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Forums - Gaming - Next gen will about Smart OSs and Nintendo/Sony will be Android OEMs. (updated with MS massive leak)

EDIT: See bottom of OP for latest updates.

 

I've been saying this, in essence, for awhile now and I think its becoming more and more clear. But lets break it down per company.

Apple

Hardware:
iOS has been continuously gaining gaming capabilities every year with every iteration of hardware and software. iPad3 is more powerful than the 3DS/Wii and almost at par with Vita. I'd put money on iPhone 5, coming this summer, being equal to Vita. This also puts it really close to PS360. Meaning that the next iterations in 2013 should be surpassing them all and closing in on next-gen hardware.

Controls:
iOS can sync with bluetooth controllers or have virtual controllers. So really, there's no reason a phone or tablet couldn't compete. Then we have the iTV set-top box and the rumored Apple TVs launching later this year. By 2013, these will also be at par with what's out now and maybe even next-gen hardware. However, next-gen hardware will probably be matched the following year.

Software:
3rd parties are already pushing their content on iOS. Then you look at OnLive streaming service and realize its also on iOS and bam you have it all. Further more, as the hardware increases annually, we'll see the exact same 3rd party software on iOS in 2013, without separate OnLive like services.

 

Microsoft

Hardware:
We already know the neXtBox or Durango is coming and it will be top-tier.

Controls:
We already know MS has their controller plus Kinect, as much as I think it isn't for pure gaming, is going to continue to advance and simply get better. Even allowing better UI for menu and other content outside of gaming. Basically allowing a virtual touch interface... or even a literal touch interface with integration with Win8 phones/tablets.

Software:
Windows 8. This is MS corner stone into all aspects of their hardware. From PCs to tablets to their set-top box... the next Xbox. MS wants to get back into competing with Apple and Google directly. PC OS is fine, but their multimedia and mobile OS has been lagging. Win8 is the game changer for them. It provides a solid OS for ALL platforms and MS is hoping the singular and thoroughly integrated UI will push PC customers to their phones, tablets, and of course the next Xbox. Here we'll see MS provide a fully PC/Media/Gaming system with Metro UI and Live network. You can already see this with the changes put in place in both beta Win8 for PCs and the last dashboard change in the X360.

Google

Hardware:
Google supplies the software and pushes OEMs to build amazing hardware. There is no denying the various OEMs continue to push the boundaries and in the same path as Apple, will be dedicated console levels in 2013. Expect to see Samsung, LG, Sony (non-Playstation related), HTC, Motorola, Asus, etc all to have phones, tablets, and set-top boxes with Android that exceed PS360 in 2013.

Controls:
Similar to iOS, sync bluetooth controllers and you have the exact same experience. Plus additional inter-connectivity through touch and cameras.

Software:
Pretty much identical to iOS here as well. It is a little behind in some areas, however, Android also has OnLive and will continue to grow as its latest version has greatly helped developer screen issues. Combine that with Google's own statement during CES this year that 2013 will see a market push directly at gaming just like they moved into music and movies this past year.

Nintendo

Hardware:
We already know Wii U is coming and based on rumors (see my comparison thread), it will definitely compete directly with other consoles.

Controls:
Here is where Nintendo always excels. You'll get the same dual analog experience, plus motion, plus touch. Nintendo is clearly taking the full cross over approach to have all bases covered for any type of gaming.

Software:
Excluding Nintendo's market leading IPs, they should also be back in the 3rd party game as long as the rumors prove true and the hardware is close to its competitors. Additionally, we have the rumors and strong evidence that Nintendo will provide Android in some fashion to the device. This means Nintendo will effectively be an Android OEM. You'll get the same OS, apps, web, etc, plus Nintendo's uniqueness and first party content.

Sony

Hardware:
We already know a PS4 or Orbis is on its way. What we don't know is its power. Based on latest rumors it could be technically weaker then Wii U or more powerful and closer to the next Xbox. Either way it will be a player in the market.

Controls:
Sony will continue to be Sony. Dual shock controller and all. Plus the possibility of an improved Move or integration with Sony Vita or other Sony (or rooted Android) tablets and phones.

Software:
3rd party content will of course be there as will the multitude of Sony first party. The difference will be in the latest rumors. Direct integration with streaming content like OnLive and what is already being built out with Vita. OR Sony might take the Android approach since its an already mature OS and network and simply add their own OEM style skin and Playstation content.

Summary

 What I hope I have demonstrated is that the dedicated console is effectively dead. Sony stated since PS1 days they wanted to make Playstation TV connected computer. MS took that as a thread and created Xbox and its Live network. Both companies this gen proved exactly this with a high level of network, computing, browsing, and inter-connectivity with PCs and other items. Nintendo lagged behind, but late in Wii's life started trying to add what it could and every rumor of Wii U points to them continuing this approach.

iOS and Android are clearly moving more and more into that same realm. They've already cornered mobile computing and dabbled in TV connected computing. They are already pushing further and further into core and mainstream gaming. There is no denying this.

What we'll see in 2013 and beyond is the transition and true future of gaming, computing, communications, etc. All of these markets have collided and will result in a continuation of what started in smartphones with iPhone's debut.

Next gen will be smart multimedia set-top devices, not gaming consoles. They will be OS branded and equal in importance to first party games. Casuals will buy them more for a few casual games and as natural extensions of their smartphones and tablets.

So what's your new banner? iOS, Win, or Android.

 

***** update 5/30

Some interesting developments from today.

Apple confirmed it will continue to move into TVs and not dedicated consoles. That it is already a big player in gaming and that will continue to grow.

Sony has new big rumors that its moving more to a streaming concept for gaming that what has been known as traditional consoles/retail. Add that to the PS4 spec rumors that are noticeably lower or similar to Wii U and Sony's smartTV and bluray business and you have a very real move to what is detailed in my OP. A Sony Playstation ecosystem that exists across all their smart products.

 

****** update 6/21

I decided to bump this thread due to Microsoft's 56 page slide show that proves exactly what I'm saying.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=144506

In case you missed it, recently a powerpoint presentation from 2010 has leaked on the net. It foreshadows everything MS has done in 2011 and 2012 (smartglass) and gives a good indication of their plans for 2013 and beyond.

Slide 7 is very interesting as it talks about (in 2010) MS concerns of their competition to "Xbox 720". It specifically labels AppleTV, OnLive, GoogleTV, Wii2 (we now now is Wii U), and PS4.

It focuses on not only gaming, but all the other enhances services all these products provide. Smart TV, streamed gaming, price estimations (wiiu @249 and ps4 @399), and in particular it also list PS4 as having GoogleTV integrated.

Basically, MS is assuming the EXACT same ideas I've laid out in this thread/OP.

Then on the next couple slides it defines the experience 720 will offer. Kinect 2.0, full smart/Win8/Metro vision, DVR functionality, low cost (299), 6x increase over 360 (what I've been saying), i.e. essentially making 720 NOT a purely dedicated console, but a smartTV type device that also has strong gaming applications.

I won't make my "I was right all along" thread just yet as this document was their 2010 overall gameplan and it will be altered before 2013 when 720 launches. However, I think at this point many of you naysayers really need to think outside of the box and see what is clearly headed our way for next-gen.



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I think it's about games. If your machine only played games but it had the games people want (pick any of Call of Duty, Halo, Mario, handheld Pokemon, etc) people would be rushing to buy it.

Any console company that does the above will succeed regardless. I have no doubt MS and Sony will get into a tech war, and Nintendo will try and imitate them badly, but it isn't inevitable if one company realises why people actually buy consoles.

Having an OS and media capabilities etc means two huge bad things for a company. i) Extremely high ongoing maintenance costs, and constant need to be making business deals with content distributors like Netflix or Onlive or Universal, ii) as soon as you fall behind in one tiny feature you lose the tech battle and your sales will crater. See Nokia, RIM, LG etc,. Combine this with an incredible dependence on marketing and image.

I don't understand why a company would want to enter the crowded tech/content market, when all they have to do is what they've been good at since 1986 and make games people want to buy.



Soleron said:

I think it's about games. If your machine only played games but it had the games people want (pick any of Call of Duty, Halo, Mario, handheld Pokemon, etc) people would be rushing to buy it.

Any console company that does the above will succeed regardless. I have no doubt MS and Sony will get into a tech war, and Nintendo will try and imitate them badly, but it isn't inevitable if one company realises why people actually buy consoles.

Having an OS and media capabilities etc means two huge bad things for a company. i) Extremely high ongoing maintenance costs, and constant need to be making business deals with content distributors like Netflix or Onlive or Universal, ii) as soon as you fall behind in one tiny feature you lose the tech battle and your sales will crater. See Nokia, RIM, LG etc,. Combine this with an incredible dependence on marketing and image.

I don't understand why a company would want to enter the crowded tech/content market, when all they have to do is what they've been good at since 1986 and make games people want to buy.

Its always about games content. Wii sold well due to Wii Sports and Wii Fit, it also leveled off due to no 3rd party support and Nintendo themselves focusing on its next gen hardware.

However, none of these companies can ignore the way the market is moving. Its been moving this direction for generations. Its why MS entered gaming in the first place. Its why Nintendo added Netflix, hulu and various TV services to Wii late in its life.

Content is king. Nintendo helped create Android and Android is the dominant mobile OS. It only makes sense for some form of integration, especially with the tablet controller.

All three will have their game content. That is inevitable. But what will be the differentiator? It can't be just first party games.

You can't deny the obvious move by MS with win8. You can't ignore the Vita and what it has already done without Android and Sony's lame attempt to bring playstation brand to Android the so far sub-par Playstation Suite.

You also can't deny that its a logical conclusion that Apple and Google will move stronger into gaming. They did so with music, movies, and books. They've already started to with games and both publically stated gaming will be a big focus in the near future.

The only loss for these companies would be to ignore this. If any of them put out a pure dedicated console with now smart OS base, they would fail and lose big time. They would not only be behind the their more direct and natural competitors, but also Apple and other Android OEMs who put out TV based boxes.

I love Nintendo games and would buy a Nintendo console anyways. However, the price I pay for it will be greatly dependant on this topic.



superchunk said:
Soleron said:

 

Its always about games content. Wii sold well due to Wii Sports and Wii Fit, it also leveled off due to no 3rd party support and Nintendo themselves focusing on its next gen hardware.

However, none of these companies can ignore the way the market is moving. Its been moving this direction for generations. Its why MS entered gaming in the first place. Its why Nintendo added Netflix, hulu and various TV services to Wii late in its life.

Yes, and they were stupid and wrong to do so.

Content is king. Nintendo helped create Android and Android is the dominant mobile OS. It only makes sense for some form of integration, especially with the tablet controller.
 

No it doesn't make any sense, because it doesn't give them additional sales.

All three will have their game content. That is inevitable. But what will be the differentiator? It can't be just first party games.

Yes. First party games. That is the differentiator. Wii Sports alone propelled the Wii to levels unreachable by the most content rich 360 and PS3 you could imagine. All the 3DS Store in the world didn't do anything like MK7 and 3D Land did.

You can't deny the obvious move by MS with win8.

MS make their money from Windows and Office. Xbox is a drop in the bucket, they privately wouldn't even care if it lost money, it only exists to keep people on Windows. Thus it makes business sense to push Windows and its ecosystem at every opportunity whether it makes financial sense or not. That just isn't true for Sony or Nintendo.

You can't ignore the Vita

How many Vitas has all this expensive content support and OS features got them?

and what it has already done without Android and Sony's lame attempt to bring playstation brand to Android the so far sub-par Playstation Suite.

You also can't deny that its a logical conclusion that Apple and Google will move stronger into gaming. They did so with music, movies, and books. They've already started to with games and both publically stated gaming will be a big focus in the near future.

Google I don't think so. Games don't help their core business, search advertising. Apple will only do so as far as it keeps people buying iPhones, so they have no regard for game quality or attracting big name franchises or making the games people want to buy for themselves. They just want to make it really easy for everyone else to develop and see what sticks. So far, nothing has. (No existing mobile game will have consistent revenue or franchise loyalty. No one is waiting for Angry Birds 2.

The only loss for these companies would be to ignore this. If any of them put out a pure dedicated console with now smart OS base, they would fail and lose big time. They would not only be behind the their more direct and natural competitors, but also Apple and other Android OEMs who put out TV based boxes.

Their loss would be to imagine that gadgets and addons like Android or music will define the gen, or that they can focus on this instead of solid first party development and third party support.

Imagine a white cube 10cm on a side that played only three games at launch: 2D Mario, Mario Kart, Call of Duty. It doesn't do anything else, it just sits there being a dumb box. How much would it sell? I'd say minimum at the pace of the DS.

Now imagine the same box that does everything at launch: full Android shell; streaming TV, music, films; the top 20 titles from iOS and Android's game store; and so on. And its launch games are the Gamecube's, or the Vita's. It'd sell like a GC or Vita.

I love Nintendo games and would buy a Nintendo console anyways. However, the price I pay for it will be greatly dependant on this topic.

Your consumer type is honestly rare. I just don't think people would buy a console wholly or mainly for media reasons, or worse phone-imitation reasons.





Why do you keep saying Nintendo will have an Android OS? I don't think they'd ever try to pair up with a CellPhone Company like that. It just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would do. Plus Sony might be moving to an Air/Cloud Type thing. (See "Sony to never release PS4?" Thread.) Which seems really probable.



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Interesting thread i have to agree with most everything. If i can replace my laptop & tablet with the next xbox or playstation then i would enjoy this very much.



The SoNyntendo PlayshereU is on the way!



If you're correct, and multimedia capabilities are the key draw with the games being just a sideshow, then all three console manufacturers might as well ditch the expensive gaming part now, since a beefed up Roku will beat all three of their consoles handily, as it would have all of the meat at a fraction of a price.

You're putting the cart before the horse. The games remain the central draw on a games console, and they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.



NintendoPie said:
Why do you keep saying Nintendo will have an Android OS? I don't think they'd ever try to pair up with a CellPhone Company like that. It just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would do. Plus Sony might be moving to an Air/Cloud Type thing. (See "Sony to never release PS4?" Thread.) Which seems really probable.

Android isn't a cell phone company, it's the OS Google created (well originally bought out) for mobile devices. I will agree I don't see much point in the Wii U using Android though, even a heavily modified version. The only advantage would be access to the Android market with all the little software apps and games, but if Nintendo gets involved in that it would have to be heavily modified (likely most apps would cost more so that Ninty gets something... also a lot of apps designed around the roaming capabilities of phones/tablets would be useless on the Wii U tablet)

Having said that... @ Superchink: What's this about Nintendo having a hand in designing Android OS originally?

Also I really don't think consumers of the nextbox will give a damn if it runs on Windows 8 or not, it's not going to provide people a real alternative to buying PCs/laptops.



TWRoO said:
NintendoPie said:
Why do you keep saying Nintendo will have an Android OS? I don't think they'd ever try to pair up with a CellPhone Company like that. It just doesn't seem like something Nintendo would do. Plus Sony might be moving to an Air/Cloud Type thing. (See "Sony to never release PS4?" Thread.) Which seems really probable.

Android isn't a cell phone company, it's the OS Google created for mobile devices.

Yes, that is what I meant. I have an Android Phone so I know. I just worded it horribly.