40mil? You  think it'll be discontinued or something then? Or just a GC moment where the support isn't there?

I think 40m is reasonable low-end. But I'm sure it will do higher than that (at least around 50m).

I suppose it does depend on how Sony continue to support the thing. It's already (pretty much) lost the battle in Japan, and if the 3DS gets MH4 and a Pokemon in the next 12 months (possible), then not even a Monster Hunter exclusive will bring it back. 

As for the other territories, there's still nothing really coming out which could push more than 1-2k extra units that I can see, or that may sell 1mil units. And that's GOT to worry Sony, unless they'll be happy to leave it to 'die' on the market for a couple years...

Vita will do much better in the west than in Japan... and I think Sony is trying to focus exactly in this:

Catch the Xbox 360 crowd, which Nintendo has no grip whatsoever. The big games on 360 will be the big games on Vita - COD, AC, Bioshock, etc...

To me that sucks if it really happens, but some people would be happy.

I suppose that Microsoft has no handheld, so if they can offer games which can capture that market, then all shall be well.

In addition, however, I feel as though Nintendo are trying incredibly hard to capture that market, what with exclusive Resident Evil, Monster Hunter etc. published by Nintendo. Also, new IP's from Nintendo, like Dillon's Rolling Western and Sakurai Samurai just goes to show that Nintendo are willing to try newthings. It'll be hard for Nintendo, and for Sony, for that matter, to win people back. But at least both companies are taking steps towards it...

The GC would be a good analogy in a sense. I think Sony will focus on profit and gather support releasing strong 1st-party titles instead of unleashing pricecuts and buying exclusives.

It could sell more, specially if the market still grows a bit in the next three years or so, but in the end though, iPhone, Android and all that stuff will eat into both portables real hard :/

I wish I'm wrong though. I'd like to see more sales for both of them.

Western developers cannot be relied upon to support dedicated handhelds, true historically and today.

Very true. I look at my selection of handheld games and most of them are either Nintendo games, Square-Enix games or other JRPG's. Very few games from western devs, because shooters or WRPG's don't 'work' on handhelds as well...

I don't really see that having much of a chance of happening.  Many of the major third party games announced this year don't even have a Vita version.  Then next year when the 360's successor comes out how do you really expect Vita to compete? 

I think Vita will sell 30+ million less than PSP and that it will have a lot of trouble in the West to be honest.  I already see signs of major Western third party support for the Vita falling by the wayside (go read comments by Activision and Epic about Vita for example).