Don't pre-order Killzone 2, if it flops in the reviews, PS3 fanboys can always say it has good sales because they sucked everyone into pre-ordering it :D.
40gb was a good choice, there's not much different (that would warrant forking out the extra dough for the higher end model) because you have a ps2. As for longevity Kasz216 is right, the DVD drive laser means that no matter what, it'll break down eventually. I've had mine for about 5 years now and it's still going strong (silent as ever and no issues with the DVD drive), so fingers crossed yours is about the same.
Get uncharted, it's the only game on the ps3 right now that I want. I've played it, and even though it's not the best game, it's better than the newer tomb raider games (which is the only comparable game that the 360 has at the moment i think). I'm guessing you know this already, but it's probably only worth getting the exclusive for the PS3 OR the multiplatform games that started on the PS3 (DMC4), because right now (and I would say well into the future), the 360 will almost always be the lead platform for multiplatform games, just because developers know they will sell more.