Just been looking through some of my old threads and found this one.
In July 2012, I wrote an article predicting what will happen with the pending PS4 launch. Now we have all the data, let's take a look how I did.
Launch Date
What I predicted: Reveal E3 2013 - Launch Oct/Nov 2014
What happened: Reveal Feb '13 - Launch Nov '13
Price
What I Predicted: $400 and $450 with larger HDD
What happened: $400 no optional larger HDD
UI
What I predicted: With more RAM will offer a quicker more streamlined experience, cross chat and the ability to run multi apps. Cross media might not make it
What happened: What I predicted. XMB kinda survived
Architecture
What I predicted: Death of the Cell, conventional GPU and CPU method, developer friendly
What happened: What I predicted
Blu Ray
What I predicted: Sony would stick with Blu Ray but use a disc with more than 2 layers
What happened: Sony stuck with Blu Ray but only use dual layer
Membership
What I predicted: You will pay for online multiplayer but all their services like Gaikai, Music Unlimited, Cross chat, PS Plus etc will be covered my one membership.
What happened: Multiplayer is now part of PS Plus but the other services are separate memberships. Cross chat is free.
Dualshock 4
What I predicted: L2 and R2 will become trigger shaped and the latest rumble tech.
What happened: A complete overhaul, still using standard rumble, touch pad and light bar on front. Got the triggers right though.
Move 2
What I predicted: Move will be updated, coloured ball removed, head tracking and distance judged in a similar way to Kinect
What happened: Stuck with the original Move, looks like main use will be for VR.
Original Article
Information about the PlayStation 4 is a bit vague at the moment with a lot of rumours and opinions flying around. We try and get to the bottom of what to expect when it finally hit the shelves.
PS4 Launch Date and Price
They have to get this right. Launching in the next 2 years wouldn’t make business sense, PS3 is going strong right now and releasing a new console sooner rather than later would only see potential money gained from the PS3 lost. When you add the competition into the mix then you do not want to give them a head start. Sony will be looking for the best time to release the PS4 and maximise their profits. With E3 already gone and the strong rumours that Sony’s next hardware release being a super slim PS3, you can’t see a PS4 being announced this year. When Sony announce a console they usually release it the following year so 2013 E3 announcement and October/November 2014 release date looks the most likely. The price is also a major factor they have to get right, again they have to balance it so they can maximum profit. The higher they go, the more profit they will make on each console but they would also deter more buyers. With PS3 they got it drastically wrong but it was mainly due to them painting themselves into a corner. The development of the Cell chip and the inclusion of the expensive (in 2006) Blu-Ray drive saw the console being retailed at a whopping $499 & $599. A massive jump from $299 that the PS2 launched at. The Xbox 360 launched at $399 so we expect that the PS4 will launch and a similar price with an option for a PS4 with a higher HDD (Hard Disk Drive) at around $450.
PS4 User Interface & Cross Chat
Will Sony keep the XMB (Cross Media Bar) UI (User Interface)? That’s not certain but one thing that is, is that the UI will have access to more RAM which will result in instant loading when accessing the UI while in game. This also means that apps could run while in game and even cross chat will be a possibility
Death of the Cell
This was virtually confirmed by exclusion of the Cell chip in the Vita. The truth is that the Cell made developers sweat just to get a game looking similar to its multiplatform counterpart which lead to most multiplatform games looking better on the Xbox 360. Sony now want to take a route that is more developer friendly that was employed while making the Vita. This fresh direction that Sony are taking will almost certainly see them use a more conventional GPU and CPU method which means the cell will be pushed out of the frame.
PS4 Will Stick to Blu-Ray
The PS3 was used to champion the Blu-Ray format which was a high risk move that did pay off. Blu-Ray won the format wars and sees an ever increasing amount of popularity that is slowly chipping away at DVD. When the PS4 is released in 2 years time, will it be too soon for a change of format? We think so. Sony, part of the group that developed Blu-Ray, will more than likely want to keep earning off their investment a little longer. What they are more likely to do is use Blu-Rays with more layers. Dual layer is currently what the PS3 uses now, which is about 50GB of storage. With 3D becoming more common and the expectation of next gen games to be running at least 1080p and 60fps, 50GB will not be enough. The tech is already out there for even more Blu-Ray layers and we fully expect the PS4 to take advantage of this.
Gaikai and Other Services Could be PS4’s Gold Membership
There are a few decent services on PS3 but it all seems a bit fragmented. PS plus, Music Unlimited, Video Store, Vidzone and with the addition Gaikai now give Sony a reason to charge you for a subscription, just like on the Xbox 360. Sony will learn a few things off Microsoft this gen and one of those lessons will be that you will not deter many consumers by charging for membership. These services will probably continue to be used as separate items for the PS3 but next gen could see all those, cross chat and being able to play online at the cost of a membership fee.
Dualshock 4
Before PS3 announced that they wouldn’t be using Dualshock at the start of this generation, there were rumours that they would be using new rumble tech in their pads. This didn’t materialise and an on-going law suit between Sony and Immersion (creators of Dualshock) could have been the reason that eventually it wasn’t used. The tech used created rumbles on different parts of the pad that gave different sensations to the user. Also maybe we could see some treaks to the L2 and R2 which could be more like triggers and stop finger slippage and the analog sticks made a little less sensitive with a bit more resistance.
Move: Version 2
Move on PS4 is anybody’s guess. It’s a little confusing at the moment because they target the Move mostly at the hardcore but the thing as a glowing ball at the end (most of the time pink) that would be more suited to children and casual gamers. They need to lose that ball, or at least make it detachable, and incorporate another method that can judge your distance like in the tech used for Kinect. What would be even cooler is if the incorporated head tracking 3D which is explained here.
Full article: http://www.gamingcapacity.com/ps4-what-to-expect/
