Vita drops even further back this week, now less than 70k this week, with another 10% sales decrease, and with nothing major on the horizon...how low will the Vita go? I reckon 55-60k is possible in the next few months...

Vita- 65,566 this week (-10%), 3DS 174,341 (-10%)

I think they didn't think their business model through, I.E. expensive machine + expensive games + expensive memory carts vs technology out of 2006 Nintendo and iCan't do anything wrong Apple.

They seem to have the strategy of taking a sledgehammer to a sword fight. That only works if they get the first swing.

Very true. The issue is, it's the same thing they did with the PSP, and it came a distant second. 

Now that there's more options out there, both the 3DS and the Vita will struggle much more. And the Vita doesn't seem to be distinguishing itself enough from the crowd...so far...

The big issue is that all of the non-gaming functions of these units (Vita and 3Ds) are done better by other devices. -- which also can play some games. And the target market for the Vita is much more likely to (a) have another device and/or (b) only want to carry one device. In other word, demographics and smart phones usage could doom the PSV.

Mike from Morgantown

Actually it is kind of worse than what they did with the PSP. It's like every 'pro' pissed them off when the designed it so they had to come right back with a 'con' to make up for it.

The problem isn't that the Vita is a sucky piece of hardware, the problem is that they made it 'too good' in ways that people don't appreciate immediately and some not at all. In making the system 'too good' they had to also make it 'not good enough' in many ways people do appreciate. It is sort of too big to want to take out with you all the time but not big enough to compete with the things you have at home like your PS3/iPad/Whatever.

The problem in my mind is that they listened to their hearts and made an amazing system with all their heart. They didn't listen to their heads and compromise on their design philosophy. They made something which was too big, too expensive, too complicated. What sucks in business decision making is that often the right decisions go unrewarded and the wrong decisions get rewarded but for the wrong reasons. Unfortunately they didn't make the right decision but this time they go unrewarded for it. The PSP Go was the right decision but they abandoned that idea for the wrong reasons.

I like PS Vita and don't think it will be a failure, but the whole dedicated handheld market will shrink a bit this generation. Nintendo is holding their part strong and handling it better. As for Sony, they can't continue to use the same business model for their portable gaming device any longer than this generation. If their next portable gaming machine will be similar to PSP or PSV, they will fail. They will have to change it in future, change their mind. Otherwise it will be a stagnation and game-over. But for now, PSV will be at least moderately successful (after all, they are making money on it and it will cover all costs within three years) and alive at least five years, as I can see it.

After E3 I will judge for myself - to buy or not to buy this thing.

I predict 100m for the 3DS and a solid 40m for the Vita.

I would troll on the Vita but it would be like shooting a blind man in the face.

Far too easy, unnecessary, and cruel.

After this week, the Vita needs to stablize at 40k to sell 2 million this month. That should be easy enough, but it'll be otherwise by a hair ahead or a step behind since nothing worth noting is coming out, Disgaea 3 doesn't count since it's not a system seller or it kind of is but only in by a hundred units. Also, I think the Japan sales are on the last of it's life(until software comes out that is).

And they haven't followed up the possibilties of the console with the games either, and the advertisement has been poor...

You're correct that the console is an amazing console. I don't think anyone's denying that. But, as you say, it's just, to an extent, TOO good for its own right, a little like the PS3. It seems to straddle too many middle grounds IMO. Not quite a portable, but you can't have full console experiences on it. Not quite a budget system, but not expensive enough for it to be a luxury item etc. 

A lot of these issues will be improved when/if a large number of high-quality games are launched, though. But for now, I think you've hit the nail on the proverbial head