You arent alone.  I've only be saying this for the last 2 to 3 years.... The YEN is absolutely slaughtering the Japanese exporters, couple that with reduced demand on top of a global recession that is hitting Europe really hard and you have a nightmare scenario.

I remember starting a thread about 3 years ago where I said (to paraphrase) "How can Sony afford to give a price cut in Europe when they already have?", basically the premise being that the yen had strengthened a great deal and that Sony had swallowed this (not increasing prices - as they arguably should have done) and therefore had given a price cut without giving a price cut... make sense? 

What has caused that?  3DS price cut, slow Wii sales & exchange rate?  Quite a significant loss of reserves.

edit: I suppose Wii-U R&D as well.

Nintendo will publish its Q1 FY 2012 results (April 1st to June 30th) on July 25th, approximately 3pm JST.

Q1 Expectations?

Nintendo forecast a return to profit this full year (ending march 2013) to the tune of about $250m, so we can expect a loss this quarter again I think, as most of this profit will come in qtr3 and qtr4.

Nintendo cash reserves fell from $10bn to $5.9bn in the 12 months to March 2012, that needs to slow down dramatically.

see my post above. 

$17bn to $13.5bn  (but remember this does include buildings, factories, machinery and stock etc)

Thise figures are for the end of March though.  I doubt any of routine WiiU manufacturing costs are in there?  They wouldnt pay up front for that surely.

The biggest loss here will be primarily the Yen coupled with 3DS price reduction.

For example, Sony loses about 6 billion yen of operating income for every 1 yen movement in the wrong direction. The Euro is currently trading almost 10 below what they forecast, so Sony have lost 60 billion yen ($766m) of operating income simply as a result of the Yen/Euro change

Not sure on the rules on that, but i dont think it works that way I'm afraid.

Markets just opened.

Nintendo down 1.55% (which is in line with the Dow actually, so no great alarm)

Sony down 4% already to 11.65 (under 12 for the first time in years) - market cap down to $11.65bn - unbelievable really. Thats down 44% in just 3 months since the Kaz speech. Scary stuff.

If so, then they would have been predicting too far ahead. 2D Mario is clearly Q3/fiscal Q2

The big problem here is that they pegged their predictions on the Japanese Treasury's confidence that they could reverse deflation, which was only a flash in the pan. Plus i'm not sure if the 3DS has actually hit profitability yet (i think their target for that was fiscal Q2, specifically next month), so we could be in for more bad news.

I think thats a certainty.  Iwata has already said they arent porfitable yet, so this Q1 (and prob Q2) is a write off.  The WiiU launch has to be a very good one or they wont be profitable for the year.  I think its that simple.