Because you can take the word "ship" by word. They bring them by ship. That takes 20-25 days. So now if you fly them (5 days max from production to shelf) you get and extra 15-20 days supply at first, but have to sit it out if you go again by ship (which is cheaper).

I still think you are wrong on some of the things you said in that post. Particularly the part in that thread where you were saying ALL of the production was going to one place. After that point we agreed that they were pushing supply ahead in quantities smaller than the entirety of production...I don't think we agreed on a quantity but just the fact that you weren't asserting that all of production was going to the US brought your ideas back into the realm of possibility.

In any case we both made predictions for the January lull. You predicted 120k, I predicted 80-90k and said that with increased production your 120k wasn't completely unlikely. Either way the result this week was 65k so while you were off by almost 100% I was off by a little less than 50% on the outside prediction. About twice as accurate numerically speaking.

Also, I don't think I exactly called you a fool either, but we both know how disingenuous that potshot was. The only thing I strongly said you were incorrect about was that all of the production from Nov went to the US and the idea that there would be ZERO supply for early January. I'm not 100% sure that was actually your position so I have given you room to state otherwise but if that is/was your position then you can definitely tell people I thought it was foolish.

However what you cannot do is take a comment about one idea in a thread and apply it to all of your ideas in that thread. I've responded to you on this issue several times and would appreciate it if you stopped misrepresenting my positions and prior statements.

Nintendo put their ASS into getting supply together for the holidays!

Now we're seeing the reaction to that surge.

This has taught Nintendo a crucial lesson. As a result they will up supply to numbers we may have never believed possible. This will result in the 60 million by 2008 I predicted. The games they are going to be having this year DEMANDS significant supply. They will try their best to meet it.

And fail. But they will TRY to meet it resulting in some really really strong numbers this year.

Commence the 2nd phase! *clap clap*

John Lucas 

sqrl-

I never singled you out. And said you were the one who said I was wrong alone. Others disagreed. I do not believe they Air Frieghted them in personally. I think they did it the way I suggested(taken Japan's early Nov alotment and adding it to US christmas rush) then reverting it.

Our conversation in the thread you linked to was easily the most prevalent of the thread. Whether you meant it that way or not the implication being made is clear.

I'm perfectly willing to except it wasn't intentional. I'm not looking for a fight or drama here. My post was due to my responding to this issue several times without a reply from you. I am simply trying to point out that while we disagreed on details we did actually agree quite a bit on mechanisms. I honestly don't put a lot of weight on the numbers or how close either of us was because as I said it doesn't prove much beyond an ability to connect the dots for either of us.

I do however think you are going a bit overboard to create a thread which basically says "Hey I was right!". But if thats what you want to do then by all means, have at it, just don't become Soriku or anything =P

If that was the case you would have similar worldwide numbers but more units sold in Japan to compensate the lower units sold in NA but that is clearly not the case as the numbers are drastically down in all territories this week.

When I was at school I wouldn't get full mark if I had the right solution to a math problem if there were glaring errors in my intermediate steps, and while your American prediction was right, so was sqrl's but the consequence of your no-air-freighting prediction have been proven wrong so your theory is wrong.

I'm tired of this supply constrained crap. Nintendo needs to get their act together, the system has been out for 14 months and they have yet to meet demand. Maybe they are afraid to truly ramp up production because they are afraid that it really is a fad????????

I can't believe anyone was surprised by this. The only surprise to me was that they sold so many.

I think japan's sales were close to normal, again they may be piling up some consoles for SSBB release in a week or 2. I think they would want at least 200k of consoles on hand for that.

Well, remember, Nintendo will be always making money only because they make little amount of console per week. Se what happened to the Gamecube...
I know that this make people angry, but, think at Nintendo and at the incoming SSBB!