Yeah FFXIII-2 should do about half of what FFXIII did first week in Japan and it should end up with about one million this year.

360 I think, multiplatform games generally sell better on 360 than PS3, and I expect this year to maintain that trend

If VGZ track PS3 SW correctly then no doubt it will be ahead :)

It'll be pretty damn close. With the extra boost Sony is getting from its price cut (especially in EMEAA and Japan), I think a lot of multi-plat games are going to be closer this holiday.

For MW3, I think the lead PS3 usually has for it in EMEAA and Japan could be even larger this year, which will help combat the gap in Americas. So I think the gap at the end of the year will be more like 1.5 million, instead of the normal 2 million or so.

For Skyrim, the same will hold true. The gap between the last Elder Scrolls was ~1.1 million. Of course, that was early in this gen and it launched months later on the PS3. This time that it not the case. I see Skyrim selling more in EMEAA on the PS3 and there being a larger gap in favor of the PS3 in Japan. Skyrim will probably be a tie, but may end up in favor of the PS3 thanks to those 2 regions.

For AC:Revelations, I see it being a tie, again thanks to the boost in EMEAA and Japan. If it does go in favor of the 360, it will only be by ~100K or so. So nothing that will really tip the scales.

Of course, we already know what's going to happen with FF13-2. It will pretty much be like a PS3 exclusive in Japan. So yea, a PS3 lead of 1-1.5 million lead could be right.

Some are saying Kinect SW will push the 360 ahead, however, I'm not seeing it. Sure Kinect SW, mainly Kinect Adventures, will get a boost, but it's not like Kinect games are flying off the shelves. Look at Dance Central 2, for example. In 2 weeks, the first one sold over 230K. Dance Central 2 has only pushed ~160K. It's total for Week 2 is just over 42K, a number the original hadn't dropped to in its first 10 weeks. Then you have Kinect Sports 2. In it's first 2 weeks it sold ~164K, while the original pulled in ~458K. It's total for the 2nd week was just over 60K, again, a number the original hadn't dropped to in its first 10 weeks. And these aren't scrapping the bottom of the barrel for comparisons, these were some of the top selling Kinect games. So, Kinect may do alright in Americas, but everywhere else it's almost nonexistent.

Also, isn't PS3 SW undertracked here? Not unless the PS3 had ~75-80 million (I think that's the gap we had between shipped in Sept) games on store shelves. Seems a bit much to me.

I don't think VGC is known for accurate software sales. They are an indication, but nothing to calculate on.
MS does not publish Xbox 360 software sales at all, so there is nothing to calculate from. It is basically guessed.

Another point is that Digital Sales became quite big on the Xbox 360, which is not tracked at all. Same for bundled download codes like we are seeing right now with Halo Reach.

I think the Xbox 360 will overtake the PS3 in this department, but overall it is a tie due to bad data.

I think it will get overtaken due to Halo CEA plus all the Kinect exclusives (mainy Kinect Adventures)

Plus there are a bunch of bundled 360 games that are going to sell millions before the end of the year (4-6 of them I think)

But the gap is 2.08 million.  That changes your mind, right? 

well seriously you give too many hope for your artice

Do what?  What does this have to do with a skating rink? 

I think it will be about even. MW3 and Halo and Kinect to a lesser extent will all give Xbox a lift but ps3 hardware is selling strong on the back of the price cut and software will also reflect this (and vice versa). Add to this FF13-2 in Japan and the launch of the PSV which should also increase interest in the ps3 as a side effect and i see this being pretty close.