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Forums - Sales - Yearly Hardware Sales Transitions in Japan

Avinash_Tyagi on 16 January 2008

Nintendo should make a 3D RPG Pokemon for Wii, not a battle arena thing, but a full RPG, there will never be a Wii on the shelf again in japan if that comes out (exaggerating a little yes, but there will be a ton of demand)



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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mesoteto on 16 January 2008

^i would play it



 

Neos on 16 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Nintendo should make a 3D RPG Pokemon for Wii, not a battle arena thing, but a full RPG, there will never be a Wii on the shelf again in japan if that comes out (exaggerating a little yes, but there will be a ton of demand)

 you are not exaggerating at all. Kids will be brainwashed by it and will personally come to the nintendo production factories and build their own wii's themselves. It would be that bad!



Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!

 

Gamerace on 16 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Nintendo should make a 3D RPG Pokemon for Wii, not a battle arena thing, but a full RPG, there will never be a Wii on the shelf again in japan if that comes out (exaggerating a little yes, but there will be a ton of demand)

Pokemon MMORPG.  Nintendo wants to drive internet use in Japan?  That would do it.



 

jjseth on 16 January 2008

OK... I must be having some issues as the forum width is set when I view it in IE that I cannot see any numbers after the PSP. Any ideas to help me see further in that chart?



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

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jjseth on 16 January 2008

Nevermind, I just exported the data to excel and could see it.



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

My pokemon brings all the nerds to the yard. And they're like, "You wanna trade cards?" Damn right, I wanna trade cards. I'll trade this, but not my charizard.

Issun on 16 January 2008
ioi said:
Pokemon rescued Nintendo 96-98 in Japan, it is amazing how they lost so much to Sony and the Playstation brand. This also happened in the west of course, but in Japan it was much more obvious. SNES totally dominated 91-95 but Sony were the clever ones when it came to launching the PS - encouraging Japanese developers to come on board, lots of strong first party stuff back then (in Japan - a list of hits from Arc the Lad, PaRapper the Rapper, Xi(Sai), Gran Turismo and so on - all appealing to new audiences) - they did everything right.

I do have to draw obvious parallels between PS / N64 in 96/97 and Wii / PS3 in 07/08 - one console doing the same as last gen, expensive, graphics-heavy, a few big hardcore games but little else of note (N64 is still probably my favourite system ever btw) and the other console cheaper, different, attracting a huge new casual audience. Of course there are differences as well, but it is easy to use history to see how things are likely to play out.

To answer the question about what you do if you are Square Enix - you make FFXIV on Wii, PS2-level graphics (so cheaper) and sell 2-3 times as many as you would on PS3. From a purely business point of view this is likely to be exactly what we see happen. Why plough money into something that isn't selling well. I don't personally expect this to happen with FF XIV or whatever since it is a strong franchise outside of Japan, but more Japanese-centric titles I definitely expect to see following this pattern.

Is this good for gaming? Well that depends on your personal views, but from someone who has been doing this and looking at trends over a number of years I struggle to see how PS3 can really carve out any strong marketshare in Japan - history has shown what works and what doesn't and little about the PS3 format really works in Japan. They are the same problems that face MS with the 360, only Nintendo really seem to understand what sells in Japan these days...

And what is your personal view, is this good for gaming? I want to know, because for me, it isn't. I want more games like Zelda than minigames like Wii Sports. Here is a part from latest interview with Yoichi Wada - Square Enix global president - he share the same opinion.

„Nintendo seems to place a great emphasis on Wii Sports and Fit rather than Zelda, a role-playing game. In my opinion, if they expose the functions in this way, they are making the Wii look like a toy“

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=32093

Rubik's Cube in 1980 won the 1980 German Game of the Year and it is said to be the world's best-selling toy, with some 300,000,000 Rubik's Cubes and imitations sold worldwide. ...from en.wikipedia



kopstudent89 on 16 January 2008

Wow at ioi!!!! very nice analysis and enjoyed every word!

Also yeah i wouldnt be surprised if wii edges over DS this year. i think first half of the yr DS will edge, and second half the wii will be in front...

Another thing i'm seeing is that japan is definately PS3's weakest market by far, and will be this year i think, cuz the siftware appeal isnt that much, and u can see that in 2007. The has much more software with SSBB,wii fit, mario kart, tales of symphonia... these will definately attract more people to buy wiis in japan.



Sri Lumpa on 17 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Nintendo should make a 3D RPG Pokemon for Wii, not a battle arena thing, but a full RPG, there will never be a Wii on the shelf again in japan if that comes out (exaggerating a little yes, but there will be a ton of demand)
Yup, a Pokemon MMORPG for the Wii to hook up the hardcore and an Animal Crossing MMO to hook up the casuals and some more hardcores.

 Then they would have two MMO's that can compete with WoW.



"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"

 

quigontcb on 18 January 2008
brute said:
anyone think a console or handheld will ever beat DS's record of over 8 million in 1 year?

 Wii has a shot, but I don't think it will happen. So much of Japan is an "on the go" country, and a cheap, affordable handheld with a wide-reaching library seems like such a better fit than a stationary home console.

If the Wii doesn't do it, a handheld or console will have to do it soon if the record is to be broken. Japan's population is expected to drastically decrease in the coming years. From all I've read and saw on tv, this is because many Japanese are more career-oriented and less sexually active. Excluding games like PC-card games(solitaire/rook/etc) and flash games, I don't see (traditional handheld/console)gaming becoming as accepted as film and television in Japan(or Europe or America), at least not for many, many decades. With Japan's expected decreasing and rapidly aging population, I don't see the DS's records being broken unless it happens quite soon.



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