equal distribution of income. The funny thing is that most people who are against inequal distribution of income are for currency devaluation.



SamuelRSmith said:
Train wreck said:

Name 1 fiat currency that still has its original purchasing power...you can't

Did I claim that I could?

Well what are you trying to prove with the charts then?   Is the US dollar not following in the footsteps of every other major fiat currency that has ever existed?  Rome, Britian, Persia, China, Neopolan's Europe, Wiermer republic Germany, Hilter's Europe, Russian Ruble, I mean all of these currencies had higher purchasing power then fell as time, inflation, wars, famine etc etc eroaded that currency.



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SamuelRSmith said:
thetonestarr said:

Your graphs (1) aren't aligned, (2) ignore a plethora of more important information, and (3) suck for using on this topic.

You do not understand economics. Don't talk about it.

 

When people talk about "weaker currency" in regards to exporting, it has absolutely zero relevancy to what you just posted. Zero. None. Nada. Nunco. Not a single bit. It has to do with said currency's comparison to other nations' currency. What you posted was in regards to inflation; in international trade economics, it has to do with exchange rate (which IS affected by inflation, but it has to do with inflation for BOTH countries, of which we have absolutely zero information in this thread, which therefore makes this thread entirely null and void. It also has to do with the economic strength of the nations in general, which is a lot more complicated).

Here's the problem with your argument: if you were to go above-and-beyond the debasing of other countries, and thus force your currency to lower relative to other countries, all you're doing is increasing prices at home, even more so than those abroad. People in France may be able to buy more US dollars, but they won't be able to buy as many things WITH those dollars.

Of course, there is a time delay between the initial printing and the actual price increases, but that time delay is dependant on how quickly the newly-printed bills enter circulation. So, if exports increase rapidly (or, imports fall, and people buy more domestic goods), and this creates the economic activity wanted, all that happens is prices increase faster, and the sugar-high from the cheap money hits its lull much sooner.

Now don't get me wrong. I am not tying the the debasement to increasing trade deficits, I'm just saying that it doesn't stand to decrease trade deficits. Increasing trade deficits have a lot to do with other areas of policy - taxation, regulation, deficit spending - which turns producers into consumers.

Somebody did report him, yes.

Anyway, now it sounds like you're confusing arbitrage, export competitiveness, and inflation vs depreciation. The issue is once you have sufficiently depreciated and your exports are *so* super-competitive that they're the only thing anyone's buying, that will bite back into currency appreciation and leave you forced to inflate again if you want to depreciate, but levels of competitiveness are sustainable over time if you manage to hold constant vis-a-vis the currency you want to maintain competitiveness with, which assumes relative stability in all markets, and so long as it doesn't lead to overwhelming demand for your currency abroad.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Train wreck said:
SamuelRSmith said:
Train wreck said:

Name 1 fiat currency that still has its original purchasing power...you can't

Did I claim that I could?

Well what are you trying to prove with the charts then?   Is the US dollar not following in the footsteps of every other major fiat currency that has ever existed?  Rome, Britian, Persia, China, Neopolan's Europe, Wiermer republic Germany, Hilter's Europe, Russian Ruble, I mean all of these currencies had higher purchasing power then fell as time, inflation, wars, famine etc etc eroaded that currency.


I'm trying to prove the claim that debasing your currency improves exports is false.

 

In some senses, Mr. Khan is right that in that debasing and inflation are not one and the same. Well, they are, but he's referring to price increases (which is a symptom of inflation) not being synonymous with debasement. Which is true, after all, it's about the money demand/supply, vis-a-vis demand/supply for goods within the economy. The fact that the US dollar is worth 2% of what it was in 1913 is even more astounding, when you consider the sheer increase in the number of goods available.



HappySqurriel said:

I can demonstrate why it doesn't work ...

If the USA devalued their dollar by 40% they would increase the cost of foreign goods and services, and all commodities by 66%. Gasoline prices (for example) would increase from $4 per Gallon to $6 to $7 per gallon, food bills will skyrocket, and most people will be forced to cut back or demand higher salaries. If people cut back all the currency devaluation did was lower the standard of living of the people in your country (essentially cutting their wages), and if people get a salary increase to maintain their standard of living their goods and services cost as much as they did prior to the currency devaluation.

In general, people who earn more have more negotiating power and will likely be able to get increased salaries while people who earn less will not be able to. The net result of this is that most currency devaluation results in less equal distribution of income. The funny thing is that most people who are against inequal distribution of income are for currency devaluation.

Not really. Devaluation is hated largely by anti-free-trade groups, the problem being that such groups are mostly perceived as fringe nuts nowadays. But you can look at the hardships faced in countries like Argentina that had to devalue for trade purposes and know that the left is no friend of devaluation for trade purposes, just of, paradoxically, economic stimulus. Though i personally tend to disbelieve in pure monetary stimulus, but rather that stimulus should be used for future investment



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:

Somebody did report him, yes.

Anyway, now it sounds like you're confusing arbitrage, export competitiveness, and inflation vs depreciation. The issue is once you have sufficiently depreciated and your exports are *so* super-competitive that they're the only thing anyone's buying, that will bite back into currency appreciation and leave you forced to inflate again if you want to depreciate, but levels of competitiveness are sustainable over time if you manage to hold constant vis-a-vis the currency you want to maintain competitiveness with, which assumes relative stability in all markets, and so long as it doesn't lead to overwhelming demand for your currency abroad.

How do you manage that?



germany has high exports and it profits if the euro isn't so strong. as example chinese like german machines, if our euro would be 3x as strong as the australian dollar, they would maybe buy machines in australia instead.

now this doesn't automatically mean we will export more with a weaker euro, if other countries don't need a lot at that time they won't buy something from us even if the euro is weak but is is much cheaper for them to buy it in germany if the euro is weak.

i can give you an own example of me, i bought a lot of games in uk in the past, but only if the difference between pound and euo was so big to justify it for me. sometimes the price difference wasn't enough to me but when it was, i bought it in uk and increased uk's exports. i also bought a monitor in uk because of that once.