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Forums - Politics Discussion - Economist: civilization may not survive "death spiral"

China is as fucked, if not more fucked, than the USA.

The China Model is Unsustainable
China and the Development Myth
Bust Looms as China Booms
Can Bubbles Also Be Made In China
Can China Transorm its Mode of Growth



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SamuelRSmith said:

China is as fucked, if not more fucked, than the USA.

The China Model is Unsustainable
China and the Development Myth
Bust Looms as China Booms
Can Bubbles Also Be Made In China
Can China Transorm its Mode of Growth

I recall reading in a book if China doesn't maintaing at least a 5% growth rate, the train is going to derail for them.



SamuelRSmith said:

China is as fucked, if not more fucked, than the USA.

The China Model is Unsustainable
China and the Development Myth
Bust Looms as China Booms
Can Bubbles Also Be Made In China
Can China Transorm its Mode of Growth

I'd say your 'as much' would be probably be pretty accurate. Problem is, if China crashes and burns, the States either takes the punches or goes down hard as well. This whole thing is like trying to tiptoe across a floor of rat traps.

China owns over a trillion dollars in the USA's foreign debt and are buying it up at massive amounts, helping to keep the States solvent (among other things), thus enabling it so Americans can continue to buy more of the stuff they produce, etc. Nasty circle. The two are so intertwined that this is why you'll never see a war between the US and China. Neither side could afford it.



CChaos said:
SamuelRSmith said:

China is as fucked, if not more fucked, than the USA.

The China Model is Unsustainable
China and the Development Myth
Bust Looms as China Booms
Can Bubbles Also Be Made In China
Can China Transorm its Mode of Growth

I'd say your 'as much' would be probably be pretty accurate. Problem is, if China crashes and burns, the States either takes the punches or goes down hard as well. This whole thing is like trying to tiptoe across a floor of rat traps.

China owns over a trillion dollars in the USA's foreign debt and are buying it up at massive amounts, helping to keep the States solvent (among other things), thus enabling it so Americans can continue to buy more of the stuff they produce, etc. Nasty circle. The two are so intertwined that this is why you'll never see a war between the US and China. Neither side could afford it.

The difference between the USA and China is that the USA has much, much, larger capital stock. No matter what happens, the USA will still have the most educated work force in the world, the most advanced machinery, etc., etc.

The problem with China is that it's facing these problems and its capital stock is so much lower. A financial meltdown won't cause the factories to disappear into thin air, but it will stop any new ones from being built.

This is why I said "if not more".



Economists are false prophets of doom. Economists are great at studying economic events after they have happened. Economist future forecasts based on past trends do not take into account Black Swan Effect and other unexpected events.

The easiest way to get rid of inextinguishable debts is to simply abandon one currency and switch to another currency. It is about time the Euro is ditched in favour of nations having their own currencies.  Germany is  forced to subsidise the weaker nations in the European Union.



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Dark_Lord_2008 said:

Economists are false prophets of doom. Economists are great at studying economic events after they have happened. Economist future forecasts based on past trends do not take into account Black Swan Effect and other unexpected events.

The easiest way to get rid of inextinguishable debts is to simply abandon one currency and switch to another currency. It is about time the Euro is ditched in favour of nations having their own currencies.  Germany is  forced to subsidise the weaker nations in the European Union.

Depends on the economist, and the school that they follow. Austrians are descriptive, while other schools tend to be prescriptive, or worse, reactive.

It's no wonder that Austrians predicted everything that was going to happen in 2008. But nobody would listen to them.



RedInker said:
16 trillion Dollars!!! Fuck me thats a lot of money. Time to seriously tighten the purse srrings.

In 2000, as Bill Clinton left office, the debt was down to $6 trillion, But by 2008 because Bush started 2 wars and introduces massive tax cuts, it rose to $11 trillion and now due to the recession, it is $16 trillion under Obama.

The USA is practically worth nothing now, it's debt is $1 trillion above it's own GDP, which is $15 trillion. Whoever, get's elected now, need's to sort it before it's to late, it won't be easy, but something has to be done, or America is gone.  



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

the2real4mafol said:
RedInker said:
16 trillion Dollars!!! Fuck me thats a lot of money. Time to seriously tighten the purse srrings.

In 2000, as Bill Clinton left office, the debt was down to $6 trillion, But by 2008 because Bush started 2 wars and introduces massive tax cuts, it rose to $11 trillion and now due to the recession, it is $16 trillion under Obama.

The USA is practically worth nothing now, it's debt is $1 trillion above it's own GDP, which is $15 trillion. Whoever, get's elected now, need's to sort it before it's to late, it won't be easy, but something has to be done, or America is gone.  

"Down" to 6 trillion is a misuese.   The government's debt went up under clinton... by quite a bit.

The National Debt ended at 6 trillion under Clinton.

It started at 4.4 Trillion... and increased every year he was in office.

Fiscal
Year
Year
Ending
National Debt Deficit
FY1993  09/30/1993  $4.411488 trillion  
FY1994  09/30/1994  $4.692749 trillion  $281.26 billion
FY1995  09/29/1995  $4.973982 trillion  $281.23 billion
FY1996  09/30/1996  $5.224810 trillion  $250.83 billion
FY1997  09/30/1997  $5.413146 trillion  $188.34 billion
FY1998  09/30/1998  $5.526193 trillion  $113.05 billion
FY1999  09/30/1999  $5.656270 trillion  $130.08 billion
FY2000  09/29/2000  $5.674178 trillion  $17.91 billion
FY2001  09/28/2001  $5.807463 trillion  $133.29 billion

 

 

What Clinton did was pay down government debt by doing things like raiding social security for money.



Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
RedInker said:
16 trillion Dollars!!! Fuck me thats a lot of money. Time to seriously tighten the purse srrings.

In 2000, as Bill Clinton left office, the debt was down to $6 trillion, But by 2008 because Bush started 2 wars and introduces massive tax cuts, it rose to $11 trillion and now due to the recession, it is $16 trillion under Obama.

The USA is practically worth nothing now, it's debt is $1 trillion above it's own GDP, which is $15 trillion. Whoever, get's elected now, need's to sort it before it's to late, it won't be easy, but something has to be done, or America is gone.  

"Down" to 6 trillion is a misuese.   The government's debt went up under clinton... by quite a bit.

The National Debt ended at 6 trillion under Clinton.

It started at 4.4 Trillion... and increased every year he was in office.

Fiscal
Year
Year
Ending
National Debt Deficit
FY1993  09/30/1993  $4.411488 trillion  
FY1994  09/30/1994  $4.692749 trillion  $281.26 billion
FY1995  09/29/1995  $4.973982 trillion  $281.23 billion
FY1996  09/30/1996  $5.224810 trillion  $250.83 billion
FY1997  09/30/1997  $5.413146 trillion  $188.34 billion
FY1998  09/30/1998  $5.526193 trillion  $113.05 billion
FY1999  09/30/1999  $5.656270 trillion  $130.08 billion
FY2000  09/29/2000  $5.674178 trillion  $17.91 billion
FY2001  09/28/2001  $5.807463 trillion  $133.29 billion

 

 

What Clinton did was pay down government debt by doing things like raiding social security for money.

A increase of $1.6 trillion in debt under 8 years of Clinton is relatively small, when it went $5 trillion under Bush (8 years) and another $5 trillion under Obama in just 4 years!!! Either way, it's not good, it's very unstainable and America can't have another 4 years where it gains another $5 trillion of debt!

America needs a president who will take out all the stops to improve the economy, while limiting excessive spending. I think they should temporarily halt all Foreign policy activities (wars, foreign aid etc.) and increase all taxes (especially on millionaires and billionaires!) Cutting, stuff at home like police or education should be limited.

The time for true change is now! 



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

the2real4mafol said:
Kasz216 said:
the2real4mafol said:
RedInker said:
16 trillion Dollars!!! Fuck me thats a lot of money. Time to seriously tighten the purse srrings.

In 2000, as Bill Clinton left office, the debt was down to $6 trillion, But by 2008 because Bush started 2 wars and introduces massive tax cuts, it rose to $11 trillion and now due to the recession, it is $16 trillion under Obama.

The USA is practically worth nothing now, it's debt is $1 trillion above it's own GDP, which is $15 trillion. Whoever, get's elected now, need's to sort it before it's to late, it won't be easy, but something has to be done, or America is gone.  

"Down" to 6 trillion is a misuese.   The government's debt went up under clinton... by quite a bit.

The National Debt ended at 6 trillion under Clinton.

It started at 4.4 Trillion... and increased every year he was in office.

Fiscal
Year
Year
Ending
National Debt Deficit
FY1993  09/30/1993  $4.411488 trillion  
FY1994  09/30/1994  $4.692749 trillion  $281.26 billion
FY1995  09/29/1995  $4.973982 trillion  $281.23 billion
FY1996  09/30/1996  $5.224810 trillion  $250.83 billion
FY1997  09/30/1997  $5.413146 trillion  $188.34 billion
FY1998  09/30/1998  $5.526193 trillion  $113.05 billion
FY1999  09/30/1999  $5.656270 trillion  $130.08 billion
FY2000  09/29/2000  $5.674178 trillion  $17.91 billion
FY2001  09/28/2001  $5.807463 trillion  $133.29 billion

 

 

What Clinton did was pay down government debt by doing things like raiding social security for money.

A increase of $1.6 trillion in debt under 8 years of Clinton is relatively small, when it went $5 trillion under Bush (8 years) and another $5 trillion under Obama in just 4 years!!! Either way, it's not good, it's very unstainable and America can't have another 4 years where it gains another $5 trillion of debt!

America needs a president who will take out all the stops to improve the economy, while limiting excessive spending. I think they should temporarily halt all Foreign policy activities (wars, foreign aid etc.) and increase all taxes (especially on millionaires and billionaires!) Cutting, stuff at home like police or education should be limited.

The time for true change is now! 

And I thought you were an Obama guy.

Either way, the point is... the national debt never goes down. 

Even the most fiscally conservative republican is just talking about lowering the increase in government spending and debt for about 20 years until they aren't in office anymore.

Nobody has a plan to get us to no debt by 2016, 2020 or even 2028.