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theshoe23 on 29 April 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Christopher_G2 said:
Well the Wii will be a fad compared to something like the DS which will certainly sell amazing though it's entire lifespan. I'm guessing the Wii has this high period in it's first two years, than through 2009 it begins to plummet. It could be sooner, or it could be later, but eventually I just see a brickwall where 360 and PS3 have games that look so amazing, and the systems will get cheaper, and the casual gamers can no longer ignore them. The Wii will own a good portion of this generation of gaming, make no mistake about it, and the software will be there. Fad is probably not the right word for what the Wii will likely accomplish. Certainly the Wii will have a profound effect on the future of motion sensing gaming, which is where I believe the industry will trend to over the next few decades.

The DS is an interesting console to bring up because there are several parallels to the DS vs. the PSP and the Wii vs. the PS3; the main points would be that:

  1. Sony's Hardware is dramatically more powerful than Nintendo's hardware
  2. Sony started out with far greater third party support than Nintendo did
  3. Sony's hardware had (much) more multimedia functionality than Nintendo's hardware
  4. Sony's online strategy was "better" than Nintendo's online strategy
  5. Sony's hardware was far more expensive than Nintendo's Hardware
  6. Sony's games cost more than Nintendo's games

The main difference is how this competition has began compared to the PSP vs. DS battle. In September 2005 (this will be similar to September 2007 in the lives of the PS3 and Wii) the PSP and DS had sold roughly the same number of consoles (8 Million) worldwide and were both selling at a far slower rate than the Gameboy Advance had; from that point on the DS sold at a much faster rate then the PSP and third party support started to dramatically shift towards the Nintendo DS. In contrast the Wii has started out selling at a much faster rate than the PS3 and is rapidly picking up third party support; if third parties start announcing their major titles to be Wii exclusive (like they have been for the DS) then there is no chance for the PS3 to make a recovery.

On top of all of that, Since late 2001 we have been in a very unusual economic environment; low interest rates and easy to access credit have increased the price of homes to record highs and people have been borrowing against the artificial equity that this produced to buy expensive luxury items. Over the next few years we will be seeing increases in interest rates, massive reductions in housing costs, unusually high mortgage forclosures, and higher unemployment; the combination of all these factors will make it difficult to sell any console but any console that is over $200 or $300 will be next to impossible to sell

Hi folks,

I'm a brand new member but I have been lurking for a long time. HappySquirrel, the statement that I've highlighted above could happen, but only for certain types of games. You aren't going to see GTA 5 or FF 14 as a Wii exclusive. These games are not particularly enhanced by the Wii-Remote and therefore if they were to be developed on such a platform of the technology level of the Wii it would be more likely developed for the PS2 because it already has a 100 million user base. I understand that you like the Wii, I had one too but I wanted to "try" a PS3 and I was tired of my Wii so I traded it in for it. Wii may sell the most, but like the DS it will be a nonissue to me and gamers like me, as the games I most like to play are still going to be found on PS3 and Xbox 360. I am a casual gamer but not like Nintendo wants me to be. I don't enjoy cooking simulators or dog simulators or brain enhancement games. I work as a programmer (problem-solver) for a living and that makes me think enough :P

PS. I own a PS3 and a 360 and I love them both but 360 is my choice right now while PS3 is virtually gameless. Don't try calling me a fanboy :)

 



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HappySqurriel on 29 April 2007
theshoe23 said:
 

Hi folks,

I'm a brand new member but I have been lurking for a long time. HappySquirrel, the statement that I've highlighted above could happen, but only for certain types of games. You aren't going to see GTA 5 or FF 14 as a Wii exclusive. These games are not particularly enhanced by the Wii-Remote and therefore if they were to be developed on such a platform of the technology level of the Wii it would be more likely developed for the PS2 because it already has a 100 million user base. I understand that you like the Wii, I had one too but I wanted to "try" a PS3 and I was tired of my Wii so I traded it in for it. Wii may sell the most, but like the DS it will be a nonissue to me and gamers like me, as the games I most like to play are still going to be found on PS3 and Xbox 360. I am a casual gamer but not like Nintendo wants me to be. I don't enjoy cooking simulators or dog simulators or brain enhancement games. I work as a programmer (problem-solver) for a living and that makes me think enough :P

PS. I own a PS3 and a 360 and I love them both but 360 is my choice right now while PS3 is virtually gameless. Don't try calling me a fanboy :)

 


You could have said the same thing about the DS' dual screens and touch screen not adding that much to Dragon Quest yet the DS is the exclusive platform of Dragon Quest 9. Certainly, not every developer will rush to produce their major franchises exclusively on the Wii but (as I have said before) sales performance matters far more to publishers then processing performance. Basically, when a publisher looks at the sales charts in Japan and sees that the Nintendo DS has outsole the PSP 3 to 1 and outsells the PSP and PS2 combined 3 to 1 on a weekly basis they decide that the Nintendo DS is the platform to target if they want Japaneese sales.



Gamecraze on 29 April 2007

It seems to me that everyone saying the wii will go into decline in 2008/2009 whatever, are doing it puerly on the logic that Graphics are superior to gameplay.

I think that this generation is the ultimate test of that theory.

If the wii does start to decline, then graphics beat out gameplay (yes i am saying the wii has stronger gameplay than the other 2)

But if it does not, then we'll see if gameplay actually can beat out graphics.

Starcraft is a good example of gameplay over graphics.  Old but still crazy popular.  Skorea for example.

Shooters are the next prettiest thing wins, more or less.  But that's because gameplay is not brought into play very often, at least not drastically.

Gameplay makes thing survive, graphics do not.

We shall see if gameplay can beat out graphics for once.  We are now waiting for the Wii games with the gameplay to emerge, because just like the Cell potential or whatever, I dont think we've scratched the surface yet.  Or at the very least, Cell's current usage is = to Wii's gameplay usage currently as far as potential, altho I personally see more potential left in the wii, than the ps3's cell.  I could very well be wrong about this, but we'll see.

 

 



z64dan on 30 April 2007

Alright kwaad here's your argument: The Wii cannot survive because it has bad graphics. That argument doesn't work, because when people buy the Wii, they already KNOW that the graphics aren't as wonderful as the PS3 or 360. They don't care though, because they want to play those games they saw their friends playing, and be happy. Nintendo is expanding the videogame market - bringing in NEW CUSTOMERS. These new customers don't care about graphics. They DONT CARE. The PS3 could have a million teraflops or terabytes and nobody would care. These new customers want to wave the controller and make their bowling ball move, they don't care about Lair or any other PS3 game, because it is irrelevant to them. Nintendo is targeting older audiences, at a perfect time. The baby boomers of the 50's are retiring now and they don't have anything to do. They are also somewhat more tech-savvy than the previous retirees. So they buy a Wii and purchase games for it!