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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD January: X360 #1 270k, 49% share, PS3 > Wii = 281k Combined

mrstickball on 09 February 2012
TheFallen said:
dark_gh0st_b0y said:
RolStoppable said:
dark_gh0st_b0y said:

if Nintendo was smart, they would include facebook, youtube, twitter, e-mail and all that apps, even an app-store because 3DS is capable, attack tablets with their own as they did attacked gaming handhelds

i think this is going to happen sooner or later, maybe PSV has got more tablet bonus features, like youtube on internet browser which is huge lack of the 3DS browser

Sarcasm is okay, but don't take it too far.

i know iShit won't kill handhelds but it's definitely taking some sales away, i know some cases...

some friends of mine, DS owners got iPad and they are telling me all the time how great the games are, many people got iPad in order to download and play $2 mini-games....


They paid $500+ dollars to download $2 mini-games? The mind boggles.


Spoken like a person who truly doesn't understand the mobile market :-



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Seece on 09 February 2012

Hmm, fair bit of overtracking :-/

3DS 750k overtracked in US according to Nintendo, they provided SW updates as well.

Mario Kart 7 at 1.3m (260k overtracked), SM3DSL at 1.7m (430k OT), LOZ:SS 1.3m, 130k OT

X360 looks a fair bit over as well 400k~

Perhaps next month we'll see some adjustments to NPD, something definitely seems fishy. Nintendo announced 39m with last Dec NPD, but so far total lifetime is at 38.9 with January.



 

thismeintiel on 09 February 2012
Seece said:
Still, the January results are so poor that their validity should be questioned, says Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter. From 2004 to 2011, January software sales have averaged $518 million, making this month's $355.9 million figure "just hard to digest," he says. "It also makes no sense that sales are below the level from 2004, when games were cheaper and the installed base of consoles was much lower. ... I don't know if the NPD is getting faulty data, but these numbers make no sense."

Actually, if you think about it, these numbers make perfect sense.  This has been the longest console gen ever.  Comparing 2004 to this year is just ridiculous on Pachter's part.  In January 2004, the PS2 had only been out for less than 4 years and the Xbox and Gamecube less than 3 years.  Jump to 2012 and you have the 360 finishing up its 6th full year on the market, while the Wii and PS3 are about to finish up their 5th.  It's been one hell of a run this gen, but its pretty obvious its winding down.  I think this confirms a NeXbox and PS4 by at least 2013.



 

TheSource on 09 February 2012

I never really understood the whole "we'll get new consoles from Sony and Microsoft in 2014 or 2015" thing.

Sony sold over 4m consoles in the US every year from 1997 through last year.

There is the distinct possibility that they'll sell under 4m in 2012, they'd only have to decline 20% vs. 2011, and they appear to be down 45% so far. Imagine if PS3 fell to 3.5m in 2012, and then 2.5m in 2013 as Vita flopped (not saying it will - but its possible), and PS4 didn't release - how the hell would SCEA even operate - particularly with the price of software, the volume of software, and the price of hardware all coming down? It isn't hard to imagine, without PS4 in 2013, Sony selling say, 2.5m Vita, 2.5m PS3, 0.5m PSP - those are not good numbers in absolute or relative terms when Sony has spent 1997-2011 selling 4-11m systems in the US per year.

The US market is going to need PS4 pretty soon.

Nintendo and Microsoft are in different positions, Microsoft can afford one or several bad years while it waits out an opportunity. If X360 was down 30% all year they'd be at 5.1m in 2012 - certainly a solid number - but they'd probably like to hold console sales at over 5m in the US if possible (X360 did 4.6m-4.8m from 2007-2009 in the US) which bodes well for a new Xbox next year, possibly early 2013 even.

Nintendo looks like it should recover fairly well in the US by 2013 after a down two years. Even 2012 might be decent, say 6m 3DS, 3m Wii, 2m Wii U, 2m DS - those aren't 2008-2009 figures but they're not dramatically off 2006 / 2010 when Nintendo's portable and console business weren't completely in sync. By 2013, they could be up to 10m 3DS, 6m Wii U, 1.5m Wii, 1m DS, almost comparable to 2008-2009 if they handle it well enough.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Seece on 09 February 2012

3DS at 150 - 250k apparantly, given Nintendo's 4/4.1m end of 2011 figure, now saying it's hit 4.25m.



 

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Seece on 09 February 2012
TheSource said:

I never really understood the whole "we'll get new consoles from Sony and Microsoft in 2014 or 2015" thing.

Sony sold over 4m consoles in the US every year from 1997 through last year.

There is the distinct possibility that they'll sell under 4m in 2012, they'd only have to decline 20% vs. 2011, and they appear to be down 45% so far. Imagine if PS3 fell to 3.5m in 2012, and then 2.5m in 2013 as Vita flopped (not saying it will - but its possible), and PS4 didn't release - how the hell would SCEA even operate - particularly with the price of software, the volume of software, and the price of hardware all coming down? It isn't hard to imagine, without PS4 in 2013, Sony selling say, 2.5m Vita, 2.5m PS3, 0.5m PSP - those are not good numbers in absolute or relative terms when Sony has spent 1997-2011 selling 4-11m systems in the US per year.

The US market is going to need PS4 pretty soon.

Nintendo and Microsoft are in different positions, Microsoft can afford one or several bad years while it waits out an opportunity. If X360 was down 30% all year they'd be at 5.1m in 2012 - certainly a solid number - but they'd probably like to hold console sales at over 5m in the US if possible (X360 did 4.6m-4.8m from 2007-2009 in the US) which bodes well for a new Xbox next year, possibly early 2013 even.

Nintendo looks like it should recover fairly well in the US by 2013 after a down two years. Even 2012 might be decent, say 6m 3DS, 3m Wii, 2m Wii U, 2m DS - those aren't 2008-2009 figures but they're not dramatically off 2006 / 2010 when Nintendo's portable and console business weren't completely in sync. By 2013, they could be up to 10m 3DS, 6m Wii U, 1.5m Wii, 1m DS, almost comparable to 2008-2009 if they handle it well enough.

If the 150k - 250k figure is true the 3DS certainly isn't trending for a 6m year. It was out for 10 months of 2011? With a drastic price cut for 5 of them, and hit 4m for the year. If the 3DS is around say 200k, in the middle of that figure, I can't imagin what it's going to be like in the middle of summer. They'll need a redesign to think about hitting 6m this year IMO.

Wii is gonna fall sharper than 1.5m as well, and I doubt Nintendo is even going to forecast 4m WW for DS in 2012, let alone 2m in US.



 

Darth Tigris on 09 February 2012

My post from last month's NPD still stands: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4379256

In fact, it feels even worse now ...



reviniente on 10 February 2012

Point of saturation or not, those numbers seem way off. Back to '04 levels? Really?



yo_john117 on 10 February 2012

Oh god these numbers are beyond abysmal. I don't think there will be any consoles that pass even 10 million this year, price cut or not.

Going below 100k per week is a guarantee for all 3 before March (if it hasn't happened to the Wii and 360 already) at this point.

When you think about it those numbers mean that the PS3/Wii could have dipped as low as 25k and the 360 as low as 40k in the US. And if these numbers are anything to go by, Vgchartz may have overtracked in other countries as well.



Conegamer on 10 February 2012

We need new console guys!

These numbers are horrid.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.