Was this study done before the Vita didn't even manage to do half as well as the terrible 3DS launch?

The way things are looking on the software side, there is a clear advantage in the 3DS court. Obviously it has Nintendo, who is by far the top developer on the handheld front, but it also has the support of the third parties who chose to bet on 3DS this time around - including those who bet on PSP in the last generation of handhelds - as Monster Hunter is now a 3DS franchise - whereas before it was exclusively PSP.

The current state is that 3DS already has a very large and widening lead over the Vita, and the future is certainly looking a lot brighter on the 3DS front.

I am not at all sure what the actual data this group is using to make these claims, but it is apparent that they are already seeing the opposite results they predicted.

BTW don't hold your breath.

everything´s possible but thats unlikely...

Well DS didnt sold that well on Launch and Psp was beasting back in 2005.

This is the reason why I don't typically believe "according to research" studies lol

I wonder what the argument is?

Maybe that smartphones will "steal" more of the Nintendo market then Sony one.

If anything won't smartphones compete more with the Vita?

dropping Vita price ( included its memory card and games ) will make this case happen sooner cause i know lots and lots of people are waiting for that...

This basically what they said about PS3 earlier this gen, that it would surpass Wii and 360 and be in the lead.

Well, it's not impossible, just a bit unlikely.

Thats because the chart is for Installed base, rather than units sold. If Wii had higher numbers between 2008~2009, and some lower numbers for X360 and PS3, it would be more beleivable.

EDIT: PS3 instead of PS4