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Forums - Sales - Vita 2012 Predicted Sales Chartz 4.08 mil

Kynes said:
Chark said:

Vita saw a large gain of 30,347. Jumping from 19k to 32k in North America, 31k to 41k in Europe, and 4k to 12k in Japan. A 51% increase. Noticable releases include Call of Duty: Black Ops: Declassified selling 65k units in its first 5 days.

Next week will see the results of adding PS Plus to Vita and the upgrades from the 2.0 update, along with Persona 4 Golden and PlayStation All Stars Battle Royale. That along with Black Friday offering Vita bundles for $199 will result in large numbers from the almost 1 year old device. The expectation is 117% yielding 194k units. Any one care to guess the actuall number? I'm shooting for 300k.


It seems that you were a bit optimistic with your prediction.

Indeed. It seems I overestimate consumer knowledge on PS Plus and Vita's features. That or consumer demand for other products overshadowed the Vita offerings. I wouldn't rule out some undertracking for the Vita amongst the chaos, but I doubt it is significant.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

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Chark said:

Indeed. It seems I overestimate consumer knowledge on PS Plus and Vita's features. That or consumer demand for other products overshadowed the Vita offerings. I wouldn't rule out some undertracking for the Vita amongst the chaos, but I doubt it is significant.

What about overestimating consumer interest?



Kenology said:
Chark said:

Indeed. It seems I overestimate consumer knowledge on PS Plus and Vita's features. That or consumer demand for other products overshadowed the Vita offerings. I wouldn't rule out some undertracking for the Vita amongst the chaos, but I doubt it is significant.

What about overestimating consumer interest?

That's not an option on Chark's mind.



Kenology said:
Chark said:

Indeed. It seems I overestimate consumer knowledge on PS Plus and Vita's features. That or consumer demand for other products overshadowed the Vita offerings. I wouldn't rule out some undertracking for the Vita amongst the chaos, but I doubt it is significant.

What about overestimating consumer interest?

Consumer interest is a culmination of a variety of factors. Sales show that there isn't much interest, but that doesn't explain the lack of interest. Lack of product knowledge seems to be a key factor for the Vita right now. Offerings like PS+ launching but having less than anticipated effect indicates a lack of awarness to consumers. The instant game collection should be very attractive, but it is hard to determine awareness for it as we have no concrete numbers for the service. In addition, the Vita itself is a capable device and in line with feature offerings of the hottest selling mobile device while being a dedicated gaming handheld. This feels like a consumer awareness problem which should be suplimented with an agressive advertisment campaign that showcases its non gaming features so the public understands what it is.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark said:

Consumer interest is a culmination of a variety of factors. Sales show that there isn't much interest, but that doesn't explain the lack of interest. Lack of product knowledge seems to be a key factor for the Vita right now. Offerings like PS+ launching but having less than anticipated effect indicates a lack of awarness to consumers. The instant game collection should be very attractive, but it is hard to determine awareness for it as we have no concrete numbers for the service. In addition, the Vita itself is a capable device and in line with feature offerings of the hottest selling mobile device while being a dedicated gaming handheld. This feels like a consumer awareness problem which should be suplimented with an agressive advertisment campaign that showcases its non gaming features so the public understands what it is.

Maybe things like PS+ aren't things people value.  I think you're overestimating interest and underestimating consumer knowledge.  And there's no way for you to know for sure, you're really just guessing - and don't really want to entertain the idea that people just might not be interested in the product at all.



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Kenology said:

Maybe things like PS+ aren't things people value.  I think you're overestimating interest and underestimating consumer knowledge.  And there's no way for you to know for sure, you're really just guessing - and don't really want to entertain the idea that people just might not be interested in the product at all.


"PlayStation Plus subscriptions were also announced to have risen by 259% over last year’s Black Friday period, with customer satisfaction rates allegedly above 95%"

The program isn't that old yet and the instant game collection only started this year. Signs point to lack of consumer knowledge over the offering. The increase in mobile device popularity, the sales of gaming handhelds like the 3DS and the success of last gens handhelds are proof enough that this is a large market with interest in these products. The Vita's problems stem from other causes.

BTW, aparently Vita sold 160,000 in the US last week. Once proper world wide numbers release here I will update the chart.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark said:
Kenology said:

Maybe things like PS+ aren't things people value.  I think you're overestimating interest and underestimating consumer knowledge.  And there's no way for you to know for sure, you're really just guessing - and don't really want to entertain the idea that people just might not be interested in the product at all.


"PlayStation Plus subscriptions were also announced to have risen by 259% over last year’s Black Friday period, with customer satisfaction rates allegedly above 95%"

The program isn't that old yet and the instant game collection only started this year. Signs point to lack of consumer knowledge over the offering. The increase in mobile device popularity, the sales of gaming handhelds like the 3DS and the success of last gens handhelds are proof enough that this is a large market with interest in these products. The Vita's problems stem from other causes.

BTW, aparently Vita sold 160,000 in the US last week. Once proper world wide numbers release here I will update the chart.

That goes with the territory with Black Friday week price slash and bundles.  I don't think people are lining up to buy Vita's just for PS+.  Also, we know how deceptive percentage increases can be with no raw numbers.  Also, that percentage could just as easily be from the PS3 sales this week too, so that really doesn't help your argument that PS+ is unknown or that it sells the Vita.  More like the other way around, people buy Sony hardware for software and THEN sign up for PS+ based on the perks.

EDIT: Is 160k a good figure to you based on the circumstances?



Kenology said:

That goes with the territory with Black Friday week price slash and bundles.  I don't think people are lining up to buy Vita's just for PS+.  Also, we know how deceptive percentage increases can be with no raw numbers.  Also, that percentage could just as easily be from the PS3 sales this week too, so that really doesn't help your argument that PS+ is unknown or that it sells the Vita.  More like the other way around, people buy Sony hardware for software and THEN sign up for PS+ based on the perks.


That's a lot of if.

Anyway, consider the PS+ members who own a PS3. Now that it is on Vita they now have 6 Vita games and will be amassing 24 over the course of a year.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

Chark said:

BTW, aparently Vita sold 160,000 in the US last week. Once proper world wide numbers release here I will update the chart.

Wait, what week are you talking about here? Where'd you hear this number?



the_dengle said:
Chark said:

BTW, aparently Vita sold 160,000 in the US last week. Once proper world wide numbers release here I will update the chart.

Wait, what week are you talking about here? Where'd you hear this number?


Black Friday week. Aparently VGChartz undertracked the Vita by half. Sony made the announcment and every news site is making their rounds.

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2012/11/29/over-160000-ps-vitas-525000-ps3-sold-during-black-friday-week/



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(