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Forums - Politics Discussion - presidential swing state thread UPDATE 10-18, Romney continues momentum

the2real4mafol on 20 August 2012
chriscox1121 said:

I thought it would be a good idea to have this thread so we can talk about current polls and why states are leaning towards said candidate or swinging to the other.  This isn't a dedicated thread to argue over policies or to spew talking points, but I understand points have to be brought up.  I'll try to keep up with polls regularly, but certainly not everyday cause i don't have the time, but others here are more than welcome to add their own findings.

So to start out, the latest RCP averages (btw I rounded the %'s unless it's really close) on most of the swing states are provided below with Obama carrying most of the swing states and being a clear front runner in PA, although the latest Rasmussen polls have Romney up in FL,WI and deadlocked in OH.

WI Romney 45% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

FL Romney 46% Obama 47%

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

OH Romney 45% Obama 49%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

PA Romney 42% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

CO Romney 47% Obama 48%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

VA Romeny 45.8% Obama 46.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

NH Romney 45% Obama 48%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

IA Romney 44% Obama 45%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html

NC Romney 48% Obama 47%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

 

The latest Rasmussen report

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

And, if anyone wants to create their own map on how they see the 2012 election going or just want to play around with the numbers, please enjoy

http://www.270towin.com

 

 

 

which of these states are republican?

as it's bloody close between them



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chriscox1121 on 22 August 2012

Latest polls provided by the RCP

Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama Marquette University Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama LVRJ/SurveyUSA Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Baydoun/Foster (D) Obama 44, Romney 48 Romney +4
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
Virginia: Romney vs. Obama PPP (D) Obama 50, Romney 45 Obama +5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/




chriscox1121 on 22 August 2012
the2real4mafol said:
chriscox1121 said:

I thought it would be a good idea to have this thread so we can talk about current polls and why states are leaning towards said candidate or swinging to the other.  This isn't a dedicated thread to argue over policies or to spew talking points, but I understand points have to be brought up.  I'll try to keep up with polls regularly, but certainly not everyday cause i don't have the time, but others here are more than welcome to add their own findings.

So to start out, the latest RCP averages (btw I rounded the %'s unless it's really close) on most of the swing states are provided below with Obama carrying most of the swing states and being a clear front runner in PA, although the latest Rasmussen polls have Romney up in FL,WI and deadlocked in OH.

WI Romney 45% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

FL Romney 46% Obama 47%

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

OH Romney 45% Obama 49%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

PA Romney 42% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

CO Romney 47% Obama 48%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

VA Romeny 45.8% Obama 46.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

NH Romney 45% Obama 48%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

IA Romney 44% Obama 45%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html

NC Romney 48% Obama 47%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

 

The latest Rasmussen report

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

And, if anyone wants to create their own map on how they see the 2012 election going or just want to play around with the numbers, please enjoy

http://www.270towin.com

 

 

 

which of these states are republican?

as it's bloody close between them


I've provided a link for you that will show the voting history of any state you want.  Obama turned a lot of red states blue last election, but it's hard to say at this point where a lot of those states are heading this term except for Indiana, which has Romney up comfortably over Obama.

http://www.270towin.com/states/




chriscox1121 on 22 August 2012

additions or changes to the RCP average

NV Obama 49% Romney 45%
WI Obama 48.6% Romney 46.4%
MI Obama 48% Romney 43%
VA Obama 48% Romney 46%




chriscox1121 on 23 August 2012

Florida: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Romney 46, Obama 49 Obama +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 49, Romney 47 Obama +2
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. Obama 49, Romney 46 Obama +3




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Mr Khan on 23 August 2012

Odd that Romney is up in Michigan. Was the auto-industry bailout ill-received over there?



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chriscox1121 on 23 August 2012

changes to the RCP average

FL Obama 46.3% Romney 46.3% Obama down 1%
OH Obama 46.8% Romney 45% Obama down 2.2%
WI Obama 48.2% Romney 46.8% Obama down 2%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/




chriscox1121 on 23 August 2012
Mr Khan said:
Odd that Romney is up in Michigan. Was the auto-industry bailout ill-received over there?

i actually couldn't beieve it when I seen it. 




the2real4mafol on 24 August 2012
chriscox1121 said:
the2real4mafol said:
chriscox1121 said:

I thought it would be a good idea to have this thread so we can talk about current polls and why states are leaning towards said candidate or swinging to the other.  This isn't a dedicated thread to argue over policies or to spew talking points, but I understand points have to be brought up.  I'll try to keep up with polls regularly, but certainly not everyday cause i don't have the time, but others here are more than welcome to add their own findings.

So to start out, the latest RCP averages (btw I rounded the %'s unless it's really close) on most of the swing states are provided below with Obama carrying most of the swing states and being a clear front runner in PA, although the latest Rasmussen polls have Romney up in FL,WI and deadlocked in OH.

WI Romney 45% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

FL Romney 46% Obama 47%

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president

OH Romney 45% Obama 49%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

PA Romney 42% Obama 49%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

CO Romney 47% Obama 48%

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

VA Romeny 45.8% Obama 46.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

NH Romney 45% Obama 48%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

IA Romney 44% Obama 45%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html

NC Romney 48% Obama 47%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

 

The latest Rasmussen report

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

And, if anyone wants to create their own map on how they see the 2012 election going or just want to play around with the numbers, please enjoy

http://www.270towin.com

 

 

 

which of these states are republican?

as it's bloody close between them


I've provided a link for you that will show the voting history of any state you want.  Obama turned a lot of red states blue last election, but it's hard to say at this point where a lot of those states are heading this term except for Indiana, which has Romney up comfortably over Obama.

http://www.270towin.com/states/

This is quite interesting, very factual 



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'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

HappySqurriel on 24 August 2012
Mr Khan said:
Odd that Romney is up in Michigan. Was the auto-industry bailout ill-received over there?

Michigan's employment to population ratio at the end of 2011 was 53.9% ... In real terms the unemployment rate is (probably) really close to 20% or 25%, and there is also (probably) substantial underemployment. Usually, when an economy gets to be this bad, people tend to vote against incumbents.