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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD Dec: X360 #1, 1.7m, 900k - 1m Wii, PS3

Adinnieken said:
Dampfi said:

Somehow dissapointing numbers, although I understand that people are trying to get a deal on Black Friday rather than buying a console in December. In addition to that, not only do all home consoles look massively overtracked, but Kinect as well. It is neither to be found in the December Top 10, nor in the yearly Top 10 of NPD.

NPD doesn't track bundled software.  Just Dance (III ?) would be the only game that would come near the top ten, though mostly due to Wii sales.   I don't think there is a single Kinect only game that sold enough to break the top ten in SKUs, though possibly the top ten for Xbox 360.


Thanks, that explains a lot. But still, Kinect might be overtracked too, or am I wrong?



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To put some perspective on December NPD numbers, people have to understand that early projections by industry analysts (retail sales) for December were that retail sales were off. The belief, in eary December, was that shoppers had taken advantage of Black Friday deals. Especially on high-end gift items. Subsequently, November saw extraordinary increases, and December saw extraordinary decreases. Year-end projects suggest that some retailers did end up doing well in December, but clearly gaming took a hit.

It would be easy to draw a conclusion that gaming is suffering due to the industry saturation in the US or fatigue with this generation. The reality is that this downturn is the result of a weakened economy and shoppers having to take the best deal or hold off buying altogether.

A woman I had corresponded with dealt with this very struggle. Her son wanted an Xbox 360 for Christmas. Well before the holiday season started, I told her that retailers would be offering tremendous deals for an Xbox 360 on Black Friday. When the Black Friday specials started hitting the Internets, I forwarded that information on to her. In the end she had to decide not to purchase a console because she just couldn't swing the cost.

I don't think she's alone in having to make those kinds of financial decisions. I think she, along with a great deal of the nation, made one or two big-ticket item purchases and then purchased necessities.

I think a price cut on the Xbox 360 is inevitable. Maybe a little sooner than Microsoft expected to.



So does this mean that, of the forecasts listed on the OP, it's Pachter that has proven to be the most accurate?

The guy gets plenty of abuse on here, perhaps he's due some credit.



makingmusic476 said:
Those 360 numbers are fucking with my head.

It's times like this we realize just how little we know about what we don't know when it comes to shipment/sell through data and the reporting of such.


There is another factor, returns.

Retailers as of December 26th in the US were reporting higher than anticipated returns.  Especially on Black Friday deals.  This could have been the cause of some of the numbers looking good on one end, but not looking good at the other.

A return would look like a sale in the given week it was sold, but all of a sudden at the end of the month, the retailer has an unexpected increase in inventory and the console has a reduction in sales.  I doubt VGChartz tracks returns, other than as inventory on hand.  It's entirely possible that shipments to retailers and returns collided making it look as though the channel was stuffed with inventory.



McGran said:

So does this mean that, of the forecasts listed on the OP, it's Pachter that has proven to be the most accurate?

The guy gets plenty of abuse on here, perhaps he's due some credit.


I don't think Patcher numbers are the best, at all. He has a good prediction number for the Wii, but atrocious for PS3. EEDAR and VGC are better predictions in my opinion, as they have proportionally overestimated similarly all the home consoles in this month numbers, not on only some consoles.



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McGran said:

So does this mean that, of the forecasts listed on the OP, it's Pachter that has proven to be the most accurate?

The guy gets plenty of abuse on here, perhaps he's due some credit.

He's still unexceptionally off.  As an analyst that gets paid to offer guidance for investors, his information should be better and the analysis he offers conservative.  When he's wrong because he's conservative with his analysis, his investors still benefit.  When it's bullish, they may not.

That's what's of concern in this whole thing.  It's one thing for VGChartz to be off, they aren't advising clients at Wedbush.  Pachter doesn't get off so easily.  He's got contacts in the industry, either he got fed bullshit or he's the one feeding it.  Either way it's about people offering really bad information.  No one here is paying VGChatrz for their info, Pachter is a different story.  People pay him for investment advice.  Being off less than everbody else in a bad way stll isn't good, it just doesn't look as bad. 

If Pachter can't phone a few bell weathers to find out how things are looking retail wise then where does he get/base his information from?  Does he just pull it out of his ass?  I would expect better.  Had he been at 2m or less, maybe a pass but 2.3m was still a bit bullish in my view.



kowenicki said:

360 adjusted down 729k for December alone
PS3 adjusted down 340k for December alone
Wii adjusted down 711k for December alone

Wow....



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Book - Malazan Book of the Fallen series 

Game - Metro Last Light

TV - Deadwood

Music - Forest Swords 

why didn't you directly ask him if XBOX360 is WW #1 in 2011? If he says no or refuses to answer, it means XBOX360 didn't make it~~~



pezus said:

I tweeted to Greenberg, didn't expect a response but got one

 

Aaron Greenberg
 A lot of very aggressive Black Friday offers in November, each year more and more people are buying earlier.

 

This is what I suspected. Especially with the state the economy is in. Well done!



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

zhao3gold said:
why didn't you directly ask him if XBOX360 is WW #1 in 2011? If he says no or refuses to answer, it means XBOX360 didn't make it~~~

that's exactly the point, he won't give an answer but this doesn't mean that 360 didn't make it just means he doesn't answer like he won't to 95% of questions. these guys only answer to "normal" questions without "war" desires^^