Gamerace said:

 Nintendo understood that dual analog controller was what was keeping the general public from games. So they removed that limitation with the Wiimote. Now they have put it back in the gamepad. WTF?? Worse they added a touch screen. You might think that's a good idea, it's casual friendly, but it's a terrible idea because to a casual non-gamer, it now looks like a tablet controller. Tablets are cool! Except it's not a tablet. There's no apps. No free games. It's single touch. It can't go anywhere (outside the house). Can't do anything except play games and watch tv. So in comparison to a true tablet device the WiiU looks like a bad value. It's a value equation Nintendo can't win so they should never have put themselves into that equation. They should have made a better Wii.

Wow, THIS is IRONIC.

Back in late '06 or early '07 a poster named John Lucas predicted Wii would sell 20m in 2007 and win the generation - easily. At that time everyone on this site thought he was A) crazy, B) a joke or C) the ultimate deluted Nintendo fan. I and one other member were the only people who agreed and I explained in detail why. But people then couldn't see past their own little world of core gaming. The idea of soccer moms and elderly folks buying a Wii was beyond their imagination. I got it. I predicted Wii would succeed when vertually no one else did.

Now today, I am the lone voice saying Man-Bear-Pig is RIGHT.

Anyone who's seen my posts knows I've been calling the WiiU the anti-thesis of the Wii. What Wii did right the WiiU is doing WRONG.

Nintendo understood that dual analog controller was what was keeping the general public from games. So they removed that limitation with the Wiimote. Now they have put it back in the gamepad. WTF?? Worse they added a touch screen. You might think that's a good idea, it's casual friendly, but it's a terrible idea because to a casual non-gamer, it now looks like a tablet controller. Tablets are cool! Except it's not a tablet. There's no apps. No free games. It's single touch. It can't go anywhere (outside the house). Can't do anything except play games and watch tv. So in comparison to a true tablet device the WiiU looks like a bad value. It's a value equation Nintendo can't win so they should never have put themselves into that equation. They should have made a better Wii.

Casuals love their Apples and Android devices and instead of offering an completely difference experience to pull them away from those devices, WiiU offers a comparible one. MISTAKE. Apple will kick their ass without lifting a finger to do so. Worse, multiple Android devices will be on the market this year with (removable) game controls which will compete directly with WiiU for that audience. They will have infinitely MORE games (not better...), FREE games, and be cheaper and do a whole lot more than play games. At it's current rate of power increase, ipads will be MORE powerful than WiiU in a year or two. WiiU looks like a poor value in comparison to the casual observer.

But... you say... WiiU will appeal to core. F--- that. Not going to happen. Japan maybe thanks to Dragon Quest X & Monster Hunter but home consoles are not big in Japan. Portables are. In western markets core will stick to their current gen systems - which plays all the same core games - HELLO! (Yeah, yeah, Bayonetta 2 - big whoop)

Besides, Gamecube had lots of core titles. Even had RE exclusive for a while. Had all the big Nintendo titles. 20m. It didn't work then, it won't work now either. The gamepad adds TOO LITTLE to draw anyone away from their current system/friends list.

Will it get ports when PS4/720 come out? People here think so, I'm not so sure. We have no idea what those systems will be capable of. Graphically, it may not look much different, but processing difference will be IMMENSE. Think Dead Rising: Chop 'til you Drop all over again. WiiU's ports will be vastly inferior. That's obvious.

So WiiU has little appeal to core. Little appeal to casual. That leaves Nintendo fans. They number around 10m-20m tops. Look at any core Nintendo title without casual appeal - 3D Mario, Zelda, Smash Bros, Metroid, Star Fox, F-Zero, Pikmin, Kirby (and most of those have some limited casual appeal) - none exceed 11m for a single game in sales - ever.

For casuals Wii is a distant memory. Apple is the story today (and even it is starting to get stale). WiiU won't change that. Having 'Wii' in the name won't help sales, much if any as Wii is yesterdays news. WiiU should have come out in 2010. It would have been huge then. It's 2012, almost 2013. WiiU is too little, too late in a market that's forever shifted by the Apple effect. It's a compromise system, some Frankenstein cross of Wii, Apple and 360, no one asked for and few will see value in.

IF, and that's still a big IF, MS can pull off what the rumours claim, they WILL capture the casual audience. Because they will offer that Apple/Android/WiiU/PS4 can't. A wholy new experience that everyone will want to experience for themselves. Nintendo had the market for a while but they lost it, unable to keep producing truly fresh experiences. I am highly skeptical MS will do as well as Nintendo did at appleasing the casual market, but the potential is there. Regardless of tech, 720 will be priced affordably - day one - with their 2-3 year contract plans. People are used to 3 year monthly contracts. They'll accept it here. MS will also keep their core base, and if Sony releases another stupidly expensive system while 720 is at $99 (with 3 year contract) MS will steal a lot of Sony's too (again).

I won't call WiiU a flop. But it doesn't have the imaginative fire Wii did (or 720 might). It will be much more like the Gamecube than the Wii but will benefit from an expanded market and residual afterglow of Wii. In that respect to say it will double Gamecube's numbers, means it will at least in part attact beyond the Nintendo core and little kids but that's still 40m. I expect less 'core' gamers to own it than Wii. Mainly because until 2010 Wii offered experiences PS360 could not so it made sense to own both a Wii and a HD system. That's simply not the case here. There's not even a convincing argument to buy a WiiU when you have a current gen system now.

I've no idea what Sony is doing. I wonder if Sony does. If they follow the same path as PSP, PS3, PSVita they will get the same results. Another last place finish. So let's hope they smarten up.

I'd say 40m is a fair estimate of WiiU lifetime sales. I also predict it will have a shorter lifespan (little over 4 years) but launching Wii3 two years after PS4 will allow Nintendo to (potentially) put out the last great home console we're ever likely to see and once again, come out king.

You have a very different memory that I do ...

Many people agreed with John Lucas in a large part because they saw the excitement that the Wii was causing. The people who agreed with John Lucas are disagreeing with you now, and the people who disagreed with John Lucas are in agreement with you now; some of this can be attributed to bind fanboys but there is more to it.

No one agreed with him at first except myself and Kirby007 (I think).  Once sales starting coming in and holding, people slowly began to come around.  When JL said Wii Fit would be massive few argued (except myself, his initial sales numbers were stupid high).

You're completely ignoring on of the key design choices behind the Wii and Wiimote ...

For casual gamers Nintendo wanted to design the Wiimote so that it would look and function in a similar fashion to something they were comfortable with; a television remote control. With the Wii U the controller has been designed to be similar to something people are already comfortable with (a tablet/touch-screen) so why is this a bad thing?

Because no one had a Wiimote. It was new and amazing.  Everyone has a touch screen device - and expectations of those devices which WiiU fail to meet.  Plus there were no damn dual analog controls with 16 buttons on a wiimote.  It's night and day different.

Beyond this, one of the key drivers for success of the Wii is something that used to be fairly common across all gaming devices but has now become the exlusive domain of Nintendo systems; local multiplayer and social gaming. Google, Apple, Microsoft and Sony still completely ignore this massive market and Nintendo continues to innovate in it.

MS sees this market.  Rumours suggest the next kinect will allow 4 player simulanteous.  Beyond that you might be correct but again, the complexity of the gamepad will hinder sales to non-gaming families.  I don't even want to use the gamepad. I'm sure my parents definitely won't even consider it.

You may not see any value in it but local multiplayer sells systems ...

Core Nintendo fans will buy their Wii U bundle at launch and bring it with them to dozens of parties over the holiday season. Their families and friends will paly Nintendoland and have a ton of fun and in the new year they will be looking to buy a system themselves. When they, or members of their family, have friends over they will pick up the Wii U to play games with it and their friends will want it.

They may want it, as long as someone else uses the gamepad controller.   If they have kids to play with, okay.  If not, then they'll let it pass as the gamepad with all it's sticks and buttons will scream 'I'm not for you old man/woman'.   I could see some grandparents getting it for when little Timothy is over but the appeal is far less than the Wii's for non-gamers.

We've seen the same basic pattern several times this generation for both the HD consoles and the Wii and yet everyone remains blind to it. With the HD consoles games like Rockband sold millions of systems because people actually buy systems after they have had positive experiences in real life with them.

I agree but again, I see the gamepad as the stumbling block.  They'd have done 100% better with an revised and improved Wiimote (possibly with touchscreen on it) than going backwards to dual analog.

In my opinion the only mistake Nintendo has made is they didn't allow 6 Wiimotes to be connected to the Wii U.

You have a very different memory that I do ...

Many people agreed with John Lucas in a large part because they saw the excitement that the Wii was causing. The people who agreed with John Lucas are disagreeing with you now, and the people who disagreed with John Lucas are in agreement with you now; some of this can be attributed to bind fanboys but there is more to it.

You're completely ignoring on of the key design choices behind the Wii and Wiimote ...

For casual gamers Nintendo wanted to design the Wiimote so that it would look and function in a similar fashion to something they were comfortable with; a television remote control. With the Wii U the controller has been designed to be similar to something people are already comfortable with (a tablet/touch-screen) so why is this a bad thing?

Beyond this, one of the key drivers for success of the Wii is something that used to be fairly common across all gaming devices but has now become the exlusive domain of Nintendo systems; local multiplayer and social gaming. Google, Apple, Microsoft and Sony still completely ignore this massive market and Nintendo continues to innovate in it.

You may not see any value in it but local multiplayer sells systems ...

Core Nintendo fans will buy their Wii U bundle at launch and bring it with them to dozens of parties over the holiday season. Their families and friends will paly Nintendoland and have a ton of fun and in the new year they will be looking to buy a system themselves. When they, or members of their family, have friends over they will pick up the Wii U to play games with it and their friends will want it.

We've seen the same basic pattern several times this generation for both the HD consoles and the Wii and yet everyone remains blind to it. With the HD consoles games like Rockband sold millions of systems because people actually buy systems after they have had positive experiences in real life with them.

In my opinion the only mistake Nintendo has made is they didn't allow 6 Wiimotes to be connected to the Wii U.

Long story short, several major concerns were alleviated.

1. The large number of ports and multiplat releases seemingly confirms that 3rd parties are taking the Wii U seriously, something that previously was up in the air. We did not know if Call of Duty, the biggest multiplat franchise at the moment, was even coming to the Wii U! The fact that it, Assassin's Creed, Aliens, and all those other multiplat games, even the late ones like Mass Effect 3 and Batman: Arkham City, suggests that 3rd parties are at least willing to test the waters, something many never did for the Wii.

2. The existence of 3rd party exclusives, such as Rayman and ZombiU, suggest that 3rd parties will actually make use of the system's features. ZombiU in particular, which is being bundled in Europe, looks like the first game to prove what the Wii U can do, while also breathing new life into the genre to boot.

3. Nintendo, in addition to their own usual fare, seems to be trying to win back the hardcore gamer, as evidenced by their adoption of the Bayonetta franchise and their publishing of LEGO City and Ninja Gaiden 3. Plus, the new Mario, Mii, and Pikmin games have been looking better and better.

4. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are the strongest non-Nintendo franchises in Japan, proportionately similar to the strength of Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto in the West. Their coming to the Wii U early on, even as ports, suggests that the system will have an easy time establishing dominance there. At very least, Japanese gamers will have a more reasons to pick up Wii Us

A lot of the games are not system sellers and are honestly being overhyped (Pikmin 3 and the LEGO game come to mind), but are solid additions to an increasingly impressive library.

Plus, it's worth noting that most of the games announced so far are launch window titles. These eras are usually poor, especially for recent Nintendo systems. The fact that there is such a variety of quality content makes the Wii U look more like a purchase you won't regret making quickly.